Source: Taiwan Industrial and Commercial Times Society
Fed (FED) was announced on February 1st as expected to raise interest rate hikes (0.25 percentage points), and then the press conference of Fed Chairman Powell did not make the market surprise.Currency decision -making meetings such as banks are also in line with expectations.Specifically, the policy of raising interest rates last year was nearing its end. After the United States increased the index interest rate again in March, the monetary policy was roughly determined.The greater probability will come out of the trajectory of "soft landing".
It is worthy of our special attention that the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has recently made public speeches and emphasized that the threat of inflation is about to pass.By the inflation crisis in the 1980s, Yellen believed that the current high price growth has not triggered the spiral increase in salary and prices, and the expectations of inflation have been stable.Based on this, the inflation rate of the United States and major industrial countries in the next few months will decline rapidly, and even return to the long -term target area of 2 % early.
Of course, the market is welcome to "from the eagle to the pigeon", and the pessimistic emotions have also become optimistic quickly.During the short -term speculation during the year, whether it is a cluster, destructive innovation, or Tesla and technology leading stocks, and the most popular electric vehicle -related industries, stock speculation will have a certain maximum limit.
Hong Kong and Chinese stocks, which have risen in November last year, Tesla, which has skyrocketed during the Lunar New Year, and semiconductor ultra -micro (AMD), NVIDIA, etc. The tone was a deep rebound. Last year, he fell more.The fierce, the greater the amplitude of the bullet, the faster the speed, but no matter how raised it is, there is still a big gap between the high points at the beginning of last year or the end of the previous year.
The cases that are happening in front of us can clearly see the threat of high interest rates to enterprises with excessive financial leverage and financial institutions.One is that during the epidemic, the "Bed Bath Beyond Inc (BBBY), the focus of the" Lost Stock ".The US dollar, then cut to the current $ 2.8, the stock price fluctuates extremely violently, and the company publicly warned on February 1 that "may have to ask the CHAPTER 11 bankruptcy please", because the cash turnover may be difficult, and it is US $ 1.5 billion (1.5 billionIn the debt, there is also a US $ 28 million gap between $ 28 million, and Morgan Chase Bank, which gives $ 550 million in credit quota, has included BBBY in the default account in January.
The second of the well -known cases is Adani Group, the richest man in India. This corporate group with a close relationship with the Modi regime and expanded during the epidemic period.Affairs faked, detonating the stock price of seven companies under the Indian company in India, the stock price plummeted, and the market value loss of just four trading days exceeded 92 billion U.S. dollars.
Ada Dani Group's liabilities disclosed more than $ 25 billion in debt. In addition, the unknown stock pledge immediately faced a huge pressure on bond replenishment.Although Adida successfully collected a huge amount of cash capital increase of $ 2.45 billion on January 31st, the company announced on February 1 that it had abandoned capital increase.Investment banks, including Credit Suiss Group Ag, announced that they would no longer accept Ada's corporate debt as mortgage.The Indian richest -richest -richest -richest company group in the rich country is in a financial crisis due to high leverage. Although it will not threaten the stability of the Indian financial system at present, the subsequent alarm has not been lifted, and it is determined that it will drag the economic growth of India this year.
We believe that in 2023, the global economic prospects will move forward under the trend of "restrictions on ceiling and iron plate support".The case of BBBY and ADANI is in the environment of high interest rates. Enterprises are facing greater capital turnover pressure, while financial institutions must make higher bad debt preparations; the FED is $ 95 billion monthly QT (shrinkage, quantitative tightening)It is also necessary to continue to take away the remaining funds from the market. In addition, the work of enterprises is still halfway. The downward pressure of corporate revenue and surplus is still large, and the burden of high interest rates aggravated the real estate market. These are obvious ceiling.
However, the consumption power of the rapid recovery after the solution of the clearing policy of the Chinese mainland has not only triggered the strong bomb of the China -Hong Kong stock market.The fourth quarter of 2022 GDP released by the euro zone defeated market expectations, and 0.1 % of the positive number of positive numbers increased. With the relatively strong performance of the European stock market, many leading companies even reached a signal of a record high, suggesting that the Russian and Ukraine War was about to end. EuropeEnterprises will obtain huge structural interests.The relatively optimistic prospects of China and Europe will provide a stable iron plate support in 2023.
