Deng Qingbo
The Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Republican House of Representatives McCord warned that once Ukraine fell, mainland China would invade Taiwan. Therefore, it is necessary to persuade the importance of some members of the Republican Party to continue to assist Ukraine.In Taiwan, some people also believe that the United States has seized weapons to Taiwan in order to accelerate Taiwan's "Ukraine".
In fact, Taiwan and Ukraine are not comparable, and Taiwan cannot "Ukraine".The easiest reason is that in the Russian and Ukraine War, all parties in the Russia and Ukraine are actually "affordable"; in the situation of the Taiwan Strait, all parties will "lose".
At present, the Ukrainian war is still fierce, and all parties seem to ride tigers and do not want to retreat.But in fact, all parties do not have no way to retreat, and they can be said to lose.For example, Russia, some analysis believes that once the Russian army is defeated, Putin's status is not guaranteed and may be liquidated.In fact, after the occupation of part of the land and the hit Ukraine, Putin could always announce that it had punished Ukraine, cracking down on anti -Russian forces in Ukraine, achieved victory, and retreated to retreat.Because Russia has not been severely damaged and has been harvested, Putin will not do so that Russia will collapse completely.
Besides the United States and Europe.Of course, the United States is in the best position in this battle, and it can sustainable military aid Ukraine; retreat can be drawn at any time. As long as Ukraine is incomplete into the hands of the Russian army, the United States can also support it to continue to resist Russia, so as not to prestige.sweep the floor.In this battle, the United States can be said to have the problem of only a profit, and there is no problem with suffering.Although the European Union paid a huge price in economics, objectively, the intensification of the contradictions between Russia and Ukraine did build a stronger "anti -Russian wall" for the EU countries with Ukraine.As for the defeat.
The worst is of course Ukraine, especially the Ukrainian people.However, even the Ukrainian President Zeisky government is not unable to lose, because the war has continued to this day, and many people have been imagined.Zelei officially established the image of weak victory and counterattack aggression to obtain control over the Ukrainian political situation.After all, according to the previous political situation of Ukraine, if the peaceful era, the Zelezzky government that rely on the stage may be changed at any time.
In other words, in addition to the heavy losses of Ukraine and Ukraine and the Russian people, all parties related to the Russia -Ukraine War have room for compromise and concessions at any time.The war is difficult to end in the short term, but the situation can be cooled at any time, and it is always in a controllable range.
On the other hand, the situation is completely different.Once the war broke out, any participant will never lose without retreat.
First of all, as far as mainland China is concerned, it is not only related to national dignity and historical responsibilities to prevent Taiwan ’s independence and prevent the division of the country.And crisis, so it is related to the future fate of China, so it is impossible to retreat, and you must not admit defeat.
As far as the United States is concerned, it is not involved in the war of the Taiwan Strait. Once it is involved, it will also gamble on its own national movement, and you can no longer lose.If the United States is unable to prevent mainland China from winning Taiwan, it will not only lose the first island chain of China, but also enable the authority to sweep the ground and face more challenges in the world.As the US think tank is deduced recently, the U.S. military will also pay a lot of costs, and hegemony will also be hit hard.
As for American allies such as South Korea and Japan, if they are involved in the Taiwan Strait conflict, they will also suffer more losses like the United States.At the same time, once the war opened, the politicians in Taiwan had no retreat, and because the defeat would inevitably be strictly liquidated, so they could not lose.
It can be seen that once the Taiwan Strait War is opened, all parties will enter the contest of life and death because they cannot afford to lose.The United States cannot maintain its superficialness as it is on the surface of the Russia and Ukraine battlefield. It either accepts the facts of China's unity or gamble on the fate of hegemony to fight with China.
Not to mention that the United Nations and most countries have admitted or accepted the "one China" to varying degrees, and it is impossible to obtain moral advantages like supporting Ukraine to resist Russia.The geographical characteristics of Taiwan as the island are also very different from the Ukraine's environment. After the war is opened, Taiwan cannot obtain continuous external military aid like Ukraine, so it is impossible to play with themselves as the battlefield and continue to consume another Ukrainian country.Essence
Attempts to turn Taiwan into another Ukrainian politician should completely lose this kind of delusion to avoid unimaginable disasters.The Bayeon government in the United States should especially prevent the situation from falling into a malicious cycle and eventually out of control.The peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait and the peaceful development of cross -strait relations in accordance with the fundamental interests of cross -strait and countries in the region must be continuously maintained.
The author is Chinese current affairs commentator
Once the Taiwan Strait War is opened, all parties will enter the contest of life and death because they cannot afford to lose.The United States cannot maintain its superficialness as it is on the surface of the Russia and Ukraine battlefield. It either accepts the facts of China's unity or gamble on the fate of hegemony to fight with China.
