From 2018, the mainstream society and elites' real cognition of China have formed a consensus of philosophy, qualitative patterns, and consensus on judgment.After the repeated adjustment, discussion, and optimization of the Chinese policy to the China and the field, the upper, middle, and lower three -line lines have been formed in recent years.
According to the news from the previous stage of China and the United States, US Secretary of State Brills will visit China in early February, aiming to follow up and implement the "" Bali of Bali, Indonesia, the Supreme Leader of China and the United States in November last year,Consensus of maintaining contact and constructive cooperation.Sino -US relations seem to be a little dark, but the just "spy balloon" (China is called airship) that has just occurred flew into the United States and was shot down by the United States. The domestic public opinion and people's sentiment were uproar. Blink had to postpone the visit to China.
The author wrote in Lianhe Zaobao last year and last year that "China and the United States have nothing to do with it" and "Sino -US relations have entered a state of shock."What is the current state of Sino -US relations and what will happen to the recent trend?In a word, it is obtained: still the mountains are still heavy.According to Brinken's own statement, Sino -US relations have recently eased, but the issue of Taiwan is still worthy of high vigilance.The Chinese statement is still limited to the deterioration of relations between China and the United States due to the misunderstanding of the United States for misunderstanding of China. The United States should cooperate with China rather than fight against Yunyun.
The actual state is that, for the reality, the US position is basically changing in the United States, and the Chinese side has recently made some posture adjustments.
Officials from various departments of China and the United States have recently increased their meetings and communication, and China has also made some new diplomatic adjustments. For example, in the end of last year, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs was transferred to the former deputy minister of Russia's affairs out of diplomatic positions.Later, recently, the spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Zhao was flattened to non -first -tier diplomatic positions.According to past records, the transfer of spokespersons for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of China is mostly promoted to develop in front -line diplomatic positions. Now it is relatively rare for arranges such as Zhao's spokesman.
Considering that the spokesman for Zhao's surname was that the name of the year was to start with US officials on the Internet, and later developed to the status of crown disease epidemic in the US Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, which was a spectacle to the United States.Drum noise.Now the Chinese side leaves him away, and the attitude of please and soothe the United States is obvious.Even Zhao's family couldn't help but speak on the Internet. It is known as "honor and disgrace". It seems to be a statement. In fact, it implies the grievances, and it should be "not shocked".In recent years, internationally mainstream public opinion and people of insight have continued to warn that the wolf diplomatic diplomacy, this way is not, because this is not diplomacy at all.To check the definition of diplomacy, it should be negotiation, reconciliation, communication, etiquette, euphemism, and compromise.
It is said that they defend these so -called "wolves" and believe that front -line personnel are only the specific executors of the policy, and they should not be a scapegoat or a black pot.Indeed, "the top is good, it must be very good", but to what extent "very much", there must be a grasp.If you just go into the magic field to advocate what "upper top" or "US military poison", and regardless of any rational judgment and evidence logic, you must be careful of "very much".At this time, no matter how much "honor and disgrace", it is helpless.
Although China ’s current saying of foreign diplomacy has slowed down and the body is soft, it is difficult to work for improving the overall situation of Sino -US relations.Remember that the United States is no longer aware of the mainland government and China in the United States in 1972 or 1979, or even in 2008, and even have a lot of ideal expectations.
Taiwan problem is irreversible and highly international
From 2018 to the present, the mainstream social and elites' real awareness of China has formed a consensus of philosophy, qualitative patterns, and consensus on judgment.The U.S. think tanks even believe that some of China's current foreign -related relaxation is just because the domestic epidemic situation has deteriorated suddenly and the pressure has increased sharply.
The Chinese policy of the United States and the field, after repeated adjustment, discussion, and optimization in recent years, it has formed a new model of the upper and middle -level three lines as the main.
offline or bottom lines to ensure that no armed conflicts occur in Taiwan, that is, there is no war in the Taiwan Strait.For this reason, even if the war in Russia's invasion of Ukraine a year ago, the United States did not relax its new defense layout in the Indo -Pacific region.At present, the US -Japan defense system focusing on the Taiwan Strait is basically in place. The US and other allies in the Indo -Pacific region are unprecedented in scale and level.
