Source: Taiwan Industry and Commerce Times
Industrial and Commercial Society
Berkshire Hathaway, a subsidiary of Buffett Buffett, announced the details of the shares in the fourth quarter of last year, re -cut TSMC 51.76 million shares, reduced its holdings of 86.19%, and cash out about 3.5 billion U.S. dollars.The influence, TSMC's stock price fell more than 3.67%on the 15th.In this short -term transaction, Berkshire Hathaway did not taste too much sweetness, but the short -term operation of the stock god highlights the three significance, which has a long -term impact on investors, Taiwan stocks and semiconductor industries, which is worthy of attention.
Berkshire Hathaway announced in November last year that in the third season, more than $ 4.1 billion was significantly increased by TSMC and jumped to the top five shareholders of TSMC in one fell swoop.Sell, one instead of long -term holding operations, it also puts pressure on TSMC's stock price.There are different interpretations, and most of them think that the stock god is not optimistic about the long -term operation of TSMC, and there are divergent opinions.
Buffett has always been known for its value -based investment operation theory. To understand the real reason why the company's company sells TSMC, it is necessary to analyze from Buffett's investment philosophy.In fact, the true meaning of value investment is not the length of the shares, but the long -term holding of stocks with productivity.In addition, value investment focuses on the two major elements of security margins and shareholding allocation. When the external environment begins to change, it is an important key to becoming the stock gods.
First of all, value investment focuses on Margin of Safety. In short, real value investment is to find a good stock that has a spread of the stock price and internal value.When a good company contains value greater than the stock price and the difference continues to expand, it has investment value. On the contrary, when the difference is reduced, it should be out of stock, which has nothing to do with the length of the shares.
The stock god has poor mastery of technology stocks, and the performance of IBM and HP in the past is not ideal.This time Berkshire Hathaway's cost of undertaking TSMC. If TSMC's average price of 485 yuan in the third quarter last year, the average price in the fourth quarter was calculated at a average price of 442 yuan.Analysis should be slightly profitable, but Berkshire Hathaway's reduction this time is too large, and it is expected that it will not increase TSMC in the short term.
After buying 606 million TSMC ADR in the third quarter of last year in the third quarter of last year, I immediately ushered in the third quarter method of TSMC (2022/10/13) announced that the capital expenditure was reduced by about 36 billion U.S. dollars.The market is looking at light wafer agents and profits.Investment professionals judged that Berkshire Hathaway was therefore reduced the value of TSMC. It is estimated that this is one of the reasons why the stock god sells TSMC in the fourth quarter.
In addition, value investment focuses on holding shares. According to the Berkshire Hathaway 13F report, the scale of the fund in the third and fourth quarters of last year continued to grow, reaching US $ 296 billion and 299 billion US dollars, respectively.However, Berkshire Hathaway's last quarter arbitrage operation was strong. It is estimated that it is related to the market value of Apple's shareholding of 7.3 billion yuan. The fund seems to have cash redemption pressure.In addition, the stock god also adjusted the investment allocation of production and technology stocks simultaneously. Obviously, in addition to Apple and BYD, there is still some gap in the grasp of technology stocks.
Berkshire Hathaway increased by 0.04%in the fourth quarter of last year, and the shareholding ratio increased to 38.9%, and bought building materials stock LP Building Solutions (LPX) and Paramun (but sold, but soldFor the four major targets, in addition to TSMC's $ 3.5 billion, the United States Hezhong Bank (USB), New York Mellon Bank and Activision Blizzard combined with a total of 4.4 billion US dollars.The focus of holding strategy.
In addition, after the news of Berkshire Hathaway's third quarter of last year, when the news of buying TSMC was exposed, the market value of TSMC accounted for a proportion of Taiwan stocks approaching 30 %.I am afraid that the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the US Certificate Period (SEC) to restrict the buying of large funds may also be one of the reasons why Berkshire Hathaway retreats in the fourth quarter.According to the US Stock Exchange period, once TSMC is included in the list of narrow base indexes, relevant US passive funds will be forced to sell over 30 % of the shares, and futures risk aversion will also be limited.People operate TSMC to produce many unfavorable variables.
TSMC's proportion of Taiwan stock markets is too large, which is the largest tightening curse in the stock price. If you want to solve this problem, the way of high dividends or equity split in the future can be resolved to resolve the risk of being included in the narrow -based index.TSMC's distribution strategy and operation trend are not feasible in the short term, so it affects the willingness to increase TSMC in the U.S. Department of the United States.
In summary, TSMC faces the three challenges of the stock price approaching internal value, the exit of foreign funds, and the high market value of the market value.For investors in depository stocks, it is necessary to examine its long -term reporting rate. For Taiwan stocks, TSMC is easily controlled by a specific legal person to control the weighted index.For the Taiwan industry chain, the semiconductor industry accounts for 20 % of Taiwan's GDP. How to reduce the risks generated by geopolitics is a topic that is worth thinking about.
