January 2023

The world economy has been affected by factors such as crown disease epidemic, geopolitics, and geopolitical economy.Nowadays, the world has entered the stage of coexistence with the virus, but the Russian and Ukraine War continued, and the extensive game of great powers continued to drag the world. A few days ago, the latest report of the International Monetary Fund also warned that the global economy has fallen into the danger of severe fragmentation and may cause the overall economy to make the overall economy.The output atrophic is as many as 7 %. If there is still technology decoupling, the output of some economies may shrink by 8 % to 12 %.

This week, the World Economic Forum physical meeting was held in Davos, Switzerland.As a result of the investigation of the chief economist of private and public sector, two -thirds of the global recession is expected to occur this year, and about 18%of them believe that "it is likely" to have a global recession, which is more than twice the results of the survey last September.The global economy seems to be on the edge of decline.

But in the misery of sadness, people also saw that the light of hopes was revealed on the Home of Asia.Senior financial officials around the world who have met in Davos have very optimistic expectations for China's abandonment of clearing the clearing policy and open border. They believe that the re -opening of China may drive the global economic recovery, and even help major economies to avoid serious seriousness.decline.

At the same time, the latest report published on Tuesday (January 17) of the "Ayana Third" Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) also pointed out that although the global economic situation has deteriorated, China benefits from the relaxation of seal control measures, the economy, the economy, and the economy.It is expected to rebound strongly, which can boost the economic performance of Asiansan (China, Japan and South Korea) this year.

The

Report states that the tourism industry continues to recover, especially the number of Chinese tourists' recovery, which will help the economic growth in the region.China has relaxed the recovery of domestic demand after relaxation and control measures, so China's economic growth may accelerate.With the cancellation of epidemic prevention restrictions and the reopening of mainland China border, Hong Kong's economy is expected to rebound strongly.AMRO's chief economist said that although the risk of the United States and Europe is still high in the face of economic recession, the strong economic performance of China's economic performance will provide support for regional economic activities, and the border will boost the tourism performance in the region.

The so -called Chunjiang Water Warm Duck Prophet, the "duck" of the international tourism industry has taken the lead in perceiving recovery water warmth.The tourism industry in Singapore is no exception.The Singapore Tourism Bureau predicts that the increase in flights and China's relaxation of border control measures will drive the steps of recovery in the local tourism industry.The number of international passengers visiting Singapore this year can reach 1 million to 14 million, bringing about 18 billion to 21 billion yuan in tourism income to Singapore.This is the level of about 67 % to 75 % before the epidemic in 2019, and it may recover next year.

Southeast Asian countries have begun the border since last year, and the tourism industry also benefited first, and quickly returned to spring.There is no doubt that China's re -opening border will further activate the tourism industry in this area.It is believed that other economic, trade, investment, finance and other activities outside the tourism industry will gradually return to vitality and promote the recovery of the regional economy together.

For the Asian Gyanan and East Asian countries, this is a rare opportunity to enter the stage of crown disease.All countries must seize this opportunity, increase economic and trade cooperation, and promote the momentum of recovery. In addition to restoring the country's economic vitality and strengthening toughness, it also promotes the economic development of the region to continue to develop, strengthen the interconnection of the economies of various countries in the Asia -Pacific region, and make Asia a Asia a become Asia aThe locomotive that drives the full recovery of the world economy.

Of course, the overall recovery of the Asian economy cannot be smooth.Risk agencies pointed out that the world still faces three major risks this year: inflation, macroeconomic turbulence, and geopolitical conflict.The fierce game between the United States and its regional allies and China will always be an uncertain factor that may subvert the recovery process.An analysis article recently published by CNN (CNN) pointed out that Asia has entered a large -scale military reserve competition that has never been seen before, and it is risky to face out of control.This competition involves three major nuclear military