Bao Shenggang
With the saturation of China's economic development and the continued deterioration of Sino -US relations, the Chinese economy is facing a downward trend.At the same time, with the transfer of industries, Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam and India are becoming the focus of the world economy.Who will be the next China?How will this change affect Sino -US relations?
The shift from the Globalization Center from the Atlantic to the Pacific, the world first witnessed the rise of Japan, and then the glory of the four Asian dragons.In the past 30 years, letting the world witness that China is not only the next super Japan, but also a dragon.The foundation of China's rise and world influence lies in economic globalization. One is because of the reform and opening up policy and integrating into the world economic order. China seize the opportunity of globalization, which has inadvertently followed the trend.The second is to become a promoter of a new round of economic globalization.
After China, where is the next stop of globalization?Will Vietnam be the next China?Or will Vietnam be a new generation of world factories?This is currently a fashionable topic that people are talking about.
From the perspective of volume, Vietnam is not enough to become the next China, or the next reduced version of China, and it is not enough to become a new generation of world factories.However, Vietnam is more than enough to become the first of the new four dragons in Asia.In contrast to the continuous downturn and pessimistic of the world economy today, the economic take -off of Vietnam and the Asianan country is obviously a dazzling landscape, coupled with the cheap labor of Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos, the cost advantage of Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, and SingaporeThe mature manufacturers of Malaysia are intertwined into a huge and complete manufacturing network, which is promoting Asia to become Asia's third growth pole second only to China and India.
Compared to Vietnam and other Southeast Asian countries, India is undoubtedly the most likely to be the next China, and it will be a giant elephant.As the population surpasses China, India will be the first "population champion" since the United Nations has begun to track the global population data in the 1950s.
In addition, according to data from the International Monetary Fund, last year, India's GDP (GDP) has surpassed the United Kingdom and has become the fifth largest economy in the world.The Asian Development Bank predicts that the Indian economy will grow at a amazing speed of 7.2%this year, ranking first among 46 countries in Asia Pacific.Obviously, the global supply chain diversified trend caused by the intensified competition between China and the United States and the crown disease epidemic is an important driving force for India's economic growth in recent years.
attracted by the huge potential market, Apple has begun to assemble the latest iPhone 14 in India and try to transfer some production lines in China and other regions to India.Foxconn in Taiwan has begun to cooperate with India's Natural Resources Group Vedanta to print semiconductors.In the FY2022 investigation of the International Cooperation Bank of Japan, India ranked first among Japanese companies' overseas expansion. This is the first time in India to recapture the list.India's GDP is expected to surpass Germany in 2025 and surpass Japan in 2027, becoming the third largest economy after the United States and China.Prime Minister Modi promised that by the 100th anniversary of India's independence in 2047, India will become developed countries.
How will the rise of India affect Sino -US relations?What is interesting is, will the United States choose to fight against India at that time?Just as the United States is currently choosing a joint India Anti -China.
The author is employed in Canada Overseas Group