Taiwan issues have far exceeded the "internal affairs" positioning of Beijing. At present, it is irreversible and highly international, especially the direct intervention of the United States and Japan.As far as Taiwan itself is concerned, according to the latest report of the International Monetary Fund, last year, Taiwan's per capita national product (GDP) surpassed Japan for the first time, reaching 35,000 US dollars, becoming the leading East Asian leader.This is not a general GDP statistics, but a per capita GDP with substantial significance. The meaning behind it is the democratic rule of law, the vigorous development of the industry, and the happy life of the people.
In this regard, there are American Chinese public opinion sharply pointed out that in the place where the military is developed in Taiwan with force, how does it make sense?Instead of threatening Taiwan, it is better to save these military expenses and sponsor the poor areas of mainland China and children who need to go to school in the poverty -stricken areas of Mainland China.The situation in the Taiwan Strait is not too flat for a day, and Sino -US relations will not be effectively improved in one day.
The mid -line strategy of the United States to China is the so -called "fighting instead of" and "fighting without fighting" that the Bayeng government has continuously emphasized. The competition and the cooperation.This strategy, of course, is very different from the Chinese allegations that are "misjudging China in the United States and the responsibility for deteriorating Sino -US relations in the United States".The essence of the United States, the mid -line of China, is to curb the Soviet Union in the Cold War of the year.If the Chinese side shouts to be wronged, then you may wish to show some essential things to show the United States to prove that it is not the Soviet Union, but it is estimated that it is difficult to issue such a valid proof.
The launch of the US policy on the United States is the Great Policy Policy and Nakanti Development Orbit for China to return to "reform and opening up".In the past 10 years, China has frequently occurred in "going to democratic and rule of law", "going to the market economy", "going to private enterprises", "going to a civil society", "going to the universal value" and "loose speech".It is "going to reform and opening up", which is also equivalent to removing the foundation and consensus of China and the United States' political and economic development cooperation.Therefore, the United States now believes that without this online recovery, Sino -US relations can no longer return to normal and track.
Returning to reform and opening up is the prerequisite condition
And China ’s“ going to reform and opening up ”in recent years has already exceeded the changes in the US government and its policies.The formulation and direction of China policy.For example, taking the Hong Kong issue as an example, the "Hong Kong trap" has long been warned that many people and business people in the West may not be familiar with the mainland, but most of them are familiar with Hong Kong.Let the "one country, two systems" survive in Hong Kong and keep Hong Kong "in the Mainland", then Hong Kong is not Hong Kong. This principle can understand from Deng Xiaoping to Zhu Rongji.In this state of Hong Kong, talents and elites are constantly voting with their feet, which has damaged China's long -term development interests, which has also lost the international perspective of Hong Kong's openness, freedom, rule of law, and prosperity.
From the perspective of Biden government in the United States, it is impossible to maintain the overall situation of Sino -US relations and even make slow compromises in some aspects.However, the democratic system in the United States has made Biden unable to arbitrarily do it. It must be checked by the power of Congress and the face of public opinion and public sentiment.For example, the just -led American House of Representatives, which has just worked, is about to restart the issue of the traceability of the crown disease. The new Republican Speaker McCarthy also plans to visit Taiwan soon.In ChinaAt present, the super sensitive degree of the above two issues is estimated to have experienced stormy of Sino -US relations.
If it is under the policy of real reform and opening up, the above problems may not be a problem, or it is not difficult to solve.But at present these assumptions have no meaning, both China and the United States can only face reality.Now there is another spy -balloon incident, and Sino -US relations have fallen into a new low.This downturn is expected to last for a while.
(The author is an expert in international cultural strategy in the United States)
