Liao Jianyu

On January 10 this year, Indonesia's largest party in Indonesia (PDIP) held a 50th anniversary party celebration. Everyone hopes that Meijiati will announce the party's presidential candidate.However, in her nearly two -hour speech, she did not propose the name of the candidate.As usual, she just mentioned the importance of the party, emphasizing that there is no presidential candidate without the support of the party, and said that without the support of the Democratic Party of the Democratic Party in the year, there would be no chance to be elected president.She said that the presidential candidate of the Democratic Party in the 2024s must be a party cadre, and her candidate will be made by her final decision.She also said that the presidential period is two sessions and cannot be extended.

She satirizes other parties who do not choose cadres within her party and launch his party cadres as presidential candidates. So what do they build the party?She also said that women have the ability to become an excellent leader, and it seems that her daughter Bu An has this ability.But from beginning to end, she did not mention the names of Ganjar Pranowo, Governor of Bunan and Java.Zoko also attended the party celebration as a party cadre, and he said that the name of the candidate in the bag of the United States and Garvarti.However, he didn't say it.

The party celebration conference was held in the International Exhibition Hall of Jakarta, and the scale was not as good as other parties.The Ugaviti's speech caused many political observers.Some people say that she does not give up and insists on her daughter Bian as President; others say that if the candidate is not Bu'an, Meijiadi will eventually come out to run again.In addition, from the US -Canada's speech, it can be seen that Gambar has no hope.If Gambar is excluded, the future of the Democratic Party will be a big threat.

The calculation of Meijiadi

In the long -term speech of the United States and Canada, the most interesting is a debate at the Indonesian lawyer club.In this more than an hour of debate, many political observers analyzed the speech by the United States and Canada.Although the various claims mentioned above appear in the debate, some observers have made different interpretations.

Panda Nabababan, a senior observer, said that the United States and Canada failed in the presidential election many times, and there was no face, so it was impossible to come out to run.However, another political observers Efffendi Gazali said that the possibility of the United States and Canada came out to campaign, because the current US -Canada is full of confidence.Another analyst pointed out that some people are currently promoting Zoko to stay in order to keep vested interests, but the conversation of US -Canada has denied this possibility.The United States and Canada "degraded" Zoko, saying that without the fighting Democratic Party nominated, there would be no chance to be elected. It was a fact.Because in accordance with the current presidential election regulations in Indonesia, only 20%of the party in Congress can nominate the presidential candidate separately.Political parties without 20%of seats can jointly nominate with other political parties.Therefore, if Zoko did not nominate the Democratic Party, he could not run the president at all.

However, the conversation of US -Canada seems to emphasize the importance of political parties to run for presidents, and also shows the power of her political party and her power.She and her party can launch candidates alone, while other political parties cannot do it.

The most predictive is the analysis of Ray Rangkuti, a political observer.He disagreed with the point of view of the average person, saying that Micharda did not have the name of Gandhar at all, which means that Gambar has been excluded.On the contrary, he believes that the Merga's speech does not have the names of Tou'an and Gandhar, indicating that Bu An is likely to be no longer the presidential candidate in the minds of the United States, and Gandhar's name is not proposed at this time because it is not proposed becausepremature.

Today, the opinions of the Democratic Party are different. Both of them have their own supporters, but what can be seen is that the forces that support Bu'an have begun to be micro, and even the "Major Committee" has dissolved.On the other hand, Gandhar's support for the Democratic Party in the struggle, but he has been in trouble within the party.The United States and Canada may be testing Gander to see if he can hold the pressure.

Langgudi believes that if the United States and Canada still did not announce the candidate in March this year, it would be no doubt that Gambur as a presidential candidate for the Democratic Party.This is because Gambar's support is still leading the polls, surpassing Anies Baswedan and Prabowo.Since there are no other candidates, Gandhar has such a high election rate, even if the United States propose other candidates later, the opportunity to be elected is not high.

Some people think that the later the Democratic Party nominated for the struggle, the more disadvantaged it was, because the other two candidates, the other two candidates,, and Prabowo, have started campaign last year.The list of candidates must be officially announced in October this year. The presidential election was held in February 2024, and it was four months before and after.

Anis polls chase Gandhar

Gandhar has not officially became the Presidential candidate in Indonesia in 2024, but in the current polls, his election rate is still the first.Among the three candidates who may run for the president, Anis's election rate was originally the last seat, but now surpassed Plabovo.

Anis has enough time to increase the support rate.He not only had the support of Muslim Conservatives and radicals, but also began to attract ethnic minorities and shape himself as a presidential candidate for multiple religions and maintaining ethnic minorities.He actively changed the image of supporting radicals and manipulating "identity" to a defender of a diversified religion and culture.

Although the National Democratic Party (NASDEM) has nominated Anis as the party's presidential candidate, the party's seat in Congress is only 10%, and it has not reached the request of a separate nomination of presidential candidates.Its "Alliance Party", former President Youdo Noye Democratic Party and the Justice and Prosperity Party (PKS) did not jointly nominate Anis because they all elected their party leaders to run for vice presidents.The Democratic Party wants Ayh (Ayh, Youdoro's son) as the deputy of Anis, and the fair and prosperous party wants his chairman Ahma Saicu to be the deputy.The two do not give up, so there are still no vice presidential candidates.

As for Plabowo, his GERINDRA and his Alliance Party Construction Unified Party (PPP) have jointly nominated him as a presidential candidate, but his vice presidential candidate has not decided.Plabowo was unwilling to be the party leader of the Alliance as the vice presidential candidate, because the person's reputation was not loud, and the election rate was extremely low.

Earlier, there were legends that Plabovo could form an alliance with the Democratic Party in the struggle, and Bu'an became the deputy of Plaboor.However, the speech of the United States and Canada in the party celebrates that the presidential candidate of the struggle to send the Democratic Party must be a party cadre, excluding the possibility of Plaboor and Bu An.

The Presidential Election of this time seems to be very long.So far, the candidate's name and their deputy have not been released.However, according to polls, the name of the presidential candidate may not change.Gambur, Anis, and Plabovo are still in the top three. Other names such as West Java Governor Liby Wan Camille, Creative Economy and Tourism Sandida KaminLater.

These three possible presidential candidates are evenly matched.Indonesian analysts generally believe that the ideas and forces they represent seem to be somewhat different.Gandchard represents the Indonesian nationalist camp, and strongly advocates national culture, opposed to Muslim France, and is very similar to Zoko's philosophy.In the eyes of many people, Anis represented pro -education conservatives and radicals. He used to use "identity of political" and cooperated with Muslim Audit School to defeat Zhong Wanxue.Jakarta's head.In the last year of his term, he changed his strategy to be good at not to not have a Muslim and strive for their votes, but many people still had concerns and fear of him.As for Plabovo, he is actually the old forces representing soldiers and Suhado.He advertised nationalism. In order to take power, he cooperated with the Muslim Conservatives and Radit -in -law in the past two presidential elections, but both defeated.Later, he joined the Cabinet of Zoko, who used to support his Muslim conservatives and radicals, and instead supported Anis.

Who did the last deer dead?It's not clear now.

The author is Singapore's Yusov Isa East South Asian Research Institute

Senior visiting researcher

Nanyang University of Science and Technology Rajelenan International Research Institute part -time professor

The Presidential Election of this time seems to be very long.So far, the candidate's name and their deputy have not been released.However, according to polls, the name of the presidential candidate may not change.Gandchar, Anis and Prabovo are still in the top three.