If you still talk about "political and economic reforms" and "expanding openness" on the current situation, it may belong to some kind of luxury.The author believes that in this year, if China can achieve the following "four do not", try to maintain the smooth operation of national livelihood, and no major economic imbalance errors can be considered as the standard.
The world situation in 2022 changes, ups and downs, and it is also a critical point that can start in 2023 that may cause major changes.Active aspects, such as the Qatar World Cup Football Contest, actually represents that most countries and people in the world have basically returned to normal from the global crown disease that outbreaks worldwide three years ago, and pushed the world and life with greater enthusiasm, expectations and energy to push the world and life.go ahead.
This year's challenging aspects should be mainly from the three major critical points: First, the Russian and Ukraine War continued to bring huge suffering to the people of the two countries, and seriously threatened the stability and peace of the region.In the 21st century, the darkness of the medieval century is still residual. Human civilization still has to face the brutal and foolish representatives represented by the current regime of Iran and Afghanistan.Unexpectedly or crisis in the proliferation of epidemic and policy errors, it will drag the global economy into a recession.
Russia has become the end of the Crossbow in the Ukrainian battlefield.Winning is hopeless on the regular battlefield, and instead tried to rely on the civil infrastructure that was paralyzed by an air strike to the Ukraine, forcing Ukraine to fight.However, Ukraine's fighting is more and more brave, and the international mainstream society has also continued to vigorously assist the Ukraine War of Resistance.With the increasingly unbalanced comparison of the power of the two sides, the Putin regime and the Russian army will collapse in a critical point within a year, which will be a high probability event.
At present, Putin has dilemma, and the beast is still fighting.Russia's tradition and authoritarian habits in Russia are doomed to have a final madness before he comprehensively failed.This kind of madness may be a coercion alliance, such as Beros to participate in the war, and once again launch an attack on the direction of Kiev, the capital of Ukraine; it may also use large -scale lethal weapons to resist the comprehensive counterattack of the Ukraine, especially the recovery of the Crimean Peninsula.effort.
Therefore, the last madness of Putin's insight and frustration of Putin became a major critical point for the changes in the world situation in 2023.The Russian -Ukraine War was dragged down for a long time, and it was naturally challenging to Ukraine, the European Union and the world, but it was even more detrimental to Putin and Russia.In 1917, the "February Revolution" in Russia overthrewd the Tsar rule, so that the later "October Revolution" was shocking. The reason was that the Russian army at the time at the front line of more than two years of the front line eventually triggered a major domestic political turmoil.Putin is now facing similar dilemma in domestic politics.As for Russia's internationally lost help internationally, it is even more obvious to all. The World Cup competition has fired the "ball" of the Russian team -that is, the qualifications for participating.
Iran and Afghanistan's current "political and religious" regime and rule, backward and barbaric directly back to the darkness of the Middle Ages.Such a regime can arrest women and protests by masked headscarves and street protests at will.
Since more than 500 years ago, the mainstream civilization of human beings has passed through unremitting exploration and struggle, replacing teaching rights with human rights, replacing theology with science, and free replacement of imprisonment.But today there are still individual countries and people living under the shadow of the Middle Ages.The long -term self -containing sin has also caused these magic sticks to be trapped in the strong resistance of the people and the comprehensive crusade of the international community.The current situation is that people know that such a barbaric regime and rule are unsustainable. The world knows that such outdated and reaction will be eliminated.The key is the timing of such historical changes. It should not be far away.
and modernization of the country to mistake the country and misunderstand the people
This also reminds some supporters of this kind of god stick regime now that there are ancient teachings in China that "do not do what you want, do not apply to others."May I ask these supporters, will they immigrate to a similar god stick country to live?Will children study or work such a country?If the answer is no, what is the inherent logic and consequences of the magical regime?If it is the strategy of following the "enemy's enemy is a friend", then who is the enemy and who is a friend?The judgment of righteousness in this regard should not be difficult. It is for the Middle Ages and the enemy of modernization.
In the end, I want to talk about China.In the past three years, the rigorous and clear control of the zero -sealing control became the current rapid turn, and the middle lack of reasonable preparation transition period. From one extreme jump to another, the current overall epidemic situation was extremely severe and unprecedented test.Some people try to review the gains and losses of the epidemic prevention process from a technical perspective, but those who are familiar with China's national conditions know that the problem of China is in the final analysis of political issues.
For example, there is a phenomenon that is quite puzzling, that is, in the process of epidemic prevention, it always promotes how to compare the United States.This is logically ridiculous, because from the perspective of epidemic prevention, the Chinese people are most concerned about how to effectively protect the health of themselves, family and employees.The related policies, means, measures, medicine, etc. are the most related to everyone's interests.What does the United States mean?Is the epidemic prevention into a certain vanity competition between the country?Does this have a direct connection and significance for the safety and health of the people?
The current topics of China, whether it is epidemic, economy, diplomacy, technology, education, military, culture, etc., the key is political.Leaving politics to discuss these topics is tickle between boots and must not be required.Yes, in the climax of China's reform and opening up more than 10 years ago, "pan -political" tendency has been neglected and curbed.However, the situation has changed significantly in these years, and "pan -political" has become popular.Therefore, if you still talk about "political and economic reforms" and "expanding openness" on the current situation, it may belong to some kind of luxury.The author believes that in this year, if China can achieve the following "four do not", try to maintain the smooth operation of national livelihood, and no major economic imbalance errors can be considered as the standard.
First, do not repeat the path of the National Games of the Manchu dynasty that year, that is, a vicious circle of closed -open -restoration -reform -restoration -collapse.Manchu is the last dynasty in China, and it is also the first case of the integration and development of Chinese society and modernization. It is difficult to transform, profound lessons, and Yin Jian is not far away.
Secondly, do not blindly follow the old path of the rise of Japanese militarism during World War II, that is, militarism -populist expansion -foreign aggression — world war -war -defeat.Japanese militarism is to use narrow humiliation and retaliation in instigating populism, and to explode geop expansion and self -superiority, and finally dragged Japan into the abyss of the war, and the world was enemy, until the disaster was destroyed.
Third, do not repeat the mistakes of the Ten years of the Cultural Revolution.The most critical lesson is why the Cultural Revolution happened and raged?Because people's governance replaces the regulations, the extreme replacement of stability, brutal replacement of civilization, superstition instead of rationality, despicable instead of conscience, imprisonment replaced by enlightenment.Today, if China is still ambiguous about the Cultural Revolution, "keeps cut, and is still chaotic."
Fourth, don't ignore the major historical lessons of the Soviet Union's failure to die.At that time, what the Soviet Union did that year, China must not be able to do it today, and even intensified it, including in terms of political economy, foreign military military, education science and technology, social culture, etc., otherwise it is not the same mistakes?If the Soviet -style socialism is unsuccessful, it is understandable to develop socialism with its own characteristics.However, the specific operations must have new ideas and reforms. You cannot copy the older sets of the Soviet Union. Wearing new shoes and walking old roads, you cannot develop the Kangzhuang Avenue, which can develop and progress in China.
Civilized upgrade is a real comprehensive progressProcess.Humans have gone through the various progress processes from carriage to cars, from oil lamps to electric lamps, from abacus to computer.The Chinese and Chinese people have also walked through the success and glory of 40 years of reform and opening up, and we must never return to the old road of Chen Rotten.This year, as long as the world adheres to progress and opposes backward; maintains peace, stop war; enhances civilization and reflects foolishness, new hope and development are in our hands.
(The author is an expert in international cultural strategy in the United States)
