Times Time Turns
On March 10, under the mediation in China, Saudi Arabia signed a joint statement in Beijing to announce the restoration of diplomatic relations and trigger the shaking of world politics and public opinion.This means that since Sater and Iran's diplomatic conflicts caused by religion in 2016, after seven years, the two highly opposed Middle East powers have achieved significant reconciliation.
Why did Saudi Arabia and Iran suddenly announce the end of the state of breaking diplomatic relations and restore diplomatic relations?Where will the relationship between the two countries go after Shati resumed?What impact will it have on the situation in the Middle East and international politics?What are the role and role of China in Shay Finter?
Saudi Arabia and Iran are both in the Middle East. Both the population, the area of land, or the political and economic strength, are ranked among the top five in the Middle East.Both are important energy powers, and oil and natural gas reserves rank among the top five in the world.
But Saudi Arabia and Iran are rivals.The grievances of the two have a long history and ingrained.The majority of Saudi citizens are Arabs, and 90%of citizens are Islamic believers.The main ethnic group of Iran is Persians, and most of the people belong to the Islamic Shiite.
Regardless of national, religious beliefs, and political systems, Saudi Arabia and Iran have huge differences and even profound oppositions.The conflict between the interests of the two countries in reality has exacerbated this opposition, which is more intense and difficult to reconcile.
Since the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, Hoameni, the highest spiritual leader of Iran, and followers advocated the "output revolution", trying to subvert the royal royal regime, including Saudi Arabia, as well as promoting Shiites to resist Sunnigroup.Saudi Arabia has also emerged with Vahabiism and regards Shiites as a deadly enemy.
So Shay's relationship deteriorated sharply and started a fierce game in the Middle East.Iran supports Shiites and regimes in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and other countries, and encourages the Shiites of the Shiites of Barin, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia to create the "Shiites Crescent Month" as a picture.Fighting against Saudi -headed Sunni forces.Saudi Arabia combined with the UAE, Qatar, Barin, Kuwait, Turkey and other Sunni countries to block Iran and target Shiites in various countries.
In short, Saudi Arabia and Iran each have long -term games in the Middle East and outside.The most typical performance is that the two sides supported the agents in the Civil War of the Yemen, and performed bloody fights on the southern edge of the Arabian Peninsula.Saudi Arabia is strictly targeted in Shiites in China, leading to the trigger of Saudi Iran's broken diplomatic relations, that is, the Saudi government has executed the well -known Shiite priests, social activist Nimir and dozens of other Shiites.
But with the changes in the domestic situation of Saudi Arabia and Iran, both parties intend to reduce external conflicts and concentrate on handling internal affairs.
Saudi Arabia, whether it is the royal family's power struggle and corruption, or the voices of the people's pursuit of human rights and feminism, and the weak economic growth under the single oil industry, have made the Saudi royal regime uneasy.Under such circumstances, Saudi Arabia does not want to over -conflict with Iran at least for the time being to create a peaceful external environment and concentrate their strength to deal with domestic problems.
Iran also has similar needs.Since the Iranian nuclear agreement was torn by the Trump regime and restarted sanctions against Iraq, Iran's domestic poverty, corruption, and violence have been greatly intensified, and social contradictions have become more acute.The people are extremely dissatisfied with internal affairs and diplomacy, protesting this one after another.Last year, the Kurdish female Ami was killed by torture because she did not follow the "head scarf order". The large -scale protests and violent conflicts caused by hundreds of people have caused hundreds of people to die and tens of thousands of people. So far, they have not ended.
Therefore, Iran is also reluctant to continue to fall into a zero -harmonious struggle with Saudi Arabia, but wants to get a chance to get gasp, prioritize domestic turmoil and disputes with other Shiites allies.
Therefore, Saudi Arabia and Iran have the desire to reduce conflicts and ease the relationship.In this context, the peaceful talks and repeats of the two countries are logically.
This mediation and signing of contracts in Beijing reflects the increasing international influence of China and deepened intervention in Middle East affairs.In the past, China often played relatively secondary roles in mediation, and it was just a regular mediation after Europe and the United States.However, China is becoming more and more unwilling to be a "supporting role" and trying to dominate some international disputes.
The oil and natural gas resources in the Middle East are rich, and the geographical strategy is important. Many powerful and influential powers are also worthy of winning.
Not only is Saudi Arabia and Iran urgently needing China to mediate, but China is also very eager to make this "business".As mentioned earlier, China pays great attention to the rich Saudi Arabia and Iran, and hopes to strengthen its penetration into the Middle East.Cominging the Shati relationship is obviously harmless to China.
More importantly, in the past few years, China has also been in the situation of internal and external difficulties, and it needs to be achieved and breakthrough.Whether it is the long -term "clear zero" blow to the domestic economy and people's livelihood, or the conflict caused by the national interests and ideology, and the sharp warmth of the recent recent Japanese and South Korean relations, China is full of crisis senseEssence
Therefore, China hopes to recover a city in diplomacy, while Saudi Arabia and Iran hope that there are neutrals to mediate, and the three parties take their needs.In addition, intervention in Shati relations and the situation in the Middle East with the way to mediate international disputes also meets the "political correctness" of international peace. Not only will they not be criticized, but they can also win praise.
Therefore, China actively reconcile the relationship between Shay and succeed in great success, which is the inevitable result of water to complete.
Regardless of Saudi Arabia or Iran, it eases the tension with each other, and it is conducive to concentrating on handling domestic affairs.Both countries can temporarily let go of the hegemony attempt and calm the difficult internal turbulence.
But this kind of reconciliation is temporary, limited, appropriate, not long -term and fundamental.In the short period of medium, Saudi Arabia and Iran have indeed brought some relaxation and stability to the Middle East, bringing some hope to achieve long -term peace in the Middle East.
But in the long run, due to the differences between the two sides in the nation and sects, the strong confrontation of national interests and ideology, the peace and reconciliation under the measurement of authority must be unstable and unstable.Regardless of the Shay relationship or the situation in the Middle East, there is no possibility of lasting peace.
The author is a Chinese strategic analysis magazine writer
International Political Researcher
