Bilahari Kausikan
During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union led two independent systems, and the connection between each other kept on the edge and minimum.At that time, there were only two options, including members of India and Singapore, including India and Singapore. Although we made choices when the national interest requirements were required, we sometimes pretended not to do so.
Although the prospect of mutual destruction allows the United States and Soviet to act with caution and ultimately ease the confrontation, the fundamental goal of the competition between the two countries is to allow one system to replace another system.As the former Soviet highest leader Khrushchev said to a group of Western ambassadors in 1956: "We will bury you." However, no one has really hoped or worried that communism would replace capitalism.
Regardless of the differences between the United States and China (these differences are huge), both countries are the most important and irreplaceable part of the single global system. It is unprecedented through a scale, density and complexity.The supply chain network is closely connected to each other in the world.The leadership of the United States was not challenged during the Cold War in the Cold War. This network was established and expanded during this time.Today, it has become an established fact, more lasting than the dominant position of the United States.This network and its results are what we call "globalization" and "interdependence".There was a period of interdependence among the main powers of competition, but there were unprecedented complicated supply chain networks like this. This is the difference between interdependence of the 21st century and early interdependence.
Both the United States and China are disturbed because interdependence exposes each other's weaknesses.Both countries tried to make up for weaknesses.The United States and allies are trying to enhance the toughness of critical areas through diversification to reduce their most important supply chain dependence on China; China tries to become more self -reliant in key technologies and attach more importance to promoting growth with domestic family consumption.
I think neither of them will be successful, at least not completely successful.These two strategies -diversification and self -reliance -knowing that it is difficult, and in any case, even if it works, it takes a long time to produce significant results.This system has partially differentiated and further differentiation, especially in technical fields with security impacts, such as semiconductors, Internet and big data.But I don't think that this system will split into two independent systems in various fields, as during the Cold War.For the two countries and other countries, the price is too high.
compete in a single system
No matter how concerns they are in China, even the closest allies in the United States will never cut off relations with China.Few Western companies will completely abandon the Chinese market.Most companies may adopt the "China+" strategy to decentralize risks, but this is a different problem.
As far as China is concerned, in the foreseeable future, no matter what kind of success it has achieved in R & D (we should not underestimate China), Beijing is putting the research and development results into practice.There is no other feasible choice.Domestic home consumption has confidence, as well as better social security networks to release family consumption needs.In view of the way of responding to the crown disease epidemic and the sudden abandonment of the chaotic situation caused by the zero -zero policy, market confidence will take a while to recover.It takes longer to build a sound social security network in a vast and unbalanced country in China.China proposed that "dual -cycle" is to acknowledge that it cannot be separated from the world.
Regardless of whether they like or not, the United States and China must accept the risks and vulnerability brought by each other.The two sides will start fierce competition, but they will be competitive in a single system of important components.The dynamics of competition is essentially different from the competition between the two systems of the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
The competition in a single system is to obtain a position that enables you to benefit from interdependence, reduce your weaknesses, and use your opponent's weaknesses.It refers to a tool that depends on interdependence as competition, rather than one system replace another system.
The best examples of these complex dynamics are high -end semiconductors. This is the worst shortcoming in China in enable technology.All the most critical nodes of the semiconductor supply chain are controlled by the United States and allies.But China accounts for about 40%of the global semiconductor market.It is impossible for you to completely cut off yourself and the company's company and 40%of the market without causing them seriously.This prompts the United States to take fine treatment policies instead of tough means, even with a surgery knife instead of ax.In fact, as of August 2022, most of the exemptions for Chinese technology export ban have been approved.
Therefore, the two major countries, as well as third parties such as India and Singapore are complicated, no longer or not.This is important because the complex situation increases our opportunities to play autonomy, provided that we have the wisdom of identifying opportunities and the flexibility and courage to seize the opportunity.
ask us to make a choice
Although the United States and China said that they do not require the third country to choose a border station, in fact, they really want us to make a choice.In particular, China has invested a lot of resources in influential operations, with the purpose of imposing the false binary choice to us.Therefore, I said at the beginning that although it is important not to take it lightly about uncertainty, we should also realize that these uncertainty is not unprecedented.We survived in the past turbulence and prosperity.The first premise of doing this again is to correct the mentality, calmly and maintain insight.
Sovereign countries have autonomy.This may be self -evident for a country like a mainland in India, because it never doubts its future in its own hands.But the same is true of small cities like us.Otherwise, a sovereign Singapore will not exist, and I will not stand here to talk to you.We were forced to be independent in 1965, as well as regional and international environments, which is much more dangerous than now.However, I am still here.
When determining how to exercise autonomy and protect and promote our interests in the US -China strategic competition, we must admit that there are serious problems in the United States and China.
The greatest concern for the United States is its domestic politics.To some extent, the system of all democratic countries is designed to be flawed. Because the power of excessive concentration is not trusted, only the sacrifice efficiency is limited.We euphemistically call this feature of the democratic political system as "checks and balances".Nevertheless, if anyone feels that the operation of American politics is poor, it often exceeds the absolute degree of absoluteness, and it is also exciting.But even so, we should take this problem correctly.
