Financial perspective
After experiencing the downturn last year, the Chinese economy will be recovered this year, and the recovery may be better than expected.Regarding China's gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate this year, it is generally believed that only about 5%; as for China in the post -Qing zero era, it is often mentioned that "the return to normal roads is rugged."
However, the return to normal may not be so rugged.The rolling policies of the zero -sealing control policy of the crown disease in November and December last year, the rapid spread of the crown disease epidemic caused by the shortage of drugs and the full of hospitals.The Central Government of China estimates that nearly 37 million people across the country will get crown diseases in one day in late December last year.Local governments with the most populated provinces estimate that nearly 90%of residents have been infected with coronal virus and recovered in mid -January this year.
The worst situation has passed?
However, China seems to have reached the peak of this large -scale epidemic at the end of last year, which is good news for this year.Part of the reason is that the base effect is more conducive to this year's year -on -year growth.Another reason is that recovery is expected earlier and faster.The anecdote evidence of the main cities and the Metro traffic data show that this rebound is very fast.The passenger flow of some popular tourist destinations is close to the level of 2019.
domestic demand will be the key to this year, especially in real estate and consumption.These are the two largest backward areas last year.
Last year, Chinese household consumption decreased by 0.2%compared with the previous year, and the sales of new houses decreased by about 27%year -on -year.Repeated control is a key reason for their poor performance.At present, China is transitioning to the stage of coexistence with crown diseases, and there is no problem with closed control, which has eliminated a major obstacle for people's consumption and house purchase.
from savings to consumption
In fact, Chinese families also have consumption power.They savings more than last year than previous years.Last year, Chinese household deposits increased by more than 17 trillion yuan (RMB, about S $ 3.3 trillion, the same below), a record high; and home loans increased by only 3.7 trillion yuan, about half of the previous years.Net deposits increased by 1.1 trillion yuan, five times the increase in 2020, and 2020 was the previous record.
Due to concerns about inflation, Beijing is unlikely to issue cash to each family nationwide, but as long as it is not limited, Chinese families can increase the leverage of the balance sheet, increaseConsumption and borrowing.Over the past three years, retail sales have formed a high ratio of the formation of seal control.There are reasons to believe that retail sales will grow this year, unless another large -scale epidemic outbreaks.
However, confidence may still be a problem.The latest survey of the People's Bank of China in the fourth quarter of last year showed that 61.8%of families hoped to increase savings and reach a record high.At the same time, the ratio of family willingness to increase consumption is reduced to 22.8%.We believe that this situation may be reversed after people's habits coexist with crown diseases. As for what this reversal is, it is uncertain.
Optimistic about the real estate industry and government policies
In terms of real estate market, last year's new house sales fell to 1.15 billion square meters.From a structural perspective, this is an urgent need to adjust, because the annual sales of 1.5 billion square meters from 2019 to 2021 far exceed people's housing demand.A large part of them may be speculative, and it is an excessive prediction for future demand.
1.150 billion square meters close to our basic estimation of the average annual demand for new housing in 2020 to 2030 from 2020 to 2030.It is expected that more contraction will occur later in these 10 years, but this is no longer urgent.Due to extremely loose policies and very low expectations (most people are expected to have a lower number of digital declines), we believe that the emergence of upward accidents such as sales of less than 10%year -on -yearEssenceCities with large population inflow, low housing inventory, and fast recovery may lead the market to recover, and market sentiment may change rapidly.
The development of the political situation has also created favorable conditions.The new Prime Minister of the State Council of China is almost definitely Li Qiang. After the 20th National Congress, he became the No. 2 figure of the mainland government.Twenty years ago, he worked with Xi Jinping, President of China in Zhejiang Province, and was considered to be a close ally.He and the new State Council's leadership have a strong motivation to achieve better economic growth in the first year of taking office.They are very clear that companies and investors have been severely damaged last year, so they may want to boost the economy as soon as possible.
The Chinese government is working hard to provide more policy support, rather than waiting for the new government to be officially established in March.The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year is the most important annual meeting of China's economic policy. The tone of the meeting is very supportive of growth. It reiterates its support for private enterprises and promises to help platform companies lead development.
This is not just about talking, but that it has been put into action.The central bank has recently revealed that the rectification operation of Ant Group is close to the end; the Chinese online car giant Didi Chuxing has been removed for 18 months after being removed.It is expected to have more policies.
unfavorable factors
In the past two years, foreign demand is the biggest driving force for China's economic growth, but this year may become unfavorable factor.Since October last year, export growth has fallen to negative.As the needs of the United States and Europe have softened, China's goods exports may face year -on -year after six consecutive years.The threat of the supply chain out of China has not yet become a reality, but it may be long -lasting concerns.
Another long -term concern is the population issue.Last year, the first population in China has declined for more than 60 years.The number of newborn decreased from 10.6 million the previous year to 9.6 million, while the number of deaths increased to 10.4 million.The Director of the National Bureau of Statistics of China bluntly stated that this trend will not be reversed in the next 10 to 15 years.This will adversely affect the economy, especially in terms of housing, the already serious regional gap will only worsen.A large number of people in the population will also be affected by economic atrophy.
The author is the co -founder of Plenum Research
Original Lianlian Morning News
ThinkChina
Golden Shun Translation
The Chinese government is working hard to provide more policy support, rather than waiting for the new government to be officially established in March.The Central Economic Work Conference held in December last year is the most important annual meeting of China's economic policy. The tone of the meeting is very supportive of growth. It reiterates its support for private enterprises and promises to help platform companies lead development.
