Source: Beijing News
Author: Zhang Xiaolan, Duan Wenping
After the Spring Festival holiday, the market resumed normalized operations, and the credit environment of China ’s multi -city cities was relatively loose. The demand for housing in the early period of backlog was accelerated, which led to the restoration of the property market in February.Among them, the second -hand housing that is regarded as the "barometer" of the property market, showing a trend of recovering from the new house in the new house in this round of the real estate market.
Looking forward to the market trend in the future, industry insiders believe that in the short term, some cities may now "Xiaoyangchun" in March, but the continuation of the market recovery requires residents' confidence and revenue expectations.
On the afternoon of March 7, at the second session of the 14th National People's Congress held a second "Minister Channel" interview activity, the Minister of Housing and Urban -Rural Development, Ni Hong, said that he was full of confidence in the rise of the real estate market.
"Spring Yi" first appeared, and the new house market in many cities now appears to be positive signal
Seeing that the property market has improved and the new house projects that fancy are close to sold out. Recently, Li Ming (pseudonym) bought a set of commercial houses in Fuyang District, Hangzhou.Before that, he had planned to buy a house for two years in the property market for two years.In the meantime, the price of the real estate has not changed, but for him, it saves two years of mortgage interest, and the sales of existing housing are more at ease.
This is a real case that happened at Gan Mei, the founder of Meilong Consulting and senior real estate marketer Gan Mei.Not only in Hangzhou, but also in the front -line marketing of Gan Mei, a buyer of a real estate in a real estate in Hubei also impressed him.The buyer has been hesitating within two months, and even when he reaches the contract with the sales staff on the spot, he still hesitate to "down" for three hours. Recently, he feels that the market has gone out of the bottom and finally chose to buy."At present, the signs of recovery of the property market are obvious. The buyers see that the price is appropriate, and the transaction will be fast." Gan Mei said.
This is not a case.In fact, since February, the property market recovery signal has appeared in more and more cities.Gan Mei is responsible for the new market in third- and fourth -tier cities such as Zhejiang Anji and Guizhou Bijie. The volume has begun to recover. "The Bijie project sells an average of 10 sets per day. I did not expect to double the index."
The same situation also occurred in Jiangsu, and the market has recovered in many places.According to Longhu, in Wuxi and Changzhou, the total number of visitors to Longhu in February only exceeded 6,000 groups. Rough statistics were roughly. In that month, Longhu's transaction volume in the above two cities exceeded 600 million yuan.In addition, many project customers in Longhu Nanjing have increased by more than 100%.According to statistics from Tongce Research Institute, Nanjing and Suzhou property markets have shown a trend of supply and marketing. Among them, Nanjing supplied 3086 units in February, an increase of 64%from the previous month; 5,694 sets of transactions, a month -on -month increase of 61%, setting a month -on -month increase, which set a month -on -month increase, setting a month -on -month increase, setting a month -on -month increase of 61%.new highs.The Suzhou market is also strong in supply and demand. In February, 1413 units were supplied, an increase of 52.29%month -on -month; 4835 units were sold, an increase of 39.5%month -on -month.
First -tier cities are no exception.Taking Beijing as an example, many salesperson feedback, the market has been active, especially on weekends, we have harvested the high popularity of exceeding expectations. "We are in front of the line and feel very intuitive.A person in Beijing said.
"In February, our Beijing sales were 50%-60%more than expected. In the past, buyers will be compared repeatedly. Now seeing that the market is heating quickly, the transaction rate and conversion rate have improved."Housing companies said that the company's projects in Jinan, Shijiazhuang, and the region of the Beijing area have also improved. "The previous projects of the Beijing -Beijing project are relatively difficult to sell, and they are currently driven."
The recovery of the market is also fed back to the data level.On the whole, a positive signal of the new housing trading in key cities across the country in February has risen against the trend for the first time under the pressure of 20 months of trading data.Statistics from the Yiju Research Institute show that in February, the transaction area of new commercial housing in 60 key cities across the country was 20.5 million square meters, an increase of 47%month -on -month and a year -on -year increase of 37%.In terms of cities, in February, 60, second, and third-tier cities across the country, newly-built commercial housing transactions are 1.63 million square meters, 10.2 million square meters, and 8.22 million square meters.49%and 70%, the year-on-year growth rate was -11%, 40%, and 49%, respectively.
The owner expects to turn well, and the second -hand house is warmed up in the new house
Similar to Li Ming's situation, Wu Yang (pseudonym), who watched and watched in the property market for a year and a half, has recently shot, but he entered the second -hand housing market.
In July 2021, Wu Yang judged that the property market had reached a high point at that time. In addition, a three -lapse of the three -bedroom community in Chaoyang District, Beijing, was sold.Different from the general replacement crowd, it was quickly bought after selling the house. Wu Yang's replacement time was separated by one and a half years.
The price he planned to have fallen to a certain extent, and then replaced it again, but after a year and a half observations, it was found that the price of the surrounding communities has not changed much.By January this year, he keenly felt that the property market had changed: whether it was a new house or second -hand housing, the market improved significantly.Therefore, he made a decisive shot and bought a three -bedroom room near the city of Chaoyang.
There are no house buyers like Wu Yang, and there are not a few buyers who have been put into operation in the near future.According to statistics from Zhuge Housing Data Research Center, in February, 10 key cities in key cities were sold for 62,804 units, an increase of 53.64%month -on -month and 108.42%year -on -year.From the perspective of specific cities, in February, Hangzhou's increase in Malaysia first, with 6,402 second -hand housing transactions, rose 172.77%month -on -month; Qingdao increased in TOP2, an increase of 99.3%month -on -month, and 5,411 second -hand houses were sold; Chengdu's increase was followed.87.59%month -on -month, 19061 transactions; Beijing and Shenzhen ranked fourth and fifth, with a month -on -month increase of more than 80%.
While the transaction scale of second -hand housing rises, the owner expects to turn well, and the number of key cities has also showed an upward trend.According to statistics from the 58 Anju House Real Estate Research Institute, in February, 65 major cities across the country increased by 238%month -on -month. Among them, the number of newly listed listings in Shanghai and Guangzhou increased more than twice the month -on -month.1.5 times.Throughout the country, Huzhou, Jiaxing, Huizhou, Kunshan and other cities have increased by more than five times from the previous month.
The second -hand housing market is often regarded as the "barometer" of the property market.In fact, compared to the new housing market, in the cycle of the recovery of the property market in this round, second -hand housing showed a trend of warming up in the new house.According to statistics from the Yiju Research Institute, the number of second -hand residential transactions in eight key cities in the country (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing, Xiamen) in February was 79,438, an increase of 78%month -on -month, an increase of 96%year -on -year;Observing historical data, the current transaction data of second -hand housing has reached a new high in 20 months, that is, the highest monthly value since July 2021.
The section is differentiated, the recovery of some new house projects still takes time
Why did the property market activity rise after the Spring Festival?In this regard, Chen Wenjing, director of market research director of the middle finger research institute, said that after the epidemic prevention and control of the epidemic in December last year, the short -term infection was "peak", and then after the Spring Festival holiday, some demand was pressed.EssenceIn addition, after more than a year of continuous adjustment, the demand for hot cities has strengthened its spontaneous recovery, and several core cities have previously optimized regulatory policies. As expected improvement, market activity has rebounded.
Xu Xiaole, chief analyst of the Shell Research Institute, also analyzed that there are many factors for the short -term repair of the market -seasonal growth of market transactions after the Spring Festival, adjustment of the premium housing policy for the adjustment of epidemic prevention policiesWait, the demand for housing delayed by the epidemic is released.
It is worth mentioning that although the market has recovered, it is not "full of redness.""Xiaoyangchun’s atmosphere is up, some people selling peopleThere are also a lot, but the actual volume of some projects is not as optimistic of the outside world."This is what a real estate company in Guangzhou said.
