Wang Yuanfeng
In 2022, people thought that they could work normally, but looking forward to the new year, they found that the Financial Times described the annual vocabulary of 2022: multiple crisis (PolyCrisis), which is used to describe this year is still very suitableEssenceThe just -held Davos World Economic Forum (WeF) published the Global Risk Report 2023, pointing out that the new year is a year of multiple crises, and the risks are more interdependent and mutually damaged than ever.Known as the "Doctor Dr.", Nouriel Rlesini, a professor of Economics at the University of New York, believes that humans have entered the era when human beings need to cope with Megathreats!
Why are there such pessimistic expectations?There are economic crises in front of the economic crisis, the triple star crisis (climate crisis, biological diversity loss crisis, environmental crisis), and employment and social shocks brought about by new technologies such as artificial intelligence.Social division, as well as people's mental crisis and other aspects."I don't remember when ... I don't remember when ... I don't remember when ..."
In many crises, the economy is still the most concerned.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global economic growth will slow to 2.7%this year, and the World Bank forecasts 1.7%, except for the minimum growth rate of the decline in 2009 and 2020 since 1993.Generally speaking, if the global economic growth is less than 3%, it means that the world is at the edge of recession.The world economy has never had decades of decades. Can the governments of various countries use traditional macroeconomic regulation policies, loose currencies and fiscal policies?If you don't think deeply about the cause of the crisis, make structural adjustments, it may be difficult to get rid of the crisis.
The global economy is currently different from the past, because many developed economies, on the one hand, have high inflation, on the other hand, government, enterprises and residents' debt is high.The total debt of global private and public sector accounted for total domestic product (GDP) ratio increased from 200%in 1999 to 350%in 2021.In the United States, this ratio is 420%, which is higher than the Great Depression and after World War II.In this case, in order to curb inflation, the central bank needs to increase interest rates and cool down the economy. However, this will not only limit economic growth, but also make the government, enterprises and residents with higher debt rates in default risk.Therefore, the government wants to use fiscal policies to stimulate the economy.
So, can people only wait for it?This is not what I mean, but we have to reflect on this situation today.
Clear unqualified economic entities in the market
First of all, I am myth about constantly pursuing economic growth.The market economy is periodic, which is the essence of its essence.Through growth and decline, the economy has changed the economic structure that is unreasonable or adapted to development, eliminates unqualified economic entities in the market, and makes the economy rejuvenating.But now governments seem to have regarded the growth of the past few decades as the normal state, and the economy is a fuss, and it is necessary to regulate it.This leads to an important economic concept: Can human beings always promote economic growth?The economy cannot grow forever. This is common sense, but the overall economic growth in the past 200 years has been regarded as inevitable by humans.
Professor Robert Gordon, an economist at Northwestern University of the United States, proposed 250 years after the industrial revolution. The economic growth period for technological progress may be proven to be an exception to stagnation in history.He pointed out that the speed of technological progress has slowed down sharply, and although countries around the world are desperate to maintain a high level of growth, this is not the normal state of human society.Is the economy entering the long stagnation of Summes?This needs to be studied in depth, just like a person has spent the teenager's life and enters middle -aged and elderly, but you have to let him grow. Is this a rational approach?
Secondly, we must have a deeper understanding of the decline or crisis of the economy, not to simply engage in the economic regulation of anti -cycles.It is necessary to recognize why the crisis occurs to better respond.In 2013, Liu He, then the director of the Office of the Central Finance and Economics Leading Group, edited a comparative study of the two global crisis, which was to think about the mechanism of economic crisis.An important point of view of this book is: two major economic crises in history: the common background of the Great Depression in the 1930s and the 2008 Great Recession, both after the major technological revolution.
Technological innovation has caused prosperity, and the major technological revolution has greatly liberated productivity. This not only changes the production function and produces the innovative effect of "destruction", but also has a profound and far -reaching comparison of social structure, geopolitics, and national forces each time.Fundamental influence.If the adjustment of production relations is lagging behind the development of productivity after innovation, the upper -level building adjustment is lagging behind the economic foundation changes, and the potential risk will inevitably increase.The major technological revolution has caused great prosperity and will also cause the Great Depression, which is an important manifestation of the historical cycle rate.Therefore, after the industrial revolution, the human economy is driven by technological innovation, and when facing the economic crisis, it is also necessary to analyze the power technology innovation of economic development.
Over the past 20 years, it has been a few industrial revolutionary crossings and superposition periods in history.The third industrial revolution represented by computer and Internet technology has been fully carried out, and the information economy has restructured the economic layout; the fourth industrial revolution driven by technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and mobile Internet is emerging.The characteristics and mechanisms of economic development have undergone profound changes; while the use of photovoltaic solar energy, wind energy and other renewable energy sources, and coupled with intelligent technology, are leading to a new round of industrial revolution, making the traditional economy to low carbonization and green green.Transformation.Therefore, special economic systems, social systems, and even political and cultural systems that are closely related to the economy, whether there is any aspects of unsuitable technological innovation, whether it has changed with technological innovation, and has made corresponding changes.There is a deeper understanding of the law of development, and continuously explore new ways to solve problems according to the new situation.
In addition, the government cannot go to extremes for government intervention.Although Keynes, who believed in the government intervention in the last century, had a dispute between Hayek, which was determined by the market, people generally realized that the government's certain intervention in the economy was necessary.However, in the past years, there have been many things that have been separated from common sense in economic theory and government economic policies.
A very anti -common sense of economic theory and practice is that government debt can be issued infinitely.The Nobel Prize winner of Economics Paul Cruggman continues to advocate the so -called red line of government issuance of debt. It does not exist. The level of Japanese debt has long exceeded 200%of its GDP.In terms of financial policies, it is understandable to use a large amount of printed quantitative easing at a special economic crisis, and there are even unlimited quantitative easing.But using such special policies for a long time, the sequelae are very large.Extremely fiscal policies and financial policies are not all universal and cannot be used to promote economic development.
Now some economists and national governments, and many national central banks, extremely superstitious macro -control policies, and even more extreme so -called modern currency theory (MMT), that is, the government can not ignore the deficit to spend money becauseCome back through the central bank.From another perspective, some people now think that the government is universal and is a strong hand to regulate the market.
Reflection of unreasonable policy for structural reforms
On the other hand, some people believe that due to the development of Internet technology, the traditional business cycle no longer exists, and the common sense and theory of most past pasta are no longer valued.
Economy is ill and does not by letting the market eliminate unqualified economic entities and industries. Instead, the government is rescued by various policies like hormones. This will cause the pathogens of the marketThe industry continues to survive.At the same time, many financial and fiscal policies cannot be fairly distributed to market entities or individuals, which also leads to distortions of the market. The funds have not entered the real economy.Excessive income gap.
Facing the dim prospects of the economy, if you do not study the new motivation and mechanism, reflect on the problems caused by unreasonable policies, make structural reforms on the economy, or go along with the old road.Or is it crisis?The original concept of the economy is clear, and human beings will be more threatened.
The author is the vice chairman of the China Development Strategy Research Association
Director of Beijing Jiaotong University Carbon Zhonghe Technology and Strategy Research Center
