In the middle of last month, the total population in China officially announced at the end of 2022 was 1.41.75 million, a decrease of 850,000 from the end of 2021.This is the first time that the population has declined since 1961.China was in the Great Famine in 1961, and China was in a period of epidemic in 2022.According to official data, China's death population was 10.41 million in 2022, an increase of about 270,000 from 2021.However, considering that on December 7 last year, after the release of the "New Ten Articles" of the crown disease, the crown disease epidemic occurred and caused the crowding of medical resources.
On January 21 this year, Wu Zunyou, chief expert of the Popular disease of the China Disease Control and Prevention Center, pointed out on Weibo that this wave of epidemic has caused about 80%of the people in the country to infect.In other words, about 1.1 billion people infected for more than a month, more than half of which should be infected by the end of December 2022.
From March 1st to May 31st last year, the mortality rate in the epidemic was about 0.094%.In the case of medical extrusion in all parts of China, and the cancellation of various seal control measures, the mortality rate should not be less than 0.094%.Preliminary estimates that there will be hundreds of thousands of people who die in December last year than the same period last year.It should be inferred that the reduction in population in 2022 or more serious than official data should be not only about 270,000 people mentioned above.
The population expert Yi Fuxian believes that the negative growth of the Chinese population has begun around 2018.However, according to China's official statistics, the population has maintained positive growth in 2018, and negative growth only appeared in 2022.It is generally believed that the negative population growth is a long -term and irreversible process, which has a profound impact on the economy, politics, and society of one country.However, in contemporary China, population statistics may not continue to grow negative, and it does not rule out that "recovery" is growing quickly.What is the reason if this happens?This article proposes the Chinese statistics law, which gives the answer.
Huang Yanpei, educators and social activists in the late Qing Dynasty and the early Republic of China, proposed the cycle law (it is also prosperous, and its death is suddenly indifferent). It is more precise that this should be the law of Chinese historical cycle;American history) does not conform to the law of this cycle.Based on the long -term attention of statistical issues in China, the author puts forward the Chinese statistics law: "Statistics with higher attention, low credibility."For example, China's GDP (GDP) data released by China has long received widespread attention at home and abroad, but the credibility is relatively low.
The reason why those who have a higher degree of attention have a low degree of credibility, mainly because of the high degree of social attention. From the perspective of specific officials, the political impact is greater, so they feel that it is necessary to adjustThe change to achieve specific intentions, including the manufacture of "political achievements", and control possible "adverse effects".Specific officials have the motivation to prevent important statistical data from the interests of the "inconsistent" region, the interests of the department, and the interests of small groups, and the personal interests of officials, and the statistical data of various related interests that are composed of "compliance" can be released.
On the other hand, if specific statistics are generally not watched, even if it may affect relevant interests, the motivation for specific officials to prevent the release is greatly reduced, and even the officials will not pay attention themselves.
In 2007, the then Secretary of the Liaoning Provincial Party Committee, and later served as the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang told the visit to the United States Ambassador to China. He prefers to track the province's economic trend through three indicators: the province's railway freight volume, electricity consumption and electricity consumption and power consumption and power consumption and power consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption and electricity consumption.Banks have put loans.In the future, these three indicators have attracted more and more attention, and British Economist Magazine also launched the "Keqiang Index."However, accompanied by the increase with the three indicators, the official data released by the official is gradually distorted.It can be considered that "statistical data with increased attention will decrease."This can be regarded as another law of Chinese statistics.
In 2022, the population data of China has received extensive attention from domestic and foreign public opinion due to confirming the negative growth of the population, and the population data will be the same in 2023.In this case, the data announced in January next year is more likely to be artificially adjusted -it does not even rule out "positive growth".If there are political needs, the Chinese population will be "positive" in 2023, and the official is completely capable of fabricating and publishing the data of the "positive growth" of the population -this year may have some factors that have a favorable population growth, but the high death data in January is not likeIt should be ignored.Even if the outside world has questions about the official statistics, it is difficult to know all the real situation -just as it cannot be determined which year the Chinese population starts to grow negatively.
