Peng Qiang: After a year of Russia and Ukraines conflict, is the natural gas cri

Source: 21st Century Business Herald

Author: Peng Qiang

As of now, the Russian -Ukraine conflict that broke out in early 2022 has lasted more than a year. During the period, the global natural gas prices that have experienced ups and downs have been re -returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand.

After February this year, the price of natural gas has continued to fall significantly. The price of natural gas in Europe has decreased by more than 80 % compared with the highest point last year. The overall price has returned to the level before the conflict, and the price of natural gas in Northeast Asia and the United States has continued to decline.Does this mean that the long -awaited natural gas crisis has gone?

Industry insiders pointed out that the fall of natural gas prices is related to factors such as high inventory and mild weather in various places, which leads to decreased heating demand and high gas price depression demand.Although the price of gas has fallen significantly in the near future and the inventory of various places has remained at a high level, the importance of natural gas in the energy structure is becoming more prominent, and the supply and demand of natural gas in the next winter is still difficult to speak.

Global gas price fell

In 2021, the global economy has gradually recovered in the influence of the epidemic. The prices of commodities represented by oil, natural gas and coal have continued to rise all the way. Global gas prices, especially European gas prices, have risen more than several times in previous years.In February 2022, the outbreak of the Russian -Ukraine conflict led to a sudden increase in market panic, and the price of natural gas soared again.By August last year, European natural gas futures prices soared to nearly 350 euros/MWh, and this value exceeded 20 times the average price of the previous years.Driven by the European natural gas crisis, global gas prices have risen simultaneously, refreshing new highs over the years.

But after August last year, the highest historical point in August, global gas prices led by European natural gas entered a decline.By February of this year, the price of natural gas in Europe had fallen below 50 euros/sum hours, a decrease of more than 80 % from the highest point in August last year.According to the statistics of Jinlianchuang, as of March 1, the delivery price of LNG natural gas (LNG) in Northeast Asia fell to nearly $ 14 per million British heat, and in August last year, the value was as high as $ 50/100Wanying heat; New York's natural gas futures price is $ 2.747/million, and the highest price of last August exceeded $ 10/million.

Jin Lianchuang natural gas analyst Wang Yafei told reporters from the 21st Century Economic Herald that recently, global gas prices have fallen due to multiple factors. One is that the temperature in all parts of the world is extremely high than the same period of history, resulting in weak gas heating demand.Natural gas inventory in the United States and Northeast Asia is at a high level, and the spot procurement demand is weak. Third, after the United States experienced a super strong storm at the end of last year, the natural gas output quickly recovered and maintained a high level, and it remained strong for European exports.

In 2022, as Russia's natural gas gradually retired from Europe, the United States transported LNG products in large quantities to Europe, becoming one of the world's largest LNG exporters.Since last winter, the European Union has increased the reserves of LNG resources and adopted various measures to reduce demand. Finally, it added a relatively gentle weather in power to eventually spend the potential natural gas crisis in 2022.

A similar situation has occurred in the Chinese market.In 2022, natural gas production in China is still increasing, but due to the demand for high -priced gas suppression of imports and also affected by various factors such as epidemics, the national natural gas consumption has fallen for the first time, and LNG imports have also fallen for the first time in 7 years.

According to the data released by the National Development and Reform Commission, the National Bureau of Statistics, and the General Administration of Customs, in 2022, the national natural gas apparent consumption was 366.3 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 1.7%year -on -year; the national natural gas output was 220.11 billion cubic meters, a year -on -year increase of 6.6 increase%; Last year, the total domestic imports were 109.248 million tons, a decrease of 9.9%year -on -year, of which LNG imports fell by 19.5%.

Tianfeng Securities analyst Zhang Yan pointed out that the recent decline in gas prices in the United States is mainly due to European natural gas swelling libraries, which has slowed down the demand for LNG. The US LNG exports have decreased.Factors such as lagging infrastructure construction.

In the past year, many European and American countries have repeatedly put pressure on Russia in the field of oil and coal, but the natural gas field has occupied the active pressure reduction of exports. The European Union has so far been introduced to embargoing or embarked on Russia's natural gas orRestriction of procurement measures.

The natural gas crisis has not yet gone

Analysts believe that at present, the global natural gas supply and demand situation in the first half of this year is more loose than last year, but the next winter will still face challenges. Europe depends more on LNG resources. This will also exacerbate the international market LNG.Purchasing competition.

The transformation of the "bull and bear market" of the global natural gas market also reflects the re -discharge of the global natural gas trade landscape caused by the breakdown of the European Union and Russia: Russia has shifted the goal from Western Europe to Asia, and the European Union is facing the European Union.North America and Middle East and Northern Africa sought natural gas cooperation, which increased the competition for LNG resources in the international market.

Before the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Asia -Pacific region was the main source of incremental LNG trade in the world. China and Japan were one of the largest LNG import countries in the region;Essence

Energy Giant Shells pointed out in the 2023 LPG (LNG) prospects they released that the significant growth of European countries' demand for LNG imports will exacerbate the competition in the global market.

FATIH Birol, Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said in an interview with the media that despite the sharp decline in natural gas prices, Europe did not win energy wrestling with Russia, and governments should continue to focus on reducing demand and increasing supply.

FATIH Birol warned that Russia may reduce its remaining pipelines transported to Europe through Ukraine and Turkish pipelines, and with the recovery of Asian countries, the competition for shipping LNG supply may increase.

As the United States, as a major natural gas exporter in the world, the significantly lower price of natural gas in the near future has triggered the market to restrict production capacity over low gas prices, which may lead to a new round of concerns about supply and demand.

Wang Yafei said that the US natural gas manufacturer has shown that the investment willingness of investment is lower dueHigh -level operation, the supply situation is optimistic.

In terms of demand, Wang Yafei said that benefiting from the effects of mild temperature in winter to suppress gas consumption demand, the inventory of various places in the gas injection period is still high, and the spot procurement needs will still be weak. Generally speaking, global natural gas supply and demand in the first half of the year will be.The situation is still relatively loose.

Zhang Ye predicts that under the influence of the growth of production and the rise of temperature, in 2023, the US natural gas supply and demand will be relaxed by 2022, and it is expected to enter a slow -accumulated stage.The influence of the conduction effect, the weakening of the US LNG export demand may bring the relatively decline of the US natural gas price center in 2023.

Qin Yan, chief analyst of Lufute Electricity and Carbon, introduced to the 21st Century Business Herald that the Russian -Ukraine conflict has changed the import and export model of energy. In the future, Europe will continue to rely on LNG, and the LNG station that has been built last year will be repaired.In the future, they will be assets of stock.

"At present, the European energy industry is most concerned about how to make up the libraries in the next winter. Major analysis agencies are also reminding everyone to continue to save the use of natural gas and ensure LNG supply, because the next winter European EuropeThe situation of natural gas supply and demand is still serious. "Qin Yan said.

According to data statistics from IEA, it can be seen that the reduction of gas in Europe this winter is one -third of the weather because of weather, that is, moreIt is hard to say whether the next winter has such good luck in the next winter.