Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
At the end of November last year, the white paper movement broke out in China, which made the Chinese government forced to turn the "clear zero policy" that was originally adhered to, and suddenly turned 180 degrees and changed to completely open. As a result, the epidemic spread quickly in China.The speed of infection is almost the imagination of most people.Recently, there have been reports that in just two or three months, nearly 80 % of the number of people infected by China.Because the relevant information in China is completely unintelligible, outsiders cannot know the current situation, but a very simple indicator is that at the beginning of the Spring Festival at the beginning of the year, the positive ratio of the quarantine after returning to Taiwan was 20.5%.But now the positive ratio of returning to Taiwan is only 2.2%left, which fully reflects that the peak of China's infection has indeed passed.In fact, Chinese officials have not included crown diseases in quarantine infectious diseases on January 8th, which also indicates that the main impact of China's crown disease has indeed passed.
In the past three years, China has adopted a strict "zero -zero policy", which has a huge economic impact on China. Last year, China's economic growth rate was only 3.0%. This is the lowest after the reform and opening up in 1979.One year.After the beginning of the spring, the epidemic in China gradually dispersed. After the Chinese people's three -year epidemic suppression, the retaliated consumption has been demonstrated.Driven by domestic consumption, what is the economic outlook for mainland China this year?Can it really be fully recovered?Does other factors affect the economic trend?What impact will it have on Taiwan's economy?I believe this is the issue that everyone cares about.
After the epidemic dissipates, China's folk consumption should gradually appear, and of course it will drive economic growth. Therefore, the IMF has increased the forecast value of China's economic growth this year from 4.4%to 5.2%.In order to improve the goal to cater to the expectations of the central government, 29 of the 31 provinces announced at least 5%of the growth goals, and even some cities, such as Zhengzhou and Changsha, set the economic growth goals this year to 7%.
However, since the international economic environment is still quite unstable this year, there are several uncertain factors, which will still have a negative impact and worthy of attention.First of all, the Federal Federation has continued to raise interest rates to suppress inflation, which reduces US consumption and investment, which is likely to lead to economic recession and further adversely affect the global economy.Secondly, international inflation and major global countries raising interest rates will be worse than last year, and WTO estimates that global trade has shrunk this year, which is of course not good for China, which is highly dependent on exports.Third, although the retaliatory consumption after the epidemic can improve China's civilian consumption, the Chinese real estate market has experienced severe transaction atrophy and price decline in the past two years, and negative wealth effects may suppress people's consumption.Fourth, China has promoted the common prosperity related policies in the past two years, causing many foreign investment to leave and the willingness to invest in private investment, which has also greatly reduced economic momentum.Finally, in the long run, the United States has a restriction on many Chinese technology and technology in China, which has greatly reduced the speed of China's technological progress, which is very unfavorable to China's long -term economic growth.
In the past years, mainland China has been the largest export market in Taiwan. Whether the mainland's economy is prosperous, it has a great impact on Taiwan.Affected by global downturn this year, the global trade growth rate has declined sharply, and the exports of mainland China will also be affected. Therefore, it will further impact Taiwan's exports to the mainland; especially now that the global electronics industry is in a decline.Very unfavorable.On the other hand, 30 % of the products exported to the mainland in Taiwan have entered the mainland market. In the case of the current market recovery, the product of the product sold in mainland China may not be too good.
In short, this year's global prosperity and trade volume is not good, and cross -strait trade may be affected more seriously.If you are willing to abandon the considerations of political issues, the cross -strait governments can expand the open market, including open cross -strait flights, air points, and small three links;These open policies can not only slow down the hostile relationship between the two sides of the strait, but also help the economy on both sides of the strait. For the weak economy of the two sides of the strait, it is worthy of serious consideration of government departments.
