Yin Zixuan: The British ＂Windsor Framework＂ did not solve the problem after Brexit

Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao

Author: Yin Zixuan

Looking at the British Prime Minister Sonak's live broadcast in the BBC, he reported to the Northern Ireland to report to the northern people with excitement and dancing him to win the "unique arrangement ... (Bei Ai) will participate in the European Union at the same time.A single market and the entire United Kingdom Market. "He smiled so much. Except for people who were convinced that he had made a lot of hard work within the party, he had overwhelmed the Brexit Eagle School.A variation from the agreement obtained from the EU, after all, was just a small repairs that Northern Ireland "cut" the "Irish / Northern Ireland Agreement", which is "ceded" to the EU, to the EU.

This agreement is placed in the united kingdom's own tariff area, while the latter obtains the freedom of formulating tariff policies.Set up the border control of goods, and Bei Ai will follow the regulation of EU law.Although the implementation of these EU laws, although the British government will be supervised, European courts will still have the final decision of law.And Sunak's so -called "Windsor Framework" is just in the premise, plus a northern love parliament that can be made under the "Exceptional Circumstances", so that some bills that have objections to North Ai have objections to Europe and BritainThe mechanism of the joint committee set.

The North Irish Issue Speaking of the Northern Ireland

Behind Sunak's full of ambition, although there is indeed a literally and feasible northern love solution, who can guarantee that this solution will not become his political career like Teresa May's Brexit solution, it will become his political career.The epitaph?The fact is that the only solution that can meet Ireland Peace and the European Union's single market dividends at the same time is to maintain smooth and orderly exchanges through the EUA through the qualifications of EU member states.All Northern Love Agreement since Torresa May has basically been unable to escape a false fake for Brexit fantasy and northern love at the same time.

The most critical "vectors" (Veto Player "from the beginning to the end of the Brexit contradictions (DUP), even under the current new plan, still cannot see any signs of looseness.The debate on the border issue of the northern love is actually the most accurate epitome of the contradiction between the "ideal and reality" of Brexit: the richness, trade and peace representatives of the European Union's single market, maintaining the fragile and peaceful agreement with the neighbors, and the unified faction.British doctrine, how can these three fundamental contradictions coexist?

In other words, under the premise that DUP has enough power to intervene in British and European relations, how to let Bei Ai stay in the European Union's single market on the one hand, and at the same time, there is no land "hard boundary" between Ireland, and there must be no Lord English England.Sea border?There are only two solutions for this DUP's triple paradox: Ireland is unified, or the United Kingdom returns to the European Union.Of course, the latter is impossible. The Brexit of Brexit has boiled for decades that political experiments have not reached a moment of bankruptcy; but the former?The Windsor Framework seems to have stopped the road of Bei Ai separation. By giving the Bei Ai Parliament a certain autonomy on EU regulations, there is another way to make Bei Ai have a certain subjectivity, but there is still a certain bond with the "motherland".What about this?The answer seems to be negative.

Let's talk about Bei Ai's current situation first.The DUP governance of the Bei Ai ruling party was not available, so all the elections hoped on the abolition of Beiai Agreement.In order to consolidate DUP, which is intended to consolidate its own advantages, the election results are exactly the opposite. Not only do some pro -Yingists abandon DUP, but also the Xinfen Party, which supports the unified north and south of Ireland, has won 27 seats among 90 seats.Political parties with the Banner of Ireland and the Northern and Southern Ireland Unification have become the largest party.Since then, Bei Ai has been in a dangerous state.

According to the Agreement on the Disposal Day and the St. Anderus Agreement, the New Bei Ai Chief Minister will be nominated by the largest party (Xinfen Party).Love the government must be established and operated, and the two are indispensable.So if DUP refuses to form a government with the Xinfen Party, to a certain extent, DUP can endlessly let the Bei Ai Parliament be empty -and this is exactly what the Dup party leader Jeffrey Donaldson said, unless northern love is unless northern loveThe agreement is "handled well", otherwise it will continue to obstruct Bei Ai to form the government.

