Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
On January 20th, the highly anticipated German Ramstein European and American Defense Ministers Aid Ukraine Council came and went. The most disappointed in Ukraine was the Olaf Scholz government of the German Social Party (SPD).Reject any country to output the German "Leopard 2" (MBT) to Ukraine.
Boris Pistorius, the new German defense director who had just been in office for two days, denied the criticism of "Germany's obstruction of tanks to loses black", saying that European and American allies did not have "unanimous opinions."The United States is embarrassed to publicize Germany to the President Joe Biden, and the downward to the "obstruction" of Germany's "obstruction" to Germany.needs".
Since Ukraine does want to launch a counterattack in the new year, the main battle tank will have a major help to promote it.However, because the American M1 Abrams uses a spray engine, energy consumption is large and difficulty in maintenance, so it is generally used in more than 10,000 Leopard 2 in more than 10,000 European countries and a total of more than 2,000.The best choice for losing the black.Many countries such as Poland, Finland have shown their willingness to export their "Leopard 2" to Ukraine, but they all need to get the consent of Germany in advance.
Continuous pressure on European countries
In order to put pressure on German Chancellor, Tsumarz, European countries can be regarded as strange conspiracy.First, the French President Emmanuel Macron exported. The day before the German and the United States announced earlier this month, the first day of the "infantry chariot" (IFV), the first announcement that France would export the "light battlefield tank" to Ukraine.AMX-10RC.In addition to the warm discussion of the "tank" in the military analysis community, it was also considered by German public opinion to be a move to Macron's pressure on Shuorz in the aspect of "humiliation".
Later, Britain, which has the "Challenger 2" with the "Leopard 2", decided to output such a weapon of the main battle tank, which actually broke the "NATO main battle tank and loses black".Contraindications.The 14 "Challenger 2" provided by the UK is of course "better than nothing", but "Challenger 2" is not popular and the number of existence is far lower than "Leopard 2".Pressure operation -after all, in the past, the words of Tonalz's refusal to lose the tanks were just that Germany should not act alone.
The most outrageous is Poland.After Pharise Britain's pressure separately, the new defense chief, the new defense minister, still did not want to change his position. Poland rushed to send a deputy foreign minister who sent a deputy foreign minister to say that Poland might not be able to do nothing without the Minister of Defense.Germany agreed to output "Leopard 2" to Ukraine, attracting extensive reports of European and American media. It can be regarded as a "timid ghost" game with Shuolz to see who retreat first.
However, Tsutz finally insisted on the position of not output the main battle tank, which disappointed many of the participants of Ram Stea.
Why is the main battle tank "red line"?
Many analysts of European and American countries recognize that Tsutz's "resolute" is puzzled.After all, Germany actually has more military assistance in Ukraine than Britain, and it is ranked behind the United States in a single country.Moreover, Germany has provided many weapons that will be considered "tanks" to be considered "tanks" to Ukraine, including the "Gepard" air defense tank (also known as aircraft guns) that started to supply Ukraine as early as last summer, andThe "mink mouse" infantry chariot who lost black this month.In the action of the very representative "Patriot" missile defense system to Ukraine, Germany is also one of the three suppliers.
The reasons that Shuorz recently hinted many times is also puzzling.It seems that the United States first agrees to supply the Ukraine M1 tank, and then Germany will follow the United States to export its Leopard 2 main battle tank to Ukraine.The problem is that it is precisely because the M1 tank is not suitable for the current situation of the Ukrainian battlefield, and Germany's Leopard 2 will become the key; if M1 is useful, the United States may have arranged supply by itself for a long time without relying on the hesitation of the Souls government.
Some people think that Tsutz is intentionally creating conditions for the ease of Russia and Ukraine talks and European Russia's future relationships.However, the negotiation conditions of Ukraine and Putin are unacceptable to the other party. Therefore, the premise of peace talks is that one of them must win.But even if we assume that Europe and the United States have disappeared all at once, in this worst case, Ukraine is likely to only become another Afghanistan, making the Russian and Ukraine War a long -term conflict on European land, Europe and Russia's future relationshipIt is unable to talk about it.
The rational analysis is not spiritual, and some people try to understand Tsugs from a cultural and psychological perspective.On the one hand, Germany's "post -World War II" narrative often emphasizes that "Europeans understand the preciousness of peace in World War II", so they are close to instinctual resistance to any operations of upgrading force.But this narrative ignores one thing: Germany is "defeated" to "learn and understand peace".
On the other hand, the Soviet Union suffered serious losses during World War II. After the establishment of the Russian Federation, this victim's narrative was more than Russia, and it was generally accepted by Germany.There is another sense of anxiety caused by another history.But this narrative ignores another point: Russia is only part of the Soviet Union. In fact, if calculated by the population proportion, Beros and Ukraine's World War II death was higher than Russia.
"Warm boiled shoes"?
For the motivation of Shuerz, Jana Puglierin, director of the Berlin Office of the European Foreign Relations (ECFR), has a unique analysis.She believes that Souls intends to support Ukraine, while always worrying that this will attract the Russian upgrade war."When the Federal Prime Minister talks" cautious ", I think he refers to a tentative way, which Americans call it" warm water boiled frog '. "The land increased the aid against the Ukraine, so that Russia believed that the division of Western aid was weak, and continued to bury its head on its traditional war route. In the end, it became deeper and deeper, and eventually lost to the Ukraine battlefield.
This analysis seems quite reasonable.After the Ram Stereon Defense Association this time, global media reported that Germany refused to export tanks to Ukraine, creating an atmosphere of Western -spoiled Ukraine and the lack of support for Ukraine.But before and before and after this defense meeting, countries in Europe and the United States have added a lot of help to the Ukraine: Sweden output 50 CV90 infantry chariots; the British output of 600 sulfur stones (Brimstone) anti -tank missiles; Denmark provides 19 aircraft provides 19 setsThe legal system CAESAR has taken the artillery; Poland offers 60 Soviet S-60 air defense single-tube high-firing guns; Estonia offers 10 various types of durian shots; the Czech Republic decided to increase the productionA series of Stinger air defense missiles, L-70 air defense guns, and some helicopters and drones; the US $ 2.5 billion military aid in the United States also includes an additional 59 M2 Bradley infantry chariot (M2 Bradley), eightAvenger air defense system, 90 (first provided) Stryker armored vehicle, etc.
The chairman of the joint meeting of the U.S. Staff, Mark Milley, the Army, said that the United States was probably equivalent to the needs of at least two joint arms legions (about 5,000 people in NATO),Has "Armor for offensive".
As for the problem of the Leopard 2 main battle tank, German Defense Chief Pistois only said that Germany would count the inventory that might lose, and did not further explain.However, after the defense ministers, Ukraine said that the Germans had allowed the Ukrainian army to provide training to the Ukraine in the country with the "Leopard 2", and the German side did not deny this.It can be seen that "Leopard 2"The supply is still on the table.
Is there a strategic consideration of this "warm water boiled shoes" behind it?Observe a few more months, we will probably get the answer.
