Zeng Yongchang
The engines of China's reform and opening up have been printing, investment, exports, and real estate. Now almost all units, all individuals and all links have different degrees of loans.The debt crisis was overwhelmed by stabilization. It was too late to resolve the concentrated outbreak of structural contradictions that had been resolved in nearly 40 years.
The environmental environment may be worse than the past three years in 2023.It is certain that China's decision -making layer is also weighing policy choices, and strives to minimize the established loss.
The author believes that the fundamentals and potential, toughness, vitality, and space of the Chinese economy have changed substantially. The most pragmatic approach is to discuss the spillover direction and stop loss of debt crisis, and propose practical debt to resolve debtsplan.In short, it is better to worry about China's debt crisis.
There may be three major "thunder areas"
According to Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the Central Bank of China, disclosed last year, China's macro leverage ratio in 2021 was 272.5%, which was calculated that the total debt scale in 2021 was about 31 trillion yuan (RMB, the same below, about 6007.7.7 billion new new new new.Yuan).
According to the Forbes Magazine reported on January 16, 2023, the total debt of China's public and private sectors of the public and private sector totaling a total of 51.9 trillion US dollars (about 700,655 billion yuan). The exchange rate was calculated at 7.363 trillion yuan, A net increase of 53 trillion yuan a year.Last year, China ’s GDP (GDP) was 121 trillion yuan, debt was 3.63 trillion yuan, and debt was just three times that of GDP.It is now known that last year, more than 28 trillion yuan of currency currency, 65 trillion yuan of local government invisible debt.It can be seen that the real debt trap should be much larger and deeper than what we know.
Foreign storage is not good.China's full -diameter foreign exchange net position, US $ 3521 billion in historical peaks in 2014, has dropped rapidly since then.In 2018, it fell to US $ 2476.5 billion, fell back to the level of 2010.It returned to 2021 to US $ 2737.2 billion, and it recovered to the level of 2011 in three years.As of September 2022, it fell to US $ 2531.6 billion, fell back to 2010.In 2022, foreign reserves were US $ 3,127.7 billion, and foreign bonds were deducted from foreign currency US $ 1382.3 billion, and foreign currency deposits were 884.9 billion US dollars.In January 2023, it rose, and fell by 51.309 billion US dollars from January at the end of February, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves fell to US $ 3033.1 billion.Insufficient foreign reserves may face debt defaults.
China's GDP is two -thirds of the United States, and China's debt burden is 40%higher than the United States.Last year, the expected growth rate of China GDP was above 5%, but the actual growth rate was only 3%.At present, all investment, exports, and real estate have shrunk, and it is impossible to drive the economy.The new economic growth has not yet.It was expected that the mainland government to make up for losses this year after the 20th National Congress of the government, but now it seems that this year is more troublesome than last year. It is necessary to prepare to prevent debt defaults, negative consumption growth, and inflation.
China Vice Premier Liu He said at the Davos Economic Forum this year that China's GDP has increased from 54 trillion yuan to 121 trillion yuan in the past 10 years.GDP does double more than doubled, but the currency is over three times the GDP.China's debt exceeded 10 trillion yuan in 1998, exceeded 1 million yuan in 2013, exceeded 2 million billion yuan in 2020. In 2021, it exceeded 2.3829 million yuan.27.8371 trillion yuan in a single month high.The data shows that the 121 trillion yuan GDP of China in the past 10 years is exchanged for the government with 363 trillion yuan in debt. China ’s GDP with double the growth rate of the US economy has been exchanged for several times the increase in US Treasury bonds.have to.Therefore, debt defaults are not alarmist.
Even more troublesome, most of the huge debt has precipitated on large real estate and infrastructure projects. It is a dead money.Overall, in recent years, real estate has accounted for 30%of GDP, and infrastructure construction accounts for 20%of GDP, which has contributed not to small that year.However, most of the real estate, infrastructure, and the real economy have been developed. Like the high -speed rail, China may not digest such a huge capacity for a long time. In the end, it is only to drag banks and enterprises to death.
Besides consumption, negative growth is in front of you.The proportion of Chinese social security expenditures in GDP has always been very low in the world.In 2020, China ’s welfare expenditure accounted for only 3.21%, but in 2021, it fell to 2.96%, which was 16.8 percentage points lower than the overall level of 2019 in 2019.In the Western countries, epidemic prevention is not only not issued by epidemic prevention, but also uses a large number of people to consume the savings of the people.Now some middle -class has returned to poverty due to unemployment and mortgages, while low -income people are basically unable to consume.Therefore, the Chinese economy is destined to be dragged by people's livelihood.
In particular, we must pay special attention to new uncertainty.A large number of elderly people died on December 7 last year after the lift of the epidemic control.But this year may be the first year of Chinese culture.For their children, parents are here, there are still places in life, parents go, and life is left.Since his hometown does not have the concern of his children's worries, young people have no nostalgia for life. In the future, the tide of returning home in the Spring Festival may be a little bit lively.
