Outside the wall
Close the gate of immigration, let the population continue to shrink along the ultra -low fertility rate, the country has lost its competitiveness, the economic cakes are getting smaller and smaller, and the soldiers will be less than counting. In the endIs it the future we want?
Wang Peter
When the "Chinese" year, a group of black and white photos came from the relative group.It was a photo of the three generations of my uncle's marriage in the 1970s.In the middle of the center, a couple and my grandfather Ah are lined up in three lines. There are many adults and more children. Among them, there are "four tiger cubs" that are often nicknamed in the same year because in the same tiger year.The grandson at home adds four.
Curiously counted, there are 44 people in the photos!Today, if my parents, me, three sisters, and their own spouses and children, they also took such a family portrait. How much is the number of people?15.Among them, five grandsons in the inside and outside, I contributed two.
Oh my god, just a generation separated by two -thirds.
Regarding the shrinking population, a news has shocked many people recently, that is, China ’s first negative growth since the early 1960s has appeared in the early 1960s.This is a historic turn, marking the beginning of the decline in China's population.What's more, "less people are difficult to do" are not only the trouble of China, but the phenomenon of the entire East Asia after the successful transformation of the economy, which is far from being influenced.
East Asians have begun to enter countdown
The most desperate is South Korea.The women there were only 0.79 children in their lives.This is the world's lowest fertility rate announced at the end of last year, and it is also a record for Koreans.How terrible is 0.79?No one, so one day will return to zero, none of the Koreans?
On the other side of the Japan Sea, the problem is also unsolvable.My colleague came back and lamented very intuitive: Japan became desolate, no one in the store, and there were more and more empty houses.
Compared with China, the Japanese population has entered negative growth earlier, and aging has also gone ahead.At present, among its more than 123 million people, the proportion of the elderly is close to 30 %.Some experts estimate that the Japanese population will be reduced to more than 80 million in about 50 years, with 14 million left in 200 years and 4.5 million after 300 years.If Singapore can hold it, there will be more population than Japan at that time!
What kind of picture will it be?Readers can make up their own brain.My estimate is that Singapore will be happy to invite Japan to join our Little Guo Forum, and the 3G (The Global Governance Group) specially spoken for the small country.Yes, my meaning is shallow, and Japan, who is reduced to a small country, must no longer have the national strength of the G7, and it is even more unpopular to fight for the permanent member of the United Nations Security Council.
Taiwan is also worth introducing.Some people say that it is a small copy of Japan, but it is only a few years.But as I look, because the birth rate is lower than that of Japan, the crisis will inevitably come in the future.In fact, the population of Taiwan has begun to decline three years ago. I believe it is the wildness since its own human beings on the island. Local friends jokingly said that they "raw (numbers) are not as good as dead (numbers)."I heard what "23 million people" after more than 10 years, and it is estimated that it will soon be changed to "22 million".
Vietnam and North Korea are the only two countries that are still growing in this region, but the growth rate has slowed to less than 1%. It seems that it is very close to the inflection point from going downhill.
Why does the population in East Asia turn from prosperity to decline?To explore the answer, maybe you must first understand the social form of the past. Why are you willing to have children?Which conditions have no longer exist now?
Women are no longer a fertility machine
Taking China as an example, it is generally believed that geometric explosion increased in the middle of the Qing Dynasty, and it exceeded 400 million during the Daoguang period.It is the population of the population, and it is the improvement of household registration and statistical progress, so that the "invisible" population will appear.
In fact, children in ancient life have the most primitive motivation. Few people are willing to mention it, but they are the most core.
In the long -term period when the legal system is lacking, there are still many places where the government or gentry cannot control, and the living environment is relatively bad.A family, not only does people mean productivity, but also about personal safety. At least they can be bullied less.From the perspective of expansion, between the village, the village, the clan, and the clan, they often fight for resources for resources.
There is a story of Song Jiang's three dozen wishes to Zhujiazhuang in the Water Margin.Extinction is extremely miserable.Of course, this is a novel. In the real world, I imagine that if the woman in the wishes can be more raw, there are thousands of male Ding, and the ending can be reversed, so as to avoid the catastrophe.
Entering modern society that talks about the rule of law and the contract, people no longer need to attach to the major clan to seek a sense of security.Coupled with several rounds of industrial revolution, the individual is "atomic", and the motion of maternity is even worse than before.
There is a more critical role in the concept of men and women, or the decline of patriarchy on population trends.It mainly sends it in the popularity of education, and women have invested in the workplace, so that they have been completely liberated before they are unprecedented. From then on, they are no longer an accessory, and they are no longer a fertility machine.
The improvement of independent personality, knowledge and economic status allows modern women to have more life options, including celibenism.As for those who are willing to get married, the marriage age is delayed; coupled with convenient contraceptive means, the trend of declining childization in the future is irreversible.In short, women can realize self -worth, and can be said to be "no". It is a great progress of human civilization. It is only the price of the country or the community to bear it. If you can't hide the gray rhinos, you must summarize it.
East Asian people do not have birth and less birth, and are also related to the lack of religious assistance.Like South American countries that mainly believe in Catholicism, they rarely make trouble, because the Vatican resolutely opposes abortion.The situation in the Philippines is similar. Before World War II, the population was only more than 10 million, and today it has exceeded 100 million, and they are not only Catholics, but also the southern Muslims, because the Cocai also believes that abortion is a crime.Nigeria is another prominent example. It happens to be reversed. Muslims are mainly, Catholics are second, and the fertility rate has reached an amazing 5.3%.Today, the country with the largest population in Africa has ranked seventh in the world.
Some people say that Confucianism does not have the persuasion of "no filial piety, no afterwards"?And whether the true meaning of this sentence has been misunderstood for thousands of years, this kind of incense must continue moral pressure. It may still be used in the old age, but it has long been "spawned" today.
Solution can only rely on immigrants?
In fact, in the cultural genes of East Asian people, there is a thing to suppress fertility, that is, it is believed that it is better to cultivate one or two of the people, or dilute resources, or dilute resources.The Chinese often say that "fighting chicken blood" to children is the implementation of this kind of less life and "essence", and it is not reckless, especially the parents in the city (a kind of familiarity, which makes you very resonate.? Yes, many local Chinese parents came over, because everyone was culturally the same).
However, in the face of high -intensity competition and high costs, some people clenched their teeth and faced the difficulties, but some people began to question, is it worth such a "volume" method?It was even determined that he couldn't afford to be born nor raised, and he retreated early.Last Saturday, at the China Population and Development Forum held in Beijing, experts and officials were in a hurry, saying that the "lifeless rate" of Chinese women has risen from 6.1%in 2015 to nearly 10%in 2020.The current number of children has fallen from 1.63 in 2019, freely falling to 1.19 in 2022 and so on.At the conference, there are still a lot of shocking data. After reading the news, I have an ominous premonition: In the end, there is such a day, and I am willing to bring a new life to a woman in this world.
What should I do?The only way out seems to be introduced.
When I was young, I watched football teams such as Britain, France, and Germany. It was almost white. Nowadays, half of the blacks or North African races are more common.Obviously, many European countries are relying on immigrants to slow down the decline in population.Of course, the right right of various countries is very dissatisfied, and they are particularly afraid of being used by Islam, and the relationship between ethnic groups is always tight.The British even came out of the Asian Hindu Prime Minister, such a heterogeneity, but it is inevitable for immigration.
But immigrants cannot help China, because the population base is too large, it can only fill others, no one can fill it.It is also very difficult to accept foreign people with a large scale in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan, unless the limit is coming.But the development and international metropolis has this advantage.Like Hong Kong, the population is never a problem, because the gate can be opened at any time, and people are introduced from the mainland. It should be noted that it should not be too much in the south cavity.Therefore, although Hong Kong has been turbulent for a while, the population has always remained stable.
There are no Singaporeans on the earth
As a city country, in recent decades, Singapore has also rely on immigrants to have the accumulation of this population, and it has generally maintained the population composition, and it also made the pace of aging slightly slower.Just walking forward, everyone knows that the difficulty is that he can't do water and milk blending, but he lifts him for a day.For example, people can always see people complaining that foreigners have snatched rice and bowls and places; house prices and car prices are high, and they blame others. Recently, some people are uncomfortable to hang a national flag on the balcony.
The fragility of our population is congenital and structural, including some cultural factors mentioned above, so it is impossible to replace ourselves at all.Close the door of immigration, let the population continue to shrink along the ultra -low fertility rate, the country loses its competitiveness, the economic cakes are getting smaller and smaller, and the soldiers are in the end.Is the future?
It is a pity that few people think about this subject of survival or destruction, and discussions are often emotional.Frank, rational and vision, always scarce.
Is there a Singaporean on the earth hundreds of years later?I have no answer at all. I only know that after another 10 to 20 years, it was my turn to sit in the C position. When I took my three generations of the same hall, the number of people was likely to end in 10 hand indexes.
And the premise must be that children are willing to get married and have children, otherwise, there are no three generations.
The author is the deputy editor -in -chief of United Zaobao
