Source: Ming Pao

Author: Zhang Wang

On the evening of February 20, 2023, the Japanese media widely reported the news of the US President Biden secretly visiting Ukraine.In this regard, domestic public opinion in Japan is not a taste.It is said that the Japanese Prime Minister Kishita Kishita planned to visit Ukraine with the European leader group as early as last year. However, due to the rigid administrative rules and regulations in Japan, Prime Minister Kishida failed to achieve Ukrado.To this day, Japan is the only country in the G7 that has not sent leaders to visit Kiev.

The first anniversary of the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, this war that happened in Europe undoubtedly also affected Japan's perception of its own safe environment in East Asia.On December 16, 2022, the Japanese government officially released the three -document of security, namely the national security strategy, the national defense strategy (original defense plan outline), and the defense capabilities (original midterm defense capabilities).After the security bill was passed, Japan began to develop "counterattack" based on deterrent logic and became a capable country with both offensive and defensive.If you use a football game for an analogy: Japan in the past can only keep his own dragon gate and do not have the qualifications to attack each other; now, the Japanese team has become able to attack and defend, and can kick the ball into the opponent's Dragon Gate.

Security documents highlight Japan's uneasiness

For the changes in the above -mentioned Japanese security policy, the mainstream interpretation of China is that the Russian and Ukraine War caused Japan to find an opportunity to strengthen defense forces. Tokyo is moving towards politics and military powers with Russia and Ukraine's conflict.But is this interpretation accurately grasping the real facts of Japan?

The turning point of the Japanese security policy is often related to the major security impact of the outside world. It may not be due to the strategic measures planned in advance: the Persian Gulf War in 1991, Japan was accused of "only money or no people" by the United States.It will only "take a car", which will cause Japanese leaders to think about letting the Self -Defense Forces from going abroad to contribute to the international community.At the end of 2022, the Foreign History Museum declosed in the Foreign History Museum in 1991 in 1991, which disclosed that the Ambassador to the United States, Murata, urged the sea government to send lightning boats to the Persian Gulf as soon as possible.The internal decision -making does not follow a unified borrowing of a ship out of the coastal diplomatic strategy. In 2001, the anti -terrorist war and the Iraq war in 2003, Japan actively sent troops to support the U.S. military in order to avoid being criticized by Washington and engaged in logistical support in non -front -line areas.Similarly, the Russian and Ukraine War that broke out in 2022 made Japanese society suddenly realize that the practice of changing the national line through military strength was resurrected in the 21st century, and the world returned to the jungle logic of realism.(In East Asia, Japan has no nuclear weapons or medium -range missiles, and the three countries of China, Russia, and North Korea are available.) The emotions behind them are: uneasiness, fear, and fear.

Farewell to rely on the United States and non -armed peaceism

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The Russian and Ukraine War became a mirror of Japan's reflection on its own defense, which aroused Japan's concerns about Russia's invasion and the conflict between the Sino -Japanese islands.At present, the mainstream public opinion in Japan believes that if foreign invasion of Japan, is it still the Japanese who still want to die with the concept of peacetime?The Japanese media also found that the self -defense team responsible for the defense lacks the ability to renew the war and the ammunition reserves were seriously insufficient (the fighter parts were shared, the east wall was demolished and the west wall) and the army's aging (an average age was 36; the 2022 Maritime Self -Defense Force in 2022The average age of a cadre graduate class is as high as 45 years).In addition, the Haiku and Air Self -Defense Force was not in a full state, and there were insufficient chronic manpower (2022 data: Lu Ziyan membership rate: 92.7%; Hai Zi full personnel rate: 95.9%; air -to -full personnel rate: 93.2%).At the same time, the Russian and Ukraine War also impacted Japanese folk peaceists.There is a peaceful anti -war group in Hiroshima that they have begun to face many people's doubts: if foreign invasion of Japan, should citizens continue to persist in unbroken peaceism?

After the war in Japan, the national style of Japan has never been peacefulism, but a country that follows realism.According to a study by American scholar Jennifer M. Lin, after the war, Japan has always adopted the Buck-Passing strategy to push military security responsibilities to the United States by consciously, so that it can focus on post-war recovery and economic development.According to Weber's definition: the country is an entity that "has a monopoly position with legal use of violence".According to this standard, Japan has not been a normal country after the war.Article 9 of the Constitution and the United States and Japan Insurance Treaty is like a lack of packages for Japan: that is, it can be used as a shields that resist the expansion of Japan to expand the army, and can also be used to deter the potential opponents in East Asia to ensure their national security.That is to say, Japan has always been in the abnormal state between "militaryism" and "peaceism".In 2022, the Russian and Ukraine War made Japan awake: in the past, the package could not be used anymore, and rely on the existence of potential risks in the United States (the U.S. outbreak of the United States did not directly participate in the war).

On February 20th, the famous military stone in the Liberal Democratic Party raised a series of questions on Prime Minister's Prime Minister on the Defense issue in the Japanese parliament, so that the outside world was still glimpse.Mature.Ishiwen: First, Japan purchased a large number of Tomahawk cruise missiles from the United States, but these missiles were the products of the 1990s.In today's era, drone gliding bombs to the battlefield. Can Japan build so -called counterattack capabilities to deter China and Russia by these outdated weapons?Second, the defense province must build a super -aerated frigate to achieve missile defense, but there is no concept of how to protect such a huge sum of money at sea. How to explain?

As an East Asian island country that has been in the peace era for a long time, Japan is still in the primary stage of learning political games in great powers.Japan's normal nationalization has just begun.

Professor Huai Huai, Department of International Education, Waseda University in Japan