Any major historical events occur suddenly. It must pass a period of different lengths of length, and the cause and effect relationship is not a straight line. In the process, it is occasionally reversed and even reversed.
On February 13, the subway was finally ate, and the security personnel who were guarded near the gate were finally ashamed to put on a mask as before.Just like the Lianhe Morning Post said: "Unless the body is weak and ill or physical discomfort, it shows people from the true face to show people from the true face.Not only are social etiquette, but also the condition for establishing basic mutual trust ... Too many people wear masks, I am afraid it is easy to breed very good psychological suggestions. "Indeed, the new normal is finally coming, and it should have a new normal look.However, the reason why the new normal is new also means that you can no longer go back to the normal state before the epidemic.
I talked about the provident fund because of the budget news news, and when the interest rate of 2.5%of the ordinary account was too low, some elderly depositors who were worried about the value of the provident fund savings would have to try to invest in another provident fund deposit, orSurvey into a regular deposit of commercial banks with higher interest.Therefore, the voices of hoping to raise interest rates in hopes to increase interest rates in the society.However, this will crack down on the young house owner who is still repaying the mortgage. After all, the water rises. If you want to reduce the inflation of the depositors and increase the interest rate, the 2.6%mortgage interest rate of the loan from the Housing Development Bureau must be raised.The mortgage of some commercial banks in the market has approached 5%.
Readers who are interested in financial investment may think that the high interest rate action taken by the Federal Reserve to suppress inflation will not last too long. After all, compared with the low interest rates so far, this is very state.However, the so -called low interest rate in the past, history is very short, and it may be abnormal itself. From the 15 years from 2008 to 2022, the interest rate of the US -Federal Reserve Federal Fund Fund interest rate (FFR) from 2008 to 2022 did have 10 years.It is rare less than 1%.However, historical records show that although the FFR was below 2%in the four years from 2002 to 2005, the FFR also reached a peak of 20%in 1980. Since the decourse of the US dollar and gold in 1971, the average value of the FFR has now high.In 5%.
In the Wall Street Loan Crisis from 2007 to 2008, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest investment bank in the United States, announced bankruptcy on September 15, 2008, and shocked.In order to save the United States and the global economy from crash, the Fed has opened "quantitative easing" to printed banknotes.As a cooperation, the Federal Reserve quickly lowered interest rates from 5.02%in 2007 in 2007, and fell to an average annual average of 1.92%in the following year.But by 2020, it fell to an average annual average of 0.36%.On February 24, 2022, the Russian and Ukraine War began, which led to a global inflation. The Federal Reserve ’s interest rate was as high as 4.58%this year, and there was no sign of the rise.
The Russian and Ukraine War also broke another "normal myth."American warrior reporter and missionary Chris Hedges, published in the New York Times on July 6, 2003, saying that if the war is defined as a violent conflict that leads to more than 1,000 deaths, in the past 3400 years of human beingsIn the long history, only 268 years are "peace", accounting for 8%of the total time.In other words, human history is essentially a history of war. War is normal and peaceful.This is very different from the experience of contemporary people.
This may be related to the international environment of contemporary people.In modern history, there are so -called "long peace", also called "peace under the United States", which refers to the outbreak of the Gulf War in 1991 from 1945 at the end of World War II.
During this period, the two major super powers of the Cold War and the military groups led by their respectives did not outbreak of international large -scale wars like Russia invaded Ukraine last year.For the about three generations of "peace under the United States" and the glory of economic globalization accompanied by the glory of the United States, it is inevitable that the Russian and Ukraine War is an abnormality.
When he first debuted, it coincided with the collapse of the Berlin wall, and then the Cold War suddenly ended.I still remember that when they were training newcomers, the Chiefs helplessly pointed out that in the Cold War of the Cold War, who was the enemy, who was friends, and clearly, now the entire familiar geopolitical structure collapsed, and she had to re -recognize the enemy and friends.relation.If the Russian force in 2014 and swallowed the Crimean Peninsula was a prelude to the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War last year. The problem left over from the disintegration of the Soviet Union after the end of the Cold War was the far cause of this war in 2022.
Using an unsuccessful metaphor, Russian President Putin invaded Ukraine, just like after the crown disease epidemic was unblocked, some people thought that they could return to the normal state before the epidemic.long".
Putin tried to restore the territory of the Soviet Union, and even fantasized that he was the Emperor Peter, but he did not know that the new normal is that it was different from the normal state.However, the paradox is that Putin's war behavior has also overturned the short or abnormal "normal" of "Changhe Peace" in a sense, allowing the world to enter the normal state of war at 92%of history.
Any major historical events occur suddenly. It must pass a period of different lengths of length, and the cause and effect relationship is not a straight line development. In the process, it is occasionally reversed and even reversed.The global low -interest rate was broken by the Russian and Ukraine War.Similarly, based on the international relations of global supply chain that completely considers economic efficiency, it is also returning to the "normal" diplomatic environment that must consider that trading partners may weapon trading.EssenceIt is naturally difficult to succeed in cheap capital derived from low interest rates.
When the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Huang Xuncai spoke in the 2023 financial budget, spent a lot of space explaining the current situation, and described the world's average "cruel inflation".This reminder, coupled with the continued interest of the Fed's interest rate hike, allows people who look forward to returning to the "low interest rate norm", I am afraid that it will be more weighing.Just as the mask does reduce the occurrence of infectious diseases and protect personal health, but wearing a mask all the time, it may make the autoimmune system unable to play normally, but in the long run, it will weaken the ability to resist disease.
