Singers: Sing Tao Daily
Sing Tao Daily News
One yuan after the end, Vientiane updates.Looking back at the year of the tiger, the Hang Seng Index has been in the roller coaster, picking up the step down, and it has fallen by 30 %. Until the end of the year, the mainland relaxed epidemic prevention measures and comprehensive switches, which stimulated the Hang Seng Index to rebound rapidly.But about 10 % and a half throughout the year.Many people hope that the customs clearance effect will make the stock market and property market regain vitality in the Year of the Rabbit, and there will be a bull market Dayangchun.Customs clearance makes the market overflowing, but the periphery and Hong Kong are still full of uncertain factors. The stock market is inevitable that the property market is still turning. Investors still have to effectively enter the spirit of the three caves of the rabbit and keep vigilant at all times.
Tiger goes to rabbits. There are big banks as predicting the market conditions of the number of feng shui surgery as in previous years, referring to the lack of gold and soil in the five elements of the year of the Rabbit.Continuing the rise of the year of the tiger, falling down in the end of summer, rebounding at the end of the year, and rising slightly; as for the real estate property market, the performance is mediocre.
The risk of US debt defaults may become a black swan
Feng Shui forecast market conditions are only for reference, and investors still need to consider basic factors in entering the market.The customs clearance effect really reversed the market atmosphere of the year of the tiger, causing the stock market to stop falling back, and the property market stabilized. The financial industry refers to the last 13 trading days of the year of the tiger. Foreign capital has continued to buy A shares through the Hong Kong Stock Connect.More than 1,12.5 billion yuan, reflecting funds to be optimistic about the A -share market outlook, and made Hong Kong stocks also see a high line.As for the real estate agent, the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes slowed down. After the customs clearance, the mainland passengers came back. In addition, the Hong Kong government introduced the introduction of a specialized plan. The worst moment of the property market has passed.
The clearance effect is still strongly promoting the stock market in the short term, but after nearly three months of a rapid rebound, the HSI has risen by 50 % from the low position.At 6.5, two percent of the inflation target set with the Federal Reserve is still a distance. I believe that after the interest of the interest, it will run rampant for a long time, and this year may not have conditions to reduce interest rates.High -interest continues to be disadvantaged in the stock market, the cost of borrowing of enterprises is high, coupled with the economic slowdown, the risk of recession is heating up. Many American science and enterprises have layoffs, and even Microsoft and Google have announced that they have layoffs of 10,000 and 12,000 people, which reflects the reflection, reflectingEnterprises are not optimistic about the market outlook.Once the US economy declines, whether it is slight or depth, it will have a impact on the global stock market.
In addition, the U.S. government spending recently hit the upper limit of $ 314 billion in debt. The Ministry of Finance took special measures to avoid breach of contract, hoping to strive for time to increase the upper limit of Congress.However, the Republican Party of the House of Representatives resolutely demanded reduction of federal government expenses.In the past, the two parties have repeatedly argued the debt limits to play the "timid ghost". See who to make concessions first, every time there is no danger, but this time the Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy is the disadvantaged speaker, and it is difficult to convince the Republican right right camp to concession, plus the addition of the concession, plusPresident Biden will not give up too early to seek re -election, increasing the difficulty of negotiation, making the risk of breach of contract at any time into a black swan in the financial market at any time.
As for the number of mainland customers and specialists who come to Hong Kong after the customs clearance, the demand for buildings has increased, so it is too early to assert that the property market will turn.First of all, after coming to Hong Kong, you must solve the housing problem, but it does not mean that you must buy a building. You can rent a building. Because they come to Hong Kong to develop an opportunity, it is still unknown whether they can adapt to the rhythm of the rapid life of Hong Kong.After all, buying a building involves tens of millions of yuan, and it also pays a spicy tax equivalent to 30 % of property prices. Even if it becomes a permanent citizen to apply for tax refund after seven years, it is not cost -effective to be tied for funds.In addition, in order to stabilize the economy, the mainland is introducing the measures to rescue the property market one after another. It not only revokes the purchase restriction order, but also relaxes the mortgage number. There are other preferential benefits. The causes of home property in the mainland are significantly larger than Hong Kong.
The price of the newly supply is pressured by one second -hand property
More importantly, this year's private buildings have a lot of supply, but the property prices are pressured.Because the property market in the year of the tiger was attacked by the epidemic, interest rate hikes, and the unfavorable factor of Hong Kong stocks, the developer launching a new market after the launch of the launch of the rabbit can be supplied by as many as 119 potential new markets, involving more than 40,000 units.Coupled with the tail of the cargo, the supply is as many as 79,000.In order to seek promotional units, developers may increase their discounts, low market prices have opened, and the competition of primary and second -hand buildings has made it difficult for property prices to have a lot of room for.
The market atmosphere of the Year of the Rabbit is obviously better than the Year of the Tiger. Although the funds flow to Asia, the surroundings are unclear, and the Hong Kong stock market and the property market are difficult to be alone.When you smell the market, you will not be able to avoid risks.
