Author: Ye Dehao

Bakhmut, located in the salt mine city in Donetsk Oblast, has been the only place for Russia and Ukraine for most of the past six months.Russian personnel have said that it may take a week to attack a house here.Russia and Ukraine have also suffered heavy losses here.

By this day, the Russian army's step -by -step advancement and north -south packaging trend has roughly determined the victory. According to the report of the city, the city of Bachmut is constantly bombarded.The foreign traffic supply channel has been furious.Lost is only a matter of time. The only choice in Ukraine seems to be "orderly retreat" to avoid "chaotic defeat".

Is Bakhmut worth a bloody battle?

The population of Bachmut had a population of 70,000 before the war, and now there are only less than 5,000 people.According to an American who taught English in 2010, he was invited to participate in activities with officials of the Ministry of Education before he had been disintegrated by the Soviet Union, and the mayor would also speak in Russian.Described as a "very special teacher".This shows the marginality of this small city on geopolitics.

In terms of strategic, analysis generally believes that Bachomut's value is not great.Although it is a number of main traffic channels, in the western part of the Russian army, there is still a bunch of defensive towns and highlands for defense after the Russian army.The army is now around 15 kilometers west of Bachmart, Chasiv Yar, a tens of thousands of people in the hill.

and to the west, Slovyansk-Kramatorsk, which has been consolidating strict defense since 2014.Whether it is the West, Ukraine, or Russia's military opinion, there are voices against the bloody battles that may damage up to a hundred people daily.

Some people think that the front line was stagnant in July last year, the collapse of Kharkiv Oblast in September, and the exit in the southern Hulson City in November, Putin urgently needed victory, so it will concentrate the firepower to attack BachMatt.Another opinion states that the Wagner Group is the leader of the Wagner Group. Its leader "Putin Kitchen" Yvegeny Prigozhin is so hard to fight for "war skills" to fight for it.Influence in Russian politics.But in any case, if Putin's long -term goal is to merge Donbas, which has become a Russian territory, it is inevitable to attack Bachurul.

Ukraine is said to have been pressured by the United States many times, asking him to retreat from Bachmut, save strength, and stay back to counterattack in the future.However, the long -term attack of the Russian army turned Bach Murte into a symbol of Ukraine's spiritual spirit."Balmut is still" becoming the exciting slogan of the Ukraine.

Ukraine President Volodymyr ZELENSKY also described Bachmut as the word "fortress". When he visited the United States in December last year, he sent the Ukrainian flag signed by the Bachimut front line to the United States to the United States.Congress.For some people, it is only a symbol that defends Bach Murte in life.However, other military analysis believes that defense Bachmut can restrain Russian troops and consume Russian personnel, as you say, "When your enemy is making mistakes, never hinder him."

But do not recognize or not need to be recognized. Under the slowly advancement of the Russian army, Presidential Consultant Alexander Rodnyansky recently stated that if the cost of defense is greater than benefits, the Ukraine will be strategically strategically strategically strategically.Sex abandoning Bachmut, "We won't sacrifice in vain." Although there are reports that Ukraine is sending more personnel to Bachomut, some analysts believe that this is just a operation of "orderly retreat".

Although Bachurut has now become a person who has been in the air, it will eventually fall, but it will be the most great victory in Russia since July last year.However, in May last year, it was different from that Putin would announce the optimistic expectations of victory ceasefire after winning the Asiaka Port City City.Zaporizhzhia and Hersson have been "publicly invested in Russia". The only visible political choice for Putin is to continue to play.The victory of the Russian army has no change in stalemate

On the front line from north to south, the Russian army at this moment undoubtedly regained the initiative.Although the Russian army in January and February, the large -scale offensive against the Vuhledar launched by Vuhledar in the southwest of Donetzka suffered a losing defeat.However, its counterattack in Halkov in the west of Lugusk, and this time, the Russian army showed the endurance of the aid for help.Today's war is the shadow of the early days of Donalda in the early days of Donbass last year: Although the Russian army advances slowly, the Ukraine cannot stop this progress.

But how will this play?

Long -term combat is also endless loss for both sides.Consumption of war is also an unknown bet: For Ukraine, from the perspective of the national population, it is necessary to consume more than personnel.The financial resources and military support of the entire European and American arms offset the disadvantages of the population to some extent. For Russia, many aspects of analysis shows that Russia has also had insufficient ammunition, especially for precision missiles for remote attacks.The number of missile attacks has been greatly reduced since this year. Even if the Putin administration has recently urged the production of military workers, it is also a problem to make up for the consumption on the battlefield under the limitations of Western sanctions.

For both sides, it will be a better way out if you can stop the war with a means of favorable.However, the Russian side obviously hopes that the "local ceasefire" and the "Russian army withdrawal", which is constantly repeated by the Ukraine, is not an acceptable condition for the other party.

