Yi Fuxian

The Chinese government officially confirmed the decline in population in January this year.This has caused many observers to doubt whether China's current population trend threatens its stability.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the first time the population appeared for the first time in the 60 years last year, it was nine years earlier than the government's prediction.The fertility rate (the fertility of each woman) fell to 1.0 to 1.1, which was far lower than the official forecast 1.8.The most noteworthy is that although China turned to a second child policy in 2016, the number of births still dropped sharply to 9.56 million, the lowest level since 1790.

However, the rapid drop in the number of births is an illusion, which is the result of severe exaggeration before 2020.For example, the sampling survey in 2016 showed that the fertility rate was 1.25, the birth population was only 13 million, and it was later exaggerated to 18.83 million.Similarly, the United Nations World Population Prospects (WPP) report is usually considered to be a reliable source of China's population trend estimation and prediction, but every time it is wrong, without exception.The WPP in 2022 believes that the Chinese population has declined since last year (10 years earlier than the 2019 forecast), and I estimate that the decline in 2018.The latest WPP also predicts that the Chinese population will drop to 767 million in 2100, far lower than its earlier prediction of 1.065 billion.

WPP's predictions are still overestimating the Chinese population.In 2022, WPP set the Chinese population to 1.43 billion, but I estimate that it is less than 1.28 billion.In addition, according to WPP data, China had a birth population of 28.2 million and 17.4 million in 1990 and 2000, respectively.However, the census in 1990 and 2000 showed that China's birth population was 23.7 million and 14.2 million, respectively. The number of ninth grade students in 2004 and 2014 also confirmed this.

The WPP in 2022 also exaggerated the number of future population in China, predicting the fertility rates from 2023 to 2050 and 2051 to 2100, respectively 1.31 and 1.45, respectively.This is not the case for the Chinese fertility rate in this area.The average fertility rate of Chinese in Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and Singapore has been 1.0 to 1.1 in the past 20 years, which is the lowest level in the world, although local officials have implemented fertility policies.

China's efforts to improve fertility rates face three major challenges.First of all, the only child policy has reshaped the Chinese economy, which greatly increases the cost of raising children.The disposable income of Chinese families is only 44%of GDP (GDP), while the United States is 72%and the United Kingdom is 65%.In 2020, the value of the Chinese real estate market is four times that of the country's GDP, while the United States is 1.6 times.

Chinese decision makers are facing a dilemma: if the real estate bubble is not broken, the young couple will not be able to raise two children.But if the bubble is really broken, the Chinese economy will slow down, and the global financial crisis will explode.Similarly, increased home disposable income to 60%to 70%of GDP to increase fertility, which may weaken the government's power and destroy the current economic basis of "internal authority and aggressive" policy policy.

Considering these difficult weighing, Chinese policy makers may be more inclined to replicate Japanese policies to reduce childcare costs, such as reducing tuition fees, and providing convenient support for young couples, maternity subsidies, and housing subsidies.However, it turns out that Japan's approach is costly and invalid: the country's fertility rate has temporarily increased, from 1.26 in 2005 to 1.45 in 2015, and then fell to 1.23 in 2022.Coupled with China's "not rich first", lack of imitation of Japan's financial resources.

China's population crisis has both physiological reasons and cultural reasons.As more women postpone marriage and fertility, the infertility rate rose from 2%in the early 1980s to 18%in 2020.From 2013 to 2021, the number of first -marriage fell by more than half, and the number of first -marriage people between the ages of 20 and 24 fell three -quarters.The 36 -year -old child policy has been implemented, which has been irreversible to change the concept of the Chinese people: having a child, or not born, has become the normal social state.

Among Chinese women, the younger generations, the more they seem to be unwilling to have children.A recent survey found that the average willingness of Chinese women was 1.64, but the average willingness to give birth to women after 1990 was 1.54, and 1.48 after 2000.In contrast, the average willingness of South Korea and Hong Kong is 1.92 and 1.41 respectively (the fertility rates of both are about half of the willingness).If this decline in fertility can explain what problems, it is difficult for China to stabilize the fertility rate at 0.8. By 2050, the population will drop below 1.02 billion, and by 2100, it will drop to 310 million.

In ancient China, the population decreased due to war and famine, but recovered quickly, similar to normal bleeding regeneration.The decline in modern population is like Aplaastic Anemia, which is difficult to recover.

Even if China has successfully increased the fertility rate to 1.1 and prevents it from falling. By 2050, the population may fall to 1.08 billion, and by 2100 to 440 million.China accounts for the world's population ratio, from 37%in 1820 to 22%from 1950 to 1980, from 2050 to 11%, and will be reduced to 4%by 2100.

The impact of the decline in population is intensified by rapid aging, which will slow down China's growth and may increase government debt.The ratio of population 65 and above will rise from 14%in 2020 to 35%in 2050.In 2020, each 65 and above elderly people have five workers aged 20 to 64.This proportion will continue to decline. By 2035, 2.4 workers will support an old man, and in 2050, a 1.6 workers will support one old man.

By then, China's pension crisis will become a humanitarian disaster.The average life expectancy of women is six to seven years longer than men, and usually a few years younger than their spouse.They will eventually pay for this painful population structure.

The author is the University of Wisconsin University Madison

Senior scientist of obstetrics and gynecology, author of a big country to nest

(Big Country with An Empty Nest)

English Original: China is dying out

All rights reserved: Project syndicate, 2023.

The UN World Population Outlook (WPP) report is usually considered to be a reliable source of estimates and predictions in China's population trend, but it is wrong every time, without exception.The WPP in 2022 believes that the Chinese population has declined since last year (10 years earlier than the 2019 forecast), and I estimate that the decline in 2018.The latest WPP also predicts that the Chinese population will drop to 767 million in 2100, far lower than its earlier prediction of 1.065 billion.