"Bading Mechanism" is still limited by EU Law

So can the Windsor frame "deal with" the northern love agreement?In other words, what about dup all wishes?The answer seems to be negative.Although there is a intentional loose goods check -in system in the new agreement. It will enter the "green channel" from other parts of the United Kingdom to enter the northern love.At the same time that the procedures are greatly reduced, because the green channel random inspection is only executed when the customs are "suspected of smuggling", and Bei Ai Company exports to other parts of the United Kingdom no longer requires export declaration procedures. In fact, this may be the closest to the EU's single single.Treatment method of customs zone.

However, the problem of DUP's fundamental ideology is still not solved. The so -called Stormont Brake, which is the aforementioned objection processing mechanism, is actually limited by EU law. The control is still not in the hands of their "British Motherland"EssenceDUP still has no signs of loosening at this time. As a Dup member of the House of Representatives said in the interview, this so -called "brake" is just a mechanism that may slow down the implementation of EU regulations. In the end, the EU still has the right to fight back.Yu, London does not necessarily take the idea of Bei Ai to heart, "I don't think we are closer to the appropriate solution than before."

Reconstruction with Britain is not in the EU calculation

But on the other hand, if this negotiation is understood as the Sonc representatives of the Brexit pigeons, throwing an olive branch from the EU, regardless of success or failure -Does this agreement symbolize that Britain and Europe will rebuild the old?As always, the EU's attitude and goals are still accurate: protecting member states Irish border peace and ensuring the European single market; and re -establishing relations with the United Kingdom is obviously not in the current calculation of Brussels.Although there are some relaxation in the entry and exit control of several agricultural products, and the North Irish Agreement Act that has given up the Northern Ireland Agreement to unilaterally abolish the North Ai Agreement to the legislative procedure in the United Kingdom, the European Union in June last June against the United Kingdom violated the United Kingdom's violationThe seven lawsuits of the European Agreement, however, the structure of Stormont Brake shows the European Union's toughness to maintain the principles of single market, and Brussels still firmly controls the dominance.The complexity inside Bei Ai, of course, also looks at the eyes. At present, the plan reflects the EU's minor action to prevent Britain's unilateral tearing agreement in the Johnson era.

Back to Sunak, does this agreement reflect that the British side has reconciled mutual trust with the Europeanide and abandon the new empire dream of "starting to the world" since the Brexit of the United States Brexit?It may not necessarily.After the economy in 2022, the United Kingdom needs a strong needle. This key is that the solution of DUP instead of the Conservative Party is of course worth a try for Sonak.The stable Labor Party is not difficult.

It still takes a lot of time to move towards the future

But back to the fundamental interests of the United Kingdom?It seems that Sunak is still lucky.This can start with the following incidents: After the EU and London obtained a consensus in Windsor's framework, Brussels released a goodwill, allowing British scientists to participate in the world's largest scientific research plan "Horizon EUROPE" research fund again, but Sunak did not do notSurprise.

As part of the Brexit agreement signed by Johnson and the European Union in 2020, the joint kingdom researchers should have the same qualification to apply for a research fund with their peers of EU member states;After the northern love agreement, clothOf course, Russell also stopped the application of the fund from British researchers. British scientists who have obtained some of their funds will be brought to the research institute in mainland Europe, otherwise they will recover the funds.

According to the Financial Times, Senior officials of the Conservative Party, Sonak not only "doubts" the fund's return on Britain, but also insisted on finding an alternative to the staff.In the fundamental direction, Sunak still believes that the United Kingdom is a country that can lead the heroes at the global level, rather than the three major sectors of China, the United States, and Europe under the global system.

Although the Windsor framework is finalized, it takes time to really implement it. The plan itself is also changing soup and does not change the medicine, but it is still a relatively feasible solution that allows Britain and the European Union to plan more in the future.However, at the moment when the European Union has already focused on the internal integration rather than entangled with the United Kingdom, the United Kingdom is still "currently" that is still Brexit.The eagle forces in the Conservative Party are still large, and Johnson, who is still a member of the House of Commons, has threatened that he will not agree with Windsor's framework, and the Dup of Bei Ai is still stubborn.time.