The United States is worried about sending arms experts to Ukraine: Is there enough am

Source: Voice of the United States

Author: Sun Cheng

U.S. President Biden on Wednesday (January 25) announced that it provided Ukraine with 31 M1 M1 M1 Erbrams main battle tanks, which is considered another major steps for the United States to provide a large number of arms assistance to Ukraine.Plastic war pattern.

"Minister Austin suggested that this step is because we want to strengthen Ukraine's ability to defend its territory and achieve its strategic goals." President Bayeng said.

Under the strong assistance of the United States, Ukraine has repeatedly suffered repeatedly in Russia in the past year.However, the largest armed conflict since the World War II was also rapidly emptying the US military fire reserves.Analysts are concerned that in the case of conflict between the Taiwan Strait, whether the United States can ensure the supply of combat reserve supply in the two major battlefields of Eurasia with the current status of the U.S. ammunition reserve and the national defense industry system.

A report from the Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center suggests that the overall goal of the United States should be to improve the required ammunition capacity, so that the United States can win at least "a large -scale war zone war -if it is not two games,"

The consumption of Wu Zhan ammunition is beyond expected

Although the United States has already expected that the Ukraine will consume a lot of military flames, and has adopted a variety of measures such as restarting the lease bill specified in World War II to improve the level of ammunition for ammunition, but a series of recent signs show that the consumption of the Black War consumption of ammunition is fastIt may be far beyond people's expectations.

NATO Secretary -General Stoltenberg said on Friday that it is important to provide new weapons to Kiev, but the point is to provide ammunition for it."We also need to remember that we not only need to pay attention to the new (weapon) platform, but also to ensure that all existing platforms can play their due role, which means that we need ammunition." He was right during the assistance of Ukraine International Conferences during the assistance of Ukraine International ConferenceReuters said.

According to the data of The Forum on the Arms Trade, as of January 6 last year, the United States has provided Ukraine with more than 1.3 million cannonballs, exceeding 108 million small weapons ammunition, 5200 pieces of 5,200 piecesThe accurate 155mm artillery shells, 1600 thorns missiles (Stinger) and 8500 javelin (Javelin), 2,500 drag missiles (Tow).This does not include other types of weapons ammunition and weapons and ammunition provided by NATO allies such as Britain and Germany.

Even so, the Ukraine sometimes suffers from insufficient ammunition.A recent report by the media, which focuses on the news of Ukra, said that Ukrainian artillery urgently needs more ammunition."We need every 122mm artillery and ammunition in anywhere in the world," said Ukraine artillery."In this way, we can continue to help our infantry. We do our best, but don't have many shells."

In order to make the Black War from becoming a rice -free cook, the United States has begun to call ammunition from other countries.The New York Times quoted news from the United States and Israeli officials, which did not disclose their names last week, saying that the Pentagon is using the United States to store in Israel, which was originally a large number of little -known reserves to cope with the conflict between the Middle East.In addition, although North Korea's threats have no signs of decrease, the United States is also raising ammunition from South Korea. The South Korean Ministry of Defense has confirmed that South Korea has discussed ammunition exports with the United States on the premise of U.S. military use.

A recent study by Washington Think Tank Strategy and International Research Center (CSIS) pointed out that it is assuming that Ukraine fires 143,000 rounds a month, which is about 4800 rounds per day, while the US output is only 3250 rounds per month."This may be a crisis," the report said.

The report said that the United States has provided more than 1 million 155mm artillery shells to Ukra, and the current US annual productivity is only 93,000.Because the U.S. military needs such artillery shells, the United States is unable to restore the inventory level.

Mark Canncian, a senior consultant of the International Security Project of Strategy and International Research Center, said in an interview with VOA in the United States that it is not enough to call only from Israel and South Korea.Store ammunition stored in other countries."For example, we also have a lot in Qatar and Kuwait. If we start to use some of them, I will not be surprised."

The current situation of the American ammunition industry is worrying

The United States has the world's most powerful military enterprises, such as Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Thor, and GM, but there are still many worrying hidden dangers for the entire military industry.

A recent report by the Washington Think Tank Traditional Foundation said that the army owned by the Army was built during World War II and was responsible for providing the entire US military with small ammunition and artillery arsenal technology backward technology, and urgently needed investment to update technical equipment.

This report published in late December last year, "The Inventory Inventory of the Quickly Consumed Emperor Highlights the Policy, needs to be adjusted urgently."Efficiency is endangered. "At the same time, the report said that the demand for ammunition for these factories is the highest in decades.

In addition, a report of the Pentagon last year also made a worry -free assessment of the lack of competitiveness in the American ammunition manufacturing industry from another angle.The report says that American missiles and Munitions have 30 main contractors 30 years ago, but now there are only seven, the industry's competition has fallen seriously, and several companies have almost no competitors.

The report said that in the past three years, tactical missile suppliers have been reduced from 13 to three, fixed -wing aircraft suppliers have been reduced from eight to three, and satellite suppliers have fallen from eight to four."Today, 90%of missiles come from three sources."

High -speed weapons are one of the hot -spatial weapons projects in the United States and China, but the report said that there is currently only one major contractor in this weapon field.

Based on the nature and scale of potential conflicts, every military in the United States has its own confidential weapons and ammunition planning. The traditional foundation entitled "The ammunition inventory quickly consumes the policy to highlight the policy".A long -lasting war, or is it only ready to fight a war with a short duration and limited range?Is the current plan considering such a fact that if the U.S. military uses a certain weapon and ammunition, it may take years for the national defense industry to be supplemented by several months?