The above -mentioned real estate companies said that under the favorable policy, real estate stability is a high probability, but whether the market recovery cannot be too optimistic.He used the new house market in Guangzhou in February. Tianshe, Haizhu, and Yuexiu were on sale in the central urban area of inner urban areas. Although the number of people watching the building on the weekend has increased, there are more wait and see, "settled" (fixed "(fixed gold) less."Citizen confidence is still insufficient, and whether real estate developers can hand over the building on schedule. It is okay to sell existing housing, but there is still a process for other projects to recover."
Gan Mei's observation evidence of the above -mentioned real estate companies from the side.She admits that there are three major characteristics of real estate that is currently selling well: good location, suitable price, and close to the current house. "Due to concerns about subsequent purchasing power, developers dare not increase their prices at will.Up. "
From the perspective of the industry, the high growth rate of transaction data in some cities is related to the short -term release of the previously suppressed demand, which does not mean that the purchasing power of the buyer's purchasing power is fully restored.In fact, compared with the second -hand housing market, the new house market still takes a while. In February this year, the new house trading data is still lower than the monthly average of 2019 and 2020.According to statistics from the Institute of Medicine, from January to February of this year, the average monthly transaction scale of newly-built commercial housing in 100 cities rose by 2.0%compared with the same period of 2022, but it is still at a low level since 2016.
Industry: The sales area of commercial housing is expected to achieve positive growth
So, look forward to the next market, can this round of recovery continue?What development trend will the real estate market overall this year?
"The tone of this overall recovery has been clear, and the certainty of policy has increased. From the financial support on the supply side, to the loosening of the demand -side restriction policy, the market expects to be gradually clear." Zhang Bo, the dean of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, pointed out that the director of the Institute of Housekeeper pointed out, Hot first and second -tier cities have begun to enter "Xiaoyangchun". In addition, this year's Spring Festival has been superimposed by factors such as returning home and favorable policies.It takes some time to recover.
"Xiaoyangchun 'in the local area can continue." Yang Hongxu, deputy dean of the Shanghai Yizhou Real Estate Research Institute, analyzed that each city has its "honor line", that is, whether the property market is strong or notDivide the watershed.From the perspective of this year, the first- and second -tier cities and some third -tier and fourth -tier cities will take the lead in recovery. The earliest reflection in the current "Xiaoyangchun". Starting from mid -February, it is expected to last until April.Above the line.With the recovery of the trading volume, the price is expected to be stabilized for about two months.On the whole, cities with strong property markets are expected to gradually recover in the first half of the year, and the prices in the second half of the year have risen steadily.
Yang Hongxu's logic behind the above judgment is that most of the first and second -tier cities and the eastern regions of the Yangtze River Delta have begun to cool down from the second half of 2021. Some small and medium -sized cities in the central and western regions have a longer cooling time, and the property market adjustment is basically in place.Since last year, the central and local multi -round favorable policies have supported real estate. Since this year, multiple cities have continued to loosen regulation. In addition, the credit environment is loose. On the whole, the external environment of the real estate has basically stabilized.
And Chen Wenjing believes that in the short term, some cities may now "Xiaoyangchun" in March, but the continuation of the market recovery requires residents' confidence in property confidence and revenue expectations, and the overall relying on the repair of macroeconomic fundamentals.Differential differentiation of different energy -level cities may be more obvious. Among them, the market emotional restoration of the core first and second -tier cities is relatively fast. Most third -tier and fourth -tier cities still face the pressure of adjustment and the market may continue to adjust the trend.
From the perspective of 2023, Chen Wenjing pointed out that in the situation of optimism, the national commercial housing sales area is expected to achieve positive growth, but in the context of the weakening of the demand for the release of the demand for the releaseIt is basically the same as 2022; in the situation of pessimism, the market expectations and confidence repair are not obvious, and the sales area of commercial housing continues to fall, a decrease of about 3.6%.