This year may also be the first year of the young people to support the facade.Parents' pensions are the backing of some young people in the city. Without the economic support of the parents or helping their children, the lives of young people in the city will become difficult. Some may give up their struggle. Some may enter the poverty.It may lose the source of car loan mortgage repayment.As for rural areas, no one can help young people take care of children, and young people can only be forced to abandon work.The city has no migrant workers, and the previous urbanization layout will be rewritten.Rural poverty will increase rapidly.The old man died of a house, and this year will be the first year of the rise in commercial housing.
China debt crisis is caught in three major paradox
Inflation is the most headache.The current strong currency supply and the demand for disadvantaged entities have embarrassed Keynesianism.Last year, the balance of bank deposits soared to 1.2 million yuan, which was almost equivalent to half of the currency stock of 2.6643 billion yuan last year.The super -issued currency cannot enter the economic operation system, and there can only be a bank. It is impossible for banks to bear interest for no reason, and then inflation.
The Chinese debt crisis has been derived from three major problems. One is that the more money is printed, but the market cannot digest, and no money and printing are dead. The second is that the debt crisis kicks the ball.The third is that the debt crisis is a mess. Now the central government wants to hold his child away, and the local area is waiting.
First of all, the liquidity trap is too large and no solution.Kanesianism has now become the theory of making trouble in China.The supply of Chinese currencies is serious, greater than demand, and has nothing to do with stimulating economic growth. It has continued for a long time, but Keynesianism is still calling the money to stimulate the economy.The current banks are request to lend, and the company is because of the bank's face.However, after getting the money, the enterprise will save money back to the bank.The bank reported the loan results, but formed a closed loop of currency air.
The trouble of printing the banknote economy is the "anchor" and "storage pool" of the RMB.Land finance and export exchange exchange is the anchor of RMB in recent years, but now the land finance and export exchange exchange is shrinking, and it has lost its condition for RMB anchor.Real estate is a renminbi -storage tank for RMB in these years, but now real estate can no longer store water.The bank's banknote printing has nowhere to store water, and entering the market will inevitably cause inflation.The renminbi has been swimming naked, and it is terrible that it has not yet been found a solution.
debtIt is impossible for the triangle
Secondly, the central, local, and finance cannot be triangular in debt formation.It is impossible for the debt crisis to achieve three win -win situations in the central, local, and finance.Now the first bottom line set by the central government is that it cannot be printed by banknote help to bring inflation.The Minister of Finance stated that "the central government is not rescued", and the debt is itself.The second bottom line set by the central government is that systemic financial risks cannot occur. It is necessary to prevent the local government pushing bad debts to financial institutions in order to protect themselves.The central sword refers to the place, but the 65 trillion local debt is so huge that the local can not remember the big pot.If the central government said that the central government does not take the central government and the finance will not bear it, the place will not pay immediately.This is China's "impossible triangle".
Third, the big government may be out of order due to the game.China's central relations have always been designed in the collection and decentralization.Now it is the central government's financial power, power, and local management.The central government's tax collection from local government funds, approval of the bond issuance of local governments, determines the right to deploy local personnel, the issuance of major local affairs decisions, and the approval of major economic projects to maintain the unification of China.
At the beginning of the change, Wan Ma Qi.In order to mobilize local enthusiasm, the Jiangzhu government has implemented the reform of the tax system similar to a rural contracted system, the so -called "dividing the stove to eat".The central government no longer seizes everything, local governments are more and more, and they have the opportunity to fully exert their skills. Therefore, you chase me in various places to compete and make a local economy.This exploration began in the early stages of opening, and was recognized by economist Zhang Wuchang.The problem is that although this move has mobilized local enthusiasm, it has formed local princes and weakened the power of the central government.So after just ten years, the central government recovered the financial power of the local government on the merger of local taxes and national taxes, and returned to the large government situation of all the government to collect all.
There is no officer of the current central relations, and no matter what the officer is, the place is helpless.The central government had to allow local cities to set up debt to the development of debt.As soon as the sidelines were opened, the urban debt was unpredictable.Today, the correction of the central land is actually a zero -harmony game, but at the beginning of the change, it was lying flat in the Wanma Qi -style place.
Objectively speaking, the local debt stalls of 65 trillion yuan now should be caused by the Great Leap Forward of the top -level design.If the central government has ordered the local to make a living and go to the future, the next step will be the local government and find reasons to fight taxes.If the central government cannot receive taxes, the financial tax will be broken and the function of losing fiscal transfer payment will be lost; the next thing that will inevitably occur is the weakening of the right to speak of local affairs, that is, the right of the matter will fall.In this way, the government's government disintegrates.The consequences could be disastrous.
People are worried about the status quo of the Chinese economy. Economist Wu Jinglian appealed: It must be transformed from the past high indicator, high investment, and inefficient growth method to achieve efficiency -driven growth.Change the past and rigid backward system, establish a vitality and vibrant system, and open up market -oriented, rule of law, and democratization.It is pole.
The author is a retired economist in Sichuan China
Keynesianism has now become the theory of making trouble in China.The supply of Chinese currencies is serious, greater than demand, and has nothing to do with stimulating economic growth. It has continued for a long time, but Keynesianism is still calling the money to stimulate the economy.