In this dilemma, all parties seem to have actions to try to reverse the situation.

Ukrainian forces attacked for the first time?

On March 2nd, there was a diverse attack on the town of Bryansk Oblast, Russia, Russia and Ukraine.Putin even canceled its scheduled scheduled to go to the Caucasus region, published a TV speech, accusing the "new Nazis" to launch a "terrorist attack"; the governor of Budosk, Alexander Bogomaz accusing the incident of dozens of Ukrainian destructives, claiming that they entered enterRussia opened a fire to the vehicles carrying children, killing two civilians and hurting one child; Russian media also reported that six people were hijacked as hostages.Ukraine denied allegations that it was what it was in Russia.

However, an organization called "Russia Volunteer Corps" acknowledged responsibility and claimed to occupy a small town of the incident.This military regiment claims to be composed of Russians, claims to be under the Ukrainian armed forces, and states that the attack is to show the Russians that "hope still" and "free Russians can fight against power by handheld weapons."It can be seen that one of the members of this organization are a whites from Moscow who lived in Germany and moved to Ukraine a few years ago.

The facts behind the attack are difficult to confirm so far.However, from February 26th, a A-50 "Bee Bee" early warning aircraft in the Air Force Base in Beros was attacked by drones. From the background of the ByPol of the White Ross's anti-government armed organization, the power of a certain party did want to create a matterThe Treatment of War -A few days before this attack, President of Bai Ros Lukashenko(Alexander Lukashenko) has just stated that it will not send troops to support Putin's war unless Ukraine attacks the target of Beros.

Chinese factors are unknown

On the other hand, China has also become an element that may reverse the war from different perspectives.Although China ’s position issued by China on February 24 about political solution to the Ukrainian crisis is not a specific peace plan that people expect before, it shows that China seems to have increased the tendency to participate in the Russian and Ukraine war -especially Putin earlier in Moscow in Moscow earlier in MoscowAfter seeing Wang Yi, he has mentioned many times that Xi Jinping visited Russia this spring.

For the United States, the hype "China -Russia Alliance" is very beneficial to attract European allies together to block China. So recently, US officials have been blowing.Perhaps sanctions against China.The doubtful European also warns that China's "weapons loses black" will be a red line.German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's speeches on March 2nd warned China not to send weapons to Russia.Ursula Von der Leyen, chairman of the European Commission, will visit Washington on March 3 and next week -the outside world expects that they will discuss the potential sanctions with Bayon.

But for Europe, it is of course a concern for Chinese military aid Russia. However, after China proposed its position to Ukraine, some European leaders clearly believe that China intends to play a more active on the issue of the Russian and Ukraine War.In their eyes, in their eyes, this has a space for "Chinese pressure to pressure Russia", whether it is French President Emmanuel Macron, or German Chancellor, Tsumarz recently expressed this desire.

As for whether China will be a factor that breaks the long -term ride of Russia and Ukraine, it is yet to be observed, but it can be seen that Xi Jinping's development of the development of Russia in the next few months can know one or two.

British, French, and Germans to promote peace talks?

Although the United States has always emphasized that Ukraine will be supported to the end for a long time, as the 2024 election year is approaching, the Voice of the United States Republican Party from Trump to some parliament members will enter the mainstream media reports.The Republican governor Ron Desantis, the governor of Trump, is most likely to challenge Trump.

The Washington Post reported on February 24 that Britain, France, and Germany believed that the strengthening of NATO's commitment to the Ukraine's aid for the Ukraine enabled Ukraine to defend Russia after the suspension, and encouraged Ukraine to conduct peaceful negotiations with Russia.The report said that when Zelei met with Macron and Tsumers in Paris, the latter two had told Zeleiski to start consideration; the report also quoted French officials that no one believed that Ukraine could repeat itself to capture over grant.Rime -the meaning of words is some kind of "cutting ground" arrangement.

Increasing NATO military aid can be regarded as a "one stone and three birds".First, in the name of NATO, it is more difficult for the United States to withdraw from the government because of the change of the government.The obvious counterattack that launched the war forced Russia to seek peace talks in the disadvantages; the third is to replace NATO with strong military aid, on the one hand to ensure the security of Ukraine in the future, and on the other hand, it also appeases Russia's concerns about NATO's eastward expansion. Of course, the price is Ukraine.Surprove some land to Russia, so that the Russian side can also have a down step.

Just as Macron's remarks of "not negotiating time now" at Macron's meeting, the most ideal development for Europe is that Ukraine counterattacks success, and Russia was forced to return to the negotiating table.But the ideal is of course a distance from reality.

Bachmurt's failure will not break the deadlock, but the motives of seeking to break the deadlock are very obvious.