Author: Tan Chuanyi

Source: Zhongshi News Network

The Global Times of the Mainland reported on the 4th that the Philippines will add 4 military bases for the use of the U.S. military, plus the original 5 military bases, with a total of 9 military bases.

Originally the United States had no military base in the South China Sea (South China). Former Philippine President Aquino III agreed to open 5 bases to the US military, but the successor Duteti did not execute it;Nine, it is clear that the efforts to increase the Chinese system will inevitably disrupted the situation that was not peaceful in the South China Sea.

The entropy value of the South China Sea is very high

"Entropy" (read "business")?Entropy (ENTROPY) is a physical quantity that measures the disorderly system.Let's take an example: Your room is always more and more chaotic, and we must keep cleaning to keep it clean.

The

Promotional rule tells us: as long as it is possible, as long as it is done infinitely, it will definitely happen; then, the chance of having an accident is far greater than the chance of no accident.It can be said that the so -called "entropy value" is a chance. As long as the number of repeated times is enough, the chance of accidents can approach 100%.

Therefore, crossing the road may be hit by a car, the train may be derailed, and the plane may fall. As long as you cross the road, take a train and airplane enough, you may find you sooner or later.To.Looking at the issue of the South China Sea with the concept of "entropy", we can simply conclude that as long as the U.S. military continues to enter and exit the South China Sea, the People's Liberation Army continues to counter US aircraft to close to reconnaissance and free shipping, the U.S. military and the PLA will fight sooner or later.

If you want to end this high entropy value, only the United States and China stop all military confrontation and military forces that no longer interact, can you reduce the entropy value.However, with the current opening of nine military bases in the Philippines to the US military, we are pessimistic that the future situation in the South China Sea will only worsen.

The importance of 9 bases

Prior to this, the U.S. military from Singapore to Japan for thousands of kilometers of channels without deploying military bases, and the most important and most dangerous Taiwan Straits and South China Sea are among them.Mainland demand.

Over the past 20 years, the US Marine Corps has almost lost its inherent skills: amphibious landing.Whether in Afghanistan or in the Iraqi battlefield, the work of the Marine Corps, like the Army's position, has become the younger brother of the Army. This is why the US Marine Corps began to be lightweight, miniaturized, and unmanned.

As an amphibious landing, in addition to the naval fleet, the Marine Corps requires military bases, especially in the face of the long coastline of mainland China and the vast South China Sea.

Lightweight, miniaturized, and unmanned Marine Corps can deploy and land in various places.The island forms an island jump tactics that carry weapons with small amphibious landing ships.

But now I jump to Dongsha Island but can't jump, because the U.S. military has no military base in the South China Sea and cannot accept the Marine Corps everywhere, as well as future navy unmanned ships (including unmanned navigators) and Air Force "agile combat"Agile Combat Employment (ACE).

The so-called ACE is to require the C-17 transport aircraft to carry the necessary maintenance equipment, fuel, ammunition and maintenance personnel, and with 4 F-22 fighters to form a small formation.Independent attacks and air support tasks within 72 hours.During the war, quickly transfers to the U.S. and allies' military or civil airports, and finally formed a decentralized combat base group with a "small amount of permanent large base+a large number of temporary cutting -edge small bases".

In this case, it is not difficult to understand that the Philippines opens nine military bases, which is indeed conducive to the U.S. military.In particular, Luzon Island on the north of the Philippines can connect Dongsha Island, and Balawwan is the South China Sea heart.In the future, if the United States can lease Vietnam's Jinlan Bay and Taiping Island in Singapore, it will improve the control of routes from Taiwan to Singapore.

The danger of the South China Sea is much higher than that of the Taiwan Strait

Many people think that the United States is "Ukraine" in Taiwan, making the "entropy value" of war in the Taiwan Strait high.But this may be more concerned, because the mainland has sufficient strategic determination and cautious thoughts, and the situation of fighting without breaking and being siege may be a stable normal, not war, because even the US military is difficult to intervene in the Taiwan Strait.It is more dangerous than the Taiwan Strait, but it is actually the South China Sea.

The reason why the South China Sea is in danger is that the military power of the United States and China has not yet reached a balanced, and the military balance is a key factor in the management of military risk management in the United States and China.

Although Xi Jinping and Obama signed two memorandums of mutual trust mechanism in September 2016: "major military operations mutual notification mechanism" and "norms of safety behavior of sea and air", it is obvious that these two memorandums cannot be possible.The use of US military force's use of US military force does not include nuclear weapons.

Since the lack of constraints in the South China Sea, the chances of accidental conflicts in the United States and China will have a high chance of conflict. For example, in December 2022, a PLA fighter aircraft and the US military reconnaissance aircraft passed by, only a few meters away;If the high -air balloon incident, there will only be more such incidents in the future. What if it happens again like a 2001 crash or balloon incident?

In order to avoid sea and air accidents, the best solution lies in the balance of military forces between the two sides. This equilibrium can be afraid of the United States and China, and they are willing to sit down and talk, not the constraints of the guidelines of the encounter.

At present, China is a competitor in the United States, and the military gap is rapidly narrowing.China has vowed to build the PLA into a world -class army in the middle of this century, and this process is now accelerating.The question is: What will happen before that?When military forces are not balanced, it may be the most dangerous time.

The easiest thing to do is to restore the dialogue between the United States and China.After Peto's visit to Taiwan, China canceled military dialogue.What should be based on the dialogue in the future?

It seems that unexpected conflicts are always an inevitable incident of the United States and China. To truly achieve the goal of the memorandum of the memorandum of two encounters, only the real "collision" incident can allow the United States and China to sit sitting.Talk down.This is the risk of high "entropy values" caused by nine military bases in the Philippines.

Researcher for the Taiwan International Strategy Society