Ye Dehao: The rules for making the Chinese chip bill are released on the calculation o

Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

The US Department of Commerce announced on February 28 the semiconductor production subsidy application procedures (production subsidies accounted for about 39 billion U.S. dollars) of the semiconductor production subsidy application procedures of $ 53 billion (71 billion yuan) chip bill.Any successful applicant must sign an agreement with Washington to ensure that in 10 years, "Any Foreign Country of Concern will participate in any important transaction involving semiconductor capacity expansion."

Since the Ministry of Commerce shows its goal is to establish a "cutting -edge logical chip" manufacturing industry chain in the United States. The only major companies with qualified are TSMC, Samsung, and Intel.Standing in the United States to stop the cost of investing in China, of course, it will impact the development of China's chip manufacturing industry.

However, under the banner of "making China", Biden received two parties in Congress to support the chip bill of Congress, but not only to target China, but also a series of internal and external policy goals.The calculation of this "one stone" may be the "Achilles' Heel" of this policy (meaning "fatal weakness").

May offend allies

In addition to the long -term competitive goals of the development of China's semiconductor industry, the chip bill is to deal with a "national security" problem, which is essentially not directly related to competition between China and the United States.U.S. Minister of Commerce Gina Raimondo recently interviewed showed that more than 90 % of advanced chips in the United States came from Taiwan, referring to "a national security weakness that cannot continue."She also pointed out that the national defense and intelligence agencies will participate in the implementation of the chip bill and put forward opinions for it.

This kind of remarks and intentions for Taiwan will of course cause some people to question whether the United States intentionally breaks the so -called "Silicon Shield" in Taiwan.

Under the packaging of defending national security, the US Department of Commerce proposed four goals to be achieved in 2030: one is to establish at least two new large -scale cutting -edge logical chip manufacturing factories clusters, and the other is to establish in the United States to establishThe three high -quality advanced chip packaging facilities, the third is to produce high -end cutting -edge memory chips, and the fourth is to enhance the production capacity of modern and mature technology chips for key domestic industries.

The four major goals, in conjunction with the leading position of the US existing key technologies in chip design and chip production and design, say that wearing it is the only leader in the United States to become a semiconductor industry again.Although the Ministry of Commerce said it would establish a cross -border semiconductor supply chain with the United States allies, this will inevitably conflict with the policy of attracting companies to invest in the United States with mass subsidies to attract enterprises., South Korea, Japan and other countries or regions with aspiring chip industries are in a vicious subsidy -this makes people think of Bayidon on the other side to protect the domestic industry, and on the other side to promote the inflation reduction method of the new energy industry, how can it cause the European allies earlierComplaints.

This will not only hurt the diplomatic relations of the United States, but also may cause problems such as overlapping capacity, artificial push chip manufacturing costs, and so on.

chip bill change social policy?

"suppressing China" and "National Security" seem to be similar, and the policy goals as the same chip bill are not exaggerated.However, the chip bill of Biden also comes with domestic policy goals such as a series of regulatory corporate behaviors, improving the rights and interests of workers, strengthening human resources training, racial gender equality, and promoting emission reduction.

First of all, according to the Ministry of Commerce, the subsidy enterprise will be prohibited from using the chip bill to pay dividends or repurchase shares, and related companies also need to report to the Ministry of Commerce in detail their stock repurchase plans for the next five years.Share repurchase is deemed to have only manually pushed the stock price, and the shareholders and the company's senior management are not helpful for innovation and productivity.Biden officially hopes to use the profit of the chip bill to regulate corporate behavior at the same time.

Secondly, companies with a US government funded more than 150 million US dollars need to be divided into parts of the government, which is more than expected to be divided into the government, and the government is reused above the semiconductor industry.As for what is "beyond expectations", it is determined by individual cases, depending on the financial forecast of the aided enterprises.

Moreover, if enterprises are subsidized by the chip bill, it is likely to accept the establishment of the trade union, provide higher wages, and use the US -made materials (such as steel, iron, etc.) to build its factory.Human training programs such as the deployment of employee training and how to cooperate with local governments to support the development of technology schools will also be an element of subsidy approval elements.

At the same time, more than $ 150 million companies must also provide "children's care" services for their factories and employees of factories. This is to increase women's labor participation.The documents of the Ministry of Commerce pointed out that if women's labor participation rates are the same as men, American workers will increase by more than 10 million.The popularization of children's care services is a major policy goal of Biden who has never passed Congress, so it can only be implemented by the chip bill.

In addition, whether enterprises can provide opportunities for small enterprises to participate in their factories to build and produce and supply chains for small enterprises owned by ethnic minorities, veterans or women, and they will also be one of the conditions for applying for consideration.If an enterprise can prove its responsibility for the climate and environment, such as promising to fully use renewable energy, it can also get extra points.

The above series of requirements on domestic policy goals, as well as the expenses, will reduce the attractiveness of the chip bill subsidy, let alone the cost of consolidating between China and the United States.Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group (temporary translation), told the New York Times that trying to achieve a lot of unrelated goals will make it more difficult to enhance the core challenge of the US semiconductor industry.Essence

For the application details of the Ministry of Commerce, the US chip industry response is generally positive.However, the $ 53 billion in funding of the chip bill, in the context of the total investment of global semiconductor companies in 10 years, is expected to be as high as US $ 3 trillion, in fact, it is only Jiiu and one hairy, and because many countries around the world are pushing subsidies for semiconductors,Enterprises also have other better potential choices.In addition to high funding, the advantages of the United States are probably the technical advantages of its level outside the semiconductor industry manufacturing, and even the US market and geopolitical influence.

Whether Biden can rely on the chip bill while revitalizing the US semiconductor industry, while suppressing China, and at the same time, it is necessary to promote a series of domestic economic and social policy goals. It is probably to see how enthusiastic the company will finally apply for subsidies.