Source: Bloomberg
After the reorganization of the Chinese government position next month, the People's Bank of China may be led by two new officials.
According to a person familiar with the matter, the outside world is generally expected that the current president Yi Gang will step down, and Zhu Hexin, who is experienced by the experienced experience.The Wall Street Journal reported that He Lifeng, the new vice -prime minister responsible for economic policy, is expected to become the secretary of the Central Bank Party Committee.
Economists and analysts said that the personnel changes in the report may not imply that monetary policy will change significantly, but to confirm the recent signal, that is, the central bank's radical degree in curbing debt and financial risks may be slightThere is a decline and continue to implement reforms that have been implied.
Although the personnel adjustment has not yet been finalized, some analysts have expressed their views on the impact of the policy.
Christopher Beddor, deputy director of China Research, said that the next central bank's leadership may "bring the central bank in the direction of not so eagle."
"It is really difficult to imagine that there will be a hawk like Guo Shuqing in terms of monetary policy and bank supervision." Beddor said when the Central Bank Party Committee and Chairman of the Banking Regulatory Commission said.
"He Lifeng is essentially a local government official. Most of the time spent his career on the development of the local economy, and sometimes it is achieved with the help of large -scale infrastructure." Beddor added."This can be understood, but it also means that he may not have the same alertness of the danger of debt as Guo Shuqing or Liu He."
Ding Shuang, the chief economist of Standard Chartered China and North Asia, predicts that monetary policy will not change significantly.
"Monetary policy may continue in the direction of reform that has been determined, and there will be no new ideas or major changes," he said."The basic direction of monetary policy formulation and implementation has been determined."
Although some major progress has been made in the past few years, the People's Bank of China is still in the process of reforming and relaxing the interest rate and exchange rate system.The central bank has also been improving the role of structural monetary policy tools, while strengthening the supervision of bank lending behaviors to control risks.
High -level political officials arranged high -level political officials at the central bank have caused external speculation, and the centralized decision -making will mean.But Gabriel Wildau, managing director of the consulting company Teneo Holdings LLC., said that the personnel changes in the report may actually bring more pragmatic policies.
"The Central Bank of China has never been independent of politics, or even at all, so the appointment of the personnel in the report will not sign any changes in this aspect," Wildau said.He said that the Politburo would "as always" to "as always" a major change in the approval of monetary policy.
He added that a member of the Politburo was arranged to be the secretary of the Party Committee of the Central Bank "even injecting a greater degree of political pragmatism." Given that Guo Shuqing was never a member of the Politburo.
Wildau said that foreign observers often regard the central bank's decision -making as a confrontation between the technical bureaucracy of "strong reform" and "compromise politician".However, he believes that the recent real estate market rectification "seems to be promoted by central bank officials that are mainly under regulations. They have warned the risk of bubbles for many years, and later they finally saw the opportunity to contain bubbles."
"Looking back, if there are some pragmatic political intervention earlier, it may be better," he said.