Imagine: a semi -concentrated, self -centered to narcissistic, self -centered, narcissistic, and scattered instigators to run for the president of the United States and win!It sounds familiar?I am not describing Trump, but the great American writer Sinclair Lewis's novel in 1935 cannot be the basic setting here. The plot of the novel is based on real life.Huey Long's political career adaptation.If it weren't for being assassinated in Lewis's novels, he would likely have a chance to become president.
I don't know what will happen in 2024.But even if Trump is defeated, or changes the idea of re -election,It will not be the last time we have experienced Trump's political phenomenon.The reason why I mentioned Lewis nearly 90 years ago was because Trump and everything he represented did not appear out of thin air and would not disappear suddenly.He represents the established characteristics of the United States of political culture, and US political scientist Richard Hofstadter refers to "The Paranoid Style in American Politics".
Source of American strength
We should not ignore these serious defects in the United States system.But we should not forget that despite political issues, the United States is still a major country. Those who have excessively paid attention to their periodic self -destruction, and those who have almost always lack of discipline and even those who underestimate the United States often regret it.On the day.
The fundamental source of the United States' strength, creativity and toughness never depends on what happened in Washington.More basic is the "Main Street" of its excellent universities, large enterprises, Wall Street, and 50 states.
The politics of the United States is not unimportant, but in my opinion, it is a major factor.Politics has never hindered the United States to do the right thing in the end, or at least doing things that meet their interests, just like Churchill had been ironic and after trying all other choices.
On the key issues of the Ukrainian war and China, democratic countries have a basic political consensus.On these issues, there must be many political quarrels -within the United States, between the United States and the European Union, and the European Union and NATO.Democratic countries are born to quarrel, but they are noisy for policy means, not the purpose.
We should not be dispersed by the United States of politics or over -respond to it.There is only one United States in the world. No matter what it has, we must work with it.Otherwise, it is impossible to form a checks and balance of China.We must cooperate with it in a new background.
With the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the survival of the United States no longer faces external threats like Soviet Union.Under the leadership of Putin, Russia is dangerous, but for economic and population reasons, its long -term development trajectory is down. His disaster misjudgment in Ukraine has accelerated this trend.
transforms to the offshore balance
China is a powerful opponent.However, competition in a single system does not involve survival, because the survival of this system is not threatened.China is the main beneficiary of the existing system. There is no strong motivation to overthrow it fundamentally, because China's economy is based on this system.Beijing may want to push the United States to the edge and replace the United States to occupy a central position, but this does not constitute a threat of survival.Even if China has the ability (I doubt this), it cannot replace the United States without completely destroying this system, and doing so is not in the interests of China.
Survival is neither threatened, and the United States will no longer have any reason to maintain international order and bear any heavy responsibility or pay any cost.After the Cold War ended, the previous governments of the United States most valued domestic affairs, and the Bush administration became an exception due to the September 11 incident.Since then, each president has tried to get rid of the Middle East to correct Bush's errors, but the results were very small until Bayeon finally cut the knife in 2021.
This obvious move, and the US government focuses on domestic affairs during the Cold War, and is often misunderstood as the United States is exiting the world stage.But more accurate understanding is that the United States is redefining its conditions for interaction with the world.This is nothing new.Half a century ago, the United States corrected the mistakes made in Vietnam, and no longer intervened directly, and played the role of "Off-Shore Balans" to maintain the stability of East Asia.Since then, this role has been the same.After the United States withdrew from Afghanistan, the change of similar characters to the offshore balanced person was also taking place in the Middle East.Its fifth fleet is still in Barin, and the Air Force is still in Qatar and the UAE.Sooner or later, it will also appear in Europe. Although it will be postponed by the Ukrainian war, it will not change the string.
The offshore balance is not shrinking, but requires allies, partners, and friends to do more to maintain balance.Obama's emphasis on multilateralism is a form of responsibility sharing.Trump put forward unilateral and rude transaction requirements.Biden is good at negotiation, but he will not just do so to please the alliances, partners and friends, but to determine what they are preparing to do something for the United States.
For those countries that meet his expectations, Biden has goes further than any predecessor of him, providing them with tools that can help the United States to advance common strategic goals.This is the purpose of establishing Australian and American three -sided security partnership (AUKUS).Biden's negotiation method is a more polite form of Trump's rough tradingism.If you do not meet expectations, Biden may still be polite, but you should not expect to be taken too seriously.Whether it is a guest or other ways, the nature of the US foreign policy will continue for a long time.This is the fact that the country of Asia, the Gulf, and even some European allies have just begun to understand.
The author is the former permanent secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore
This article is the author in the third session on January 23
Attar Bighari Vaja Pay commemorative lectures
The next part will publish tomorrow
Golden Shun Festival translation
Although it is important not to take it lightly for uncertainty, we should also realize that these uncertainty is not unprecedented.We survived in the past turbulence and prosperity.The first premise of doing this again is to correct the mentality, calmly and maintain insight.When we decide how to exercise autonomy and protect and promote our interests in strategic competition in the United States and China, we must admit that there are serious problems in the United States and China.