The report said that the facts of Ukraine's several months of battles consumed such a large number of American thorns and javelin missiles that the Ministry of Defense's plans and reserves established based on these plans are not enough.

At a recent seminar held by the Naval Association, General Daryl Caudle, commander of the Navy fleet, publicly expressed dissatisfaction with the status quo of the defense industry.

"I'm very annoyed," Costall said."Because this is important to win. In my opinion, and for people wearing military uniforms in the room, this is the most important, and I can't do this without ampulum." He said.

Perhaps the lack of production capacity of the ammunition industry system may be the decline of the entire manufacturing industry in the United States.

During World War II, with the strong foundation of manufacturing, the United States not only fought its own army in the two major theater of Europe and Asia, but also supported allies. It was a veritable "democratic arsenal factory".Taking the shipbuilding industry as an example, the United States laid off the amazing 122 aircraft carriers in the past few years of World War II.At that time, there were four large shipyards in Baltimore, one of the shipbuilding bases. Among them, a shipyard of Berlie Heng-Felfield not only created a large number of amphibious landing ships such as a large number of naval ships, but also batched the "free wheel" of 10,000 tons of water to become modern.The miracle of large -scale production of industrialization, but now all the shipyards in the city have closed down.

Now there are only four military shipyards in the United States. A large number of maintenance and maintenance of the naval fleet must rely on private commercial shipyards, and it is unpredictable during a peaceful period.

A report from the "U.S. Government Accountability" pointed out in February this year that most submarines are currently unable to complete maintenance on time.In addition, another government department "Capital Budget Office (CBO)" pointed out that lack of technical workers is a major problem in the navy.This non -party department that provides professional analysis for the two houses of Congress provides professional analysis in a report in a report in a report last year that the Navy will face the problem of maintenance delays in the next 30 years.

Insufficient ammunition reserves in the Indo -Pacific Theater?

The Ukraine War, which has been nearly one year, still has no signs of ending, and Putin seems to have determined to fight for a long time.In a speech last year, he said that in the 18th century, Peter Gas opened his territory for 21 years, and the heavy responsibility of history now "has also fallen on our shoulders."

For the situation in the Taiwan Strait, the potential key issue is: Will the Black War consume U.S. military resources too much, which will affect the American ammunition and reserve capabilities in Asia?

The Washington Post posted a comment last week that with the rapid growth of Chinese military forces, Washington provided a large number of weapons to Ukraine, and the United States has not had much hard power to dominate.The comment said: "Now, the benefits of China are likely to be in a protracted war in Europe, exhausting the US military fire, and making the defense industry stretched."

While providing a large number of military aid to Ukraine, the Bayeng government has also increased its efforts to sell military sales, but when many military backbone Taiwan can really get it, it is still difficult to determine.The Ukrainian Navy's anti -ship missile in the United States made it difficult for Russia's Black Sea Fleet to launch amphibious operations against ports such as Odessa. The US military sales of Taiwan also included this anti -ship missile system.

"Taiwan should receive 400 fish fork missiles from the United States in the next few years." Said Matthew Cancian, senior researcher at the School of War of the US Navy."One thing that the United States should care about is whether providing fish forks to Ukraine will affect the timetable for transporting these fish forks to Taiwan, because in our military chess deduction, the use of these fish fork missiles is very important for defending Taiwan's invasion."

Over the years, US military experts have repeatedly deduced military chess on the military attack on Mainland China. Many of the conclusions are the US victory, but these hypothesis are usually not a long -term war.

Matthew Cantan and others recently defined the war period as a typical month.He said to VOA: "The United States has used the most advanced missile in the United States within three days, and then we must start using less advanced missiles."

The report of the Think Tank Strategy and the International Research Center also pointed out that the results of a series of wings chess showed that the Taiwan Strait conflict was less than a week, and some ammunition in the United States was almost left, including long -range and precise guidance missiles.

The shortage of ammunition is also a problem faced by the United Kingdom, France, Australia and other American allies.A research report in November last year was: "If we fall into war, our ammunition will not be supported for a week."

The United States has developed a large number of advanced weapons in the past few decades. In the Indo -Pacific region, it is preferred to include equipment resources including remote precision strike weapons.It is said that the disadvantage of advanced smart missiles is that it is very expensive, and even the United States cannot afford too much.

"If you think (the Taiwan Strait military conflict) will only last for one or two weeks, and then mainland China will give up. Well, you have enough precision weapons. But if the conflict continues for more than two weeks, you will exhaust these these theseWeapon. "

Despite all kinds of worrying signs, officials of the Pentagon still have confidence in the US military's military inventory ability.

"We believe that as long as Ukraine needs, we have the ability to continue to support Ukraine," Patrick Ryder, a spokesman for the Ministry of Defense and Performing Persons General Patrick Ryder, said recently."And we believe that we can continue to maintain the level of combat reserve for defending our country."

Mark Cantanen, an expert on military issues of Strategic and International Research Center, said that in the past four or five years, in view of the potential demand that might have started war with China, the US Department of Defense has been building ammunition reserves.The department recognizes how much reserves need such a war. Therefore, Congress has authorized to expand weapons production, especially ammunition production.

"People are increasingly aware of it, especially because of the Ukrainian war, how many weapons and ammunition do you need to fight with a commonly matched competitor.What will be needed? "

Mark Cantan also pointed out that most weapons provided by the United States to Ukraine will not conflict with the weapons needed by the Taiwan Strait War, because the conflict of Ukraine is mainly ground conflict, and the potential battle with mainland China is the air force and the air force andnavy.He said: "Although there will be some overlap, most of us use different weapons and ammunition in most cases."