Pang Yan
Semiconductor is one of the most important industries in the world, affecting all aspects of our daily life.Semi -to -mobile airplanes are small as small as mobile phone appliances.In recent years, the semiconductor industry has become a hot spot for the global science and technology power, especially the United States and China.Since 2018, the United States has gradually strengthened restrictions on high-tech industries such as Chinese semiconductors, 5G and AI."(Chip 4) Block China and so on.On August 9 last year, US President Biden signed a chip and scientific bill to prohibit companies that have a "advanced technology" factories with "advanced technology" in China, which prohibit the acquisition of US federal funds. The ban is valid for 10 years.The U.S. Department of Commerce (BIS) announced on October 7 last year that the EXPORT Administration Regulation (EAR) banned high -end chips (Chinese chips) for sale of China, prohibited related technologies from flowing into China, and prohibited American technology technology from being prohibited from American technology technology.Talents (including American citizens, permanent residents holding green cards, or legal entities established in accordance with US laws) assisted China to "develop" or "produce" high -end chips without US permission.These various restrictions that have been introduced in 2018 span the governments governed by Trump and Bayeng for two different parties, which shows that this is the consensus of the two parties in the United States.
These restrictions, especially EAR's new regulations, have a great impact on China's semiconductor industry.EAR's new regulations have restricted full -process control from all aspects of semiconductor supply chain, related technical equipment to professional talents, and restrictions can be described as unprecedented.Its influence on China mainly includes: 1. The logical integrated circuit of the non -plane transistor structure of 16nm (nanim) or less than 14nm in the new regulations, the NAND flash memory chip of 128 layers and more layers, and the half distance of half room.The DRAM memory chip with more than 18nm is limited.This directly leads to related companies in China, such as the Yangtze River Storage, Changxin Storage, SMIC, etc., which can no longer import semiconductor equipment that fall into the US delineation restrictions.In the short term, it is difficult for these equipment to seek alternatives, which will greatly affect the production and research and development of mainland semiconductor companies in mainland China, and even face the risk of suspension of production and losing the market.
2. The new regulations announced that some advanced computing chips and related computer (computer) products are added to the business control list (CCL), including advanced AI chips in the civilian field and high -performance CPUs or GPU required by supercomputersCalculate chips and so on.This makes China's imported high -performance AI chips blocked, which will directly hinder China's development of AI technology and Internet industry.At the same time, China's supercomputers research and development have also been greatly affected, and these supercomputers are often very critical in biological engineering and aerospace.
Three, the new regulations also strictly restrict the sought by overseas founding manufacturers of FABLESS chip design manufacturers for overseas foundries.As long as the design and supply chain links involve American technology, or the production equipment involves the United States and components, it will be restricted by the ban.This means that even if Chinese chip companies can design high -performance chips, they cannot complete the flow, let alone output.
Fourth, in the Chinese semiconductor industry, many founders of China's leading semiconductor equipment and material companies are Chinese American. Many corporate executives and professional and technical talents also hold American passports or green cards.The restrictions on the work of EAR's new regulations will cause huge damage to the talent team and technological development of the Chinese semiconductor industry, which will have a great impact on the production and technology development process.
Five, EAR's new regulations for the development of semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related projects in mainland China, the United States has also added a new license requirements: the development and manufacturing related semiconductor equipment required for semiconductor equipment manufacturers in mainland ChinaFor components, if US suppliers want to export, they need to obtain permits from the US Department of Commerce.This will also greatly limit the development and production progress of semiconductor equipment in mainland China.
These restrictions are a double -edged sword. While hitting the Chinese semiconductor industry, it also brought a huge impact on the semiconductor industry in the United States and other countries.China is the world's largest semiconductor chip sales market, accounting for about one -third of global sales.The sales restrictions on China's high -end chips will greatly affect the revenue and profits of the United States' leading chip companies such as Intel, AMD, and NVIDA. In the long run, it may affect their new technology research and development process.At the same time, the impact of SEMICONDUCTOR ManuoFacturing Equipment (SME) manufacturers is also very huge because the sales share in the Chinese market is very important for most SME equipment companies.For example, American SME manufacturers leading sheep application materials company, Lam Research, and KLA all have about 30%of sales from China.In addition, according to the first quarter of the 2022 financial report announced by the Global Lights Head -Leader's ASML Company, the market share from mainland China accounted for 34%.
Under the influence of a series of measures such as the list of Chinese military compounds, chip bills, and EAR new regulations in the United States, the expansion and development logic of international semiconductor companies will have to consider more political factors, followed by market, efficiency and costIt is foreseeable that the traditional market -oriented competition model of semiconductor will change.Facing the new competition model, countries have also proposed their own semiconductor strategy, such as "K-Semiconductor Strategy" in May 2021, "Semiconductor and Digital Industry Development Strategy" launched in June 2021, and the European Union in 2022European semiconductor chip bill passed in November.
Zhang Zhongmou, the founder of the World Giant TSMC, founder of the foundry Wile Factory, said on December 6 last year to attend the first machine in the Arizona State Factory to enter the factory ceremony that geopolitics has greatly changed the ecosystem of chip manufacturers.: "Globalization is almost dead, and free trade is almost dead. Many people still want them to come back, but I don't think they will come back." All this seems to mean that the world semiconductor industry will be from global, cooperative, regional, and regional, andCompetitive development.
However, the semiconductor industry is highly complicated and is a veritable globalized ecosystem.According to the research and analysis of Essezzhe, every link in the semiconductor value chain, with an average of 25 countries directly participating in the operation of the supply chain and 23 countries with market support.There are more than 70 times.Driven by globalization over the past few decades, each semiconductor power has established its own core competitive advantages, such as chip design and semiconductor equipment in the United States, semiconductor materials and equipment parts, the Netherlands of the Netherlands, raw materials and Chinese raw materials and Chinese materials and ChinaPackaging test and so on.No country can completely establish a complete semiconductor ecosystem.
Under the vibosity of geopolitical competition between China and the United States, whether the globalization of the semiconductor industry will really die, to a large extent depends on third -party semiconductors outside China and the United States, such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea.Now, the relations of various countries are in a more subtle stage. Although it seems that the prospects are not optimistic, the hope of globalization has not completely extinguished.After all, globalization is still the best choice for the optimization of the entire world's resources and the stability of the long -term geopolitics.
The author is a professor at the National University of Business School of Singapore
Co -Director of Commercial Big Data Analysis Center
The English version of this article is published in ThinkChina:
How Geopolitics Will DrasTICALLY Change Chip Manufacturers' Ecosystem
No country can completely establish a complete semiconductor ecosystem independently.Under the heat of geopolitical competition between China and the United States, whether the globalization of the semiconductor industry will really die, to a large extent on third -party semiconductor forces outside China and the United States, such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea.
