Bill Emot: What kind of deterrent power does Japan have

Bill Emot

Japan's response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the "strategic partnership" announced by Russia and China before that, it was impressive.The Japanese government's proposal to increase national defense budget nearly doubled in the next five years, showing political realism and practical determination.The key issue is how to spend this money.

In the new version of the national security strategy and national defense strategy, Japan believes that it must continue to cooperate with allies, especially in the United States, which signed a security treaty with it in 1951 to defend itself and help maintain regional peace.But these documents also provide some new information.The Japanese government has publicly stated that it is determined to play a dominant role in Japan's self -defense and prevent other countries from trying to "unilaterally change the status quo."

Deliest is the most important task set by Japan for itself, but it is also the most difficult.This means that deterrent North Korea dares not to launch conventional or nuclear attacks, and it means to curb Russia's aggression (such as the four islands from the northern coastline outside the northern coast of Japan. The Soviet Union seized these islands in the last few days of World War II).But the most important thing is that this means preventing China from taking action to Taiwan, or strategic southern islands near Japan.

Everyone knows that the "unilateral change of the status quo" mentioned in the document mainly refers to the invasion or blockade of Taiwan in mainland China.The Japanese Prime Minister Kishita Tamaoshi raised the same problem in the Shangri -La dialogue held in Singapore in June 2022. He issued this impressive warning in his keynote speech: "Today's Ukraine may be Tomorrow's East Asia."

For those who grew up in the Cold War, the word deterrent reminds people of nuclear weapons, and the terrible but reassuring principle of "mutual guarantee".But Japan does not have this option.It is just a speculation about the country's might obtain nuclear weapons.The Japanese will not take this road in the short term, and it will not be even more under Kishida, because he is from Hiroshima.

Japan's new national defense construction also reflects a sober understanding, that is, Japan may not be able to often rely on the United States (nuclear or other) protection.If Japan does not make significant contributions to deterning China, Russia, and North Korea in the future, it will not be able to expect the United States.

This is why the new strategy refers to the acquisition and establishment of "counterattack", which means that the formation of a missile force for potential opponents to know that it can be used quickly to fight back, and even implement a premier crackdown.Although there is still controversy, the main purpose is not to use this unit, but to let people know that Japan has it.This is the essence of deterrence.

Speed and strength is the two main characteristics of this counterattack ability.High -quality intelligence, whether it is separately collecting or cooperating with the United States, is also vital to establish deterrent credibility, because only in this way can the counterattack ability can show the power at the required speed.Establishing a reliable counterattack ability is essential for improving the ability of Japan's potential opponents -Russia and North Korea -Russia and North Korea.

However, the challenges made by China, the opponent of the south, are more difficult.In recent years, Japan has more clearly stated that it is opposed to "unilateral changes in the status quo" on issues of Taiwan and the East China Sea.It also clearly states that the Self -Defense Force will support the US military when conflicting with China.However, once again, the deterrent of these regions depends on whether Japan can develop a convincing fast and powerful response ability.

For this reason, Japan must not only expand and modernize its sea, land and air defense forces; they must also change their deployment methods.Although the Japanese Maritime Self -Defense Force (that is, the navy of other countries) and the well -equipped and huge Japanese Maritime Security Agency fleet, they do perform their tasks in the broad collar sea in Japan, they and the Army or the Air Force in the south of the South West Island near Taiwan,There are no important bases or supply stations.

There is no such base, how powerful the Japanese army becomes, because it is still too difficult to quickly deploy them to the area where the most likely conflict; and, the most important thing isJapan is indeed capable of mobilizing information quickly.After a few weeks or even months of the incident, military interference can be achieved, and it is unlikely to produce great deterrent effects.

The use of the United States on the base of the United States in the southern part of Benju and Okinawa may help.But the biggest role is to let mainland China know that any attempt to invade or coerces Taiwan will be responded by a strong military response from the nearby Japanese army.This means that appropriate military bases must be established on the southernmost islands.

Similarly, this is not easy to do.In these southern islands, the political sensitivity ruled by Tokyo is as sharp as the Okinawa Island in the northern part.These bases are supplied and allowed them to guard for a long time and throughout the year, which costs high.However, this will be the real test of Japan's new defense strategy in Japan in the next five years or even.Is Japanese ability enough to change the risk calculation of Chinese military planners?In the final analysis, this is the condition for deterrence.

Author Bill Emmott is a former editor -in -chief of economists

The Chairman of the Institute of International Strategy and the British Japan Association

English Original Title: What Japanese Deterrence

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