Society: Mainland China Economy can save the market first to save the world

Source: Taiwan Economic Daily Society

This year's world economy outlook was not optimistic, but after the overall unsealed and successful peak of the epidemic in mainland China, many international institutions and people turned optimistic.The global economy between inflation and recession has a critical turning effect.

This expectation is in line with the facts.Mainland China is the largest consumer market in the world. The restoration of consumption after unblocking will help the growth of exports to China from various countries, and it will also help the smooth and restoration of the global industrial supply chain.After the normalization of China's economic activities, it will greatly increase the demand for oil, natural gas, copper, iron and commodities, and increase pressure on the rise in commodity prices, which is not conducive to inflation to cool down.However, in general, inflation has eased, and the most urgent crisis in front of it is the economic recession. Fortunately, China has been unpacking and delivered in time, so it is optimistic about the effect of boosting the effect.

China is the second largest economy in the world. When China ’s consumption power expands, it will naturally blow the global economy. After the chaos of the first quarter of this year, it is expected to help the world economy spring breeze.Flower, grow new buds.The first quarter of the United States, China, and the euro zone must be difficult to have, and then there may be a dawn of recovery.International Investment Bank Goldman Sachs is expected that once the domestic demand in the mainland is fully recovered, it can increase the global GDP of about 1%this year.This estimation may be too optimistic, but it is foreseeable that global economic growth has the opportunity to gently grow.

In recent years, the mainland economy has been attacked by the wind, which has driven the mainland's economic growth.The role of the role is more and more heavy. In 2021, the final consumption expenditure contributed 65.4%to GDP growth, but in 2022, due to the multi -point city and the epidemic, consumption and production were restricted.To 32.8%.After unblocking, the market has boosted the confidence in the economy to warn the economy. International financial institutions will mostly expect that mainland consumption data will grow in March in March. It is expected that the mainland's GDP growth forecast this year will be increased.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has updated the "World Economic Outlook" report at the end of last month to increase this year's global economic growth rate by 0.2%. At the same time, China's growth expectations this year will increase by 0.8%. The connection relationship is obvious.

The Chinese economy has been internally and foreign in recent years. Foreign factors are derived from international inflation, weakened economic prosperity, industrial chain movement, and technology card necks and trade under the leadership of the United States; internal negative factorIn particular, policies such as common prosperity, rectification of market order, Kuangzheng monopoly, and retirement of the country, no matter what the policy motivation, the combating investment confidence of private enterprises and weakening domestic and foreign enterprises is considerable.Now that the policy wind direction has turned, some overkill measures have been amended slightly. In addition, the epidemic is eased. It is expected that the economy is extremely close, but the haze that cover it is difficult to clear and will continue to work.

The relatively high savings rate of the general public will provide support for the consumption growth of the post -epidemic era, but the economy is restricted by the epidemic situation for three years, and the epidemic prevention policy is strictly controlled.Climbing, these negative factors are not conducive to boosting effective demand, and now it can provide growth momentum for the economy after soothing.

On the other hand, local governments are in a dilemma of real estate and huge quarantine costs, and they are mostly liabilities. It is difficult to invest in the past, and it is very unfavorable to expand domestic demand.Real estate policy is an urgent policy knot that needs to be solved. The capital chain of real estate development enterprises is mostly in the state of tension. The three financing channels of bonds, credit, and equity are not smooth. Although the recent policy is loosened, it has proposed ""16 Finance", etc., but the force is still insufficient, the development of the developer's funds has not been completely resolved, and the real estate cannot be restored to the engine that drives growth.

As for the platform economy industry, which is also injured due to policy suppression, although it is reproduced with the normalization of supervision, it still exists and the creative operation is limited.The country must be strongly supported by the economic growth of the platform, the provision of employment opportunities and international competition.Just like the overall economic dilemma of mainland China, only when the policy is completely tangled can we clear the veins. Only by being able to save themselves and achieve the work of rescue in China, can we have the power to save the world.