Lin Yiheng: Taiwan semiconductor industry under the Sino -US trade war

Lin Yiheng

Former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Pelosi, visited Taiwan on August 2 last year, Liu Deyin, chairman of the Taiwan Style Circuit Manufacturing, was interviewed by the United States CNN (CNN), which shocked the technology industry.TSMC, the top global market value company, is also very rare for CNN.Liu Deyin answered the interviewer's question, carefully grasped the words, try not to offend any party, while firmly conveying his political view.The outside world generally believes that this interview represents the idea of Taiwanese science and technology operators, especially how they understand the political situation.

The following are introduced from three perspectives of Taiwan, the United States, and mainland China to introduce the current situation of Taiwan's science and technology industry.

Political pressure in Taiwan

Before interpreting the position of the Taiwan semiconductor industry, you should understand the correlation between the industry and nationalism.Overseas commentators often forget this part, so it is difficult to comprehensively understand the dilemma of Taiwan semiconductor industry.

The semiconductor industry is the national industry. Taiwan society does not simply look at it from the perspective of economy or technology, but often look at it with national emotions.Taiwan society is proud of the total output value of 17%of the global semiconductor industry chain. The advanced process (below 10 nanometers) has monopolized 92%of the chip market, including the lifeblood of many industries: consumer electronics, weapons, network communication; traditional cars; traditional cars;The manufacturing industry has also suffered $ 210 billion (about S $ 280 billion) due to the chip chain of 2021.Some discussion believes that the status of Taiwan's industrial chain is irreplaceable, and the Western camp will try to ensure the peace of the Taiwan Strait and ensure the stable supply of the chip.

Taiwan society has therefore imagined the semiconductor department as an indestructible defense barrier. A Australian journalist was called this imagination in 2011 as "Silicon Shield".But compared with the Silicon Shield, Taiwan's folks prefer to use "protecting the country and the mountains" to call the semiconductor industry.This vocabulary originally refers to the Central Mountains that weakened the rain for the western cities in western Taiwan. After the outbreak of the Sino -US trade war, it was derived as a pronoun for semiconductor industry, referring to the loyal defenders of Taiwan's interests.

"Guardian Guo Shenshan", the corresponding price must be paid.Faced with the problem of serious power shortage in Taiwan, the government urged various industrial departments to propose a energy -saving plan. Only the semiconductor industry can be exempted. For example, TSMC's electricity consumption will increase from 6%in 2016 to 202813%.In terms of tax burden, according to Korean media statistics, the average corporate income tax rate for the semiconductor industry in Taiwan is about 11%, which is half of the Korean industry.The industrial policy has made the semiconductor industry the main industry in Taiwan. The wafer industry accounted for about 10 % of Taiwan's GDP in 2014, and more than 20 % in 2022.

The semiconductor industry has generated huge political and economic dividends, leading to the formation of populist structure, and forcing the government to launch a policy of favorable semiconductor.For example, in the local election of 2021, the DPP that ruling the DPP was higher than that of Kaohsiung.The mayor of Kaohsiung, Chen Qimai, was attracted to TSMC in the previous term. It was an important reason for winning the election, reflecting the relationship between the wafer industry and the politics of the election, and the obsession between developmentalism for semiconductor industry.Semiconductor faces not only external international factors such as the Sino -US trade war, but also internal populist pressure.

Political pressure from the United States

Taiwan has been worried that the United States has disintegrated the Silicon Shield based on the strategic interests of the United States.The Taiwanese government and manufacturers cooperate in the United States, which does not mean that there is no private thinking or calculation in private.

Taiwan's doubts about the United States have begun to explode in the Sino -US trade war.In 2018, the White House restricted Taiwan semiconductor manufacturers to trade with mainland China; in 2020, the Taiwan Economic Affairs Department was required to surrender technical documents to the United States; now, Taiwan's biggest concern is that TSMC was required to establish 21 plants in Arizona (FAB 21)It is estimated that the 5 -nanometer process will be put into production in 2024, and the 3 -nanometer process will be introduced in the future.After Taiwan is concerned about the U.S. control chip technology, once the mainland government invades Taiwan, will the U.S. military stand by?

Taiwanese manufacturers also have suffering. When they set up factories in the United States, labor costs, tax burdens, and infrastructure are a heavy burden.Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of TSMC, even said to Pelosi, visiting Taiwan. Taiwanese manufacturers went to the United States to establish a supply chain without economic benefits and are doomed to fail.

However, the US consideration is obviously non -economic benefits. Miller, the author of the Eagle Pyramid Warrior, called on Washington to use tough measures to pressure Two -electricity.department.This remark caused an uproar in Taiwan, forcing TSMC President Wei Zhejia and leaders to appear to appease people's hearts, saying that TSMC went to the United States to set up factories, and there was no problem of "de -Taiwanization".

Facing the doubt of "de -Taiwanization", the official response of the United States has no unified caliber.The first -faction of State Caratac in the Trump era, saying that in the US -made factories help consolidate the Taiwan Silicon Shield, only the interests of each other are guaranteed, can the United States maintain a military leader to protect Taiwan, which is a win -win situation.Only China. "The former deputy national security adviser Boming has a different discussion, advocating that there is no so -called silicon shield. The semiconductor industry concentrated in Taiwan will only intensify China's ambitions.The two discussions are contradictory, and it seems that the political scientist Fukuyama commented: the internal ideas of Washington's issues of Taiwan are inconsistent, and the Taiwanese must face up to this risk.

A populous factors occupy an important proportion of the formulation of Taiwan's industrial policy.If the United States does not appropriately discuss to appease the people of Taiwan, it may encounter variables when promoting relevant policies.

The three waves of sanctions in the United States

From the age of Lee Teng -hui, cross -strait politics has been the focus of Taiwan's semiconductor. It has been divided into two parts over the years.

The first is economic control.In the past, Taiwan adopted a stricter to set up factories in the mainland than other countries. Like South Korea's Samsung and TSMC, the former in Xi'an accounted for 40% of NAND's global memory body capacity.EssenceThe mainland has less chips for Taiwan chip production. The US sanctions have made the global industrial chain two, and Taiwanese industry players tend to move closer to the United States.

Most of Taiwan's operators accept new rules designed in the United States, but it is difficult to generalize by individual companies. This must consider the industrial structure of manufacturers. The three waves of US sanctions from 2019 to 2021 also have different impacts.The sanctions between May 2019 and April 2020 are mainly aimed at large state -owned enterprises and high -end chips in mainland China. Taiwanese businessmen obtained permits can be supplied to 80 companies in the United States.These two waves of sanctions caused TSMC to lose the second largest customer Huawei, which accounted for 14%of revenue, but the production capacity of TSMC's supply was quickly used by Apple and Qualcomm, which caused TSMC's performance in the past three years.Many foreign customers who originally designed and closed in mainland China also transferred to Taiwan because of the ban.

China responds to the trade war, and some companies will no longer place orders to Taiwan for UMC and accumulate electricity under the guidance of policy guidance, and use land -to -middle and low -level chips.In terms of high -end chips, China can still purchase products from TSMC from the American designer.Therefore, the United States launched the third wave of trade war offensive from August to October 2022, and no longer targeting specific enterprises and high -level processes, but comprehensively banned the US and other countries from exporting semiconductor equipment, design software and materials to China.

This wave caused a sharp decline in Taiwan stocks, and the market value of TSMC evaporated RMB 1 trillion (about S $ 44 billion).It must be noted that there is a vague space in the inner text of this wave of bans.The United States gives TSMC NanjingIs the factory exemption extended during the ban period?It is necessary to wait and see these factors in order to evaluate the effect of this sanction.

Customer requirements are required to decentralize Taiwan production capacity

The situation of the Taiwan Strait also affects the semiconductor nerves.The missile drill of the mainland in August last year did not cause panic like the Taiwan Strait crisis in 1996. Most Taiwanese companies did not think that war was a risk of response, but it was still under pressure from the supply chain.The Ukrainian War and the mainland government real bomb exercise caused foreign investors and customers to worry. According to a survey of Taiwan Commercial Weekly, 41.2%of the questionnaires issued by the enterprise at the end of 2022 said that Taiwan manufacturers stated that they were demanded by customers to disperse Taiwan's capacity. 12.5%of manufacturers planned to be in 2023Started the capacity of overseas manufacturing before June.

In addition, another topic in the world is the motivation for the mainland to capture Taiwan's advanced process?The Taiwan industry generally believes that this is considered to be more. Even if the attacking Taiwan will be out of other goals, as the signal of Liu Deyin's transmission in CNN in the United States: the factory where the force is accumulated by force controllers, the wafer manufacturing requires a lot of fine conditions.Destroying the balance of production, and "the battle of the Taiwan Strait means the destruction of international order. At that time, the chip was not what we should worry about."

Under the poles of the global industrial chain, the Taiwan government and the industry choose to rely on the party of the democratic camp.May wish to understand the trade conflict between the United States and China as the Permanent War described by Owa in 1984.The great country deliberately highlights the crisis of the world's control of the enemy and the tension atmosphere of geopolitical politics can rationalize any actions of the great power.

The Taiwan semiconductor department is facing a "irrational" conflict of "carefully manufactured". The scientific and technological operators seem to have power in front of the stage, but behind the scenes, it is inexplicable.

Since the Sino -US trade war, Taiwan semiconductor industry is prosperous, but I believe they are more missed in the era of free trade, and they don't like to be in uncertainty.In the past, engineers only liked to consider technology and business issues; now, they must live on the battlefield without artillery and flames.

The author is a master's degree in the Department of Geographical and Environmental Resources of National Taiwan University

Visit Students of Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajernan International Research Institute

It is necessary to understand the trade conflict between the United States and China as an eternal war described by Owa in 1984.The great country deliberately highlights the crisis and the tension of geopolitics can rationalize any action.The Taiwan semiconductor department is facing a "irrational" conflict of "carefully manufactured". The technology industry seems to have power in front of the stage, but behind the scenes, it is inexplicable.