Yu Jie
How much China will support Russia is one of the most important issues in the Ukrainian war.On February 20, US Secretary of State Brosky warned that China may soon provide weapons to Moscow ("fatal support").However, on February 24, China, the day when Russia invaded Ukraine's first anniversary, released a position document calling for the end of conflicts through political means, but it obviously did not mention the "unlimited partnership relationship" with Russia.
China's goal is to make itself a neutral mediation.In fact, the relationship between Beijing and Russia has not changed. Even in the past year, this relationship has increasingly distressed Chinese diplomats.Their work is to continue to achieve a delicate balance, but as Russian President Putin continues to increase in nuclear marginal policies and exceptional remarks, this task has become increasingly difficult.
As Putin praises the jungle law in the most cruel form, China must pay attention not to be involved in the conflict too much.After all, Russia is obviously disadvantaged, while China is extremely hoped to repair relations with major European economies.Of course, Putin really wants to show that he has China to support his back. This is also his recent initiative to meet Wang Yi, the highest -level diplomat in China, and hinted that Chinese President Xi Jinping is about to visit (compiled by: Xi Jinping has visited Russia from March 20th to 22nd)reason.This diplomatic progress allows him to show China's contradictions as the actual recognition of invasion.
Although China is likely to be loser with Russia, we must remember the reasons why China and the Kremlin maintain a good relationship, which is not limited to the Ukrainian war.First of all, the two countries share nearly 4,300 kilometers (about the width of Europe), and the exact position of these border lines was finally finalized until the beginning of this century.
But to this day, the shadow of the division of the Soviet Union from 1950 to the 1960s still shrouded both sides, and it was impossible to dissipate quickly.China, which focuses on the movement of the United States and allies in East Asia and India -Pacific, cannot withstand confrontation or turmoil in other border areas.
In addition, unlike "Western Collective", China's foreign policy has always been determined by interests rather than values.Even the close connection with Russia is mainly based on the common dissatisfaction between the two countries to the US hegemony.By deepening bilateral cooperation, in recent years, they have been able to form a certain degree of status to balance the United States.
However, Putin's reckless adventure in Ukraine has imposed a series of new economic, financial and political risks to Xi Jinping and the newly established Politburo team.The war launched by Russia has made Western countries unite more firmly than before.As Sino -US relations fall into a new low, Chinese leaders expect to avoid alienation at the same time to alienate one of the largest trading partners in the country: the European Union.
This is why Xi Jinping and Chinese diplomats are cautious to accept the content of the Kremlin's conversation carefully.It is not an attractive option for China that hopes that the country's economy can rebound after the implementation of the "crown disease zero" policy after many years of "crown disease clear" policy.In the process of trying to keep diplomatic and trade channels unblocked, China's main strategy is to guarantee to European countries that it will use its own relationship with Russia to limit Putin to the deployment of nuclear weapons.
At the same time, China is re -promoting to strengthen the connection with the global southern countries. Many of these countries will not look at the Ukrainian war from a moral perspective like Western countries.China's recent position documents emphasize energy and food security, or they may have the same sense of developing countries. They have been disturbed by the war's negative impact on the economy.Most non -Western countries hope to promote the recovery of the epidemic through the revitalization of trade and investment, because they do not have the recent booming national defense industry.
If China consciously contradictions with the entire West, not only with the United States, it should avoid getting closer to Russia.But rationality may not win.The Ukraine War continued to test the ability of China to travel in conflict and rapidly changing emotions.
This may be the last few opportunities for China to receive a global recognition and praise by assisting the resolution of major international crises.But Xi Jinping had to give him a "unlimited" friend in the Kremlin, and clearly delineated a upper limit.
The author is the Institute of Royal International Affairs
Senior Researcher of China Affairs in the Asia -Pacific Project
English Original Title: China's Precarious Balanting Act
All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.
