Source: Bloomberg
Author: Jan-Patrick Barnert
After the closure of the Silicon Valley Bank has just occurred, everyone seems to only care about the potential impact of stores and its potential impact on other global banks. Now investors have finally noticed that a much larger victim, that is, the US economy.
Without ignoring the internal risk of the financial system, if you "only" consider the threat of another bank's crisis (especially in Europe), the market response in the past few days seems to be a bit overwhelming.
But if you jump out of the bank's crowding threat and think about the risks of the stock market and other areas, then you may find that a big decline may have just begun.Earlier this year, the good economic performance of the economy made US stocks shine, and more and more people began to think about the possibility of "not landing".Now "landing" is returned to people's sight, and it may soon become a baseline forecast.
Federik Hildner, the founder and CEO of the
Conflunte Capital, said, "We finally see the pain caused by currency tightening, and the Silicon Valley bank incident triggered the rapid decline of the US economy."
Bloomberg's US financial status index has fallen to a low point last year, and it may have fallen further.Michael Shaoul Michael Shaoul, CEO of MarketField Asset Management, said: "I'm worried that we are entering the period of lending standards to be greatly tightened. If this is the case, it will affect economic performance."
Jan Hatzius, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, agreed with this view. He said that "it is difficult to fully believe that Sunday's intervention will curb the pressure faced by small banks. Small banks play an important role in the macro economy. In the future, their future willLoan loans may become much more conservative. "
This may bring a huge problem to the enterprise because they may lose their unused credit quota, and it is difficult to apply for a new quota."My suggestion to business people said that before you really need money, you can apply from high -quality banks to the credit quota. Because you may not get it in the future."
The Charlie Mcelligott of Nomura refers to the recent event "the impact of" financial conditions accidentally tightened ".He said that in the long run, this may prevent the banking system from exerting the role of conductive media, and its impact on the economy in the future will be much significantly more significant than now.
Marketing deployment shows that the measures that have been taken at present are not just to prevent investors prevent single short -term risk events.The hedging transactions of the tail risk are increasing, and the VIX bullish period is at the highest level since 2019.
The risks of monetary policy errors have also increased to the economy. The Fed is now equivalent to two buckets of water.The estimation of the Fed's policy interest rate peak is rapidly declining. Although the inflation problem is far from solving, the market's expectations for the interest rate at the end of the year have dropped from 5.5%a week ago to 4%.Hatzius said, "Although we believe that if we weaken financial stability, the Fed may need to further tighten the monetary policy to curb inflation, but at present they may be able to give priority to ensuring financial stability and use it as an imminent issue.Inflation is considered to be solved in the middle period. "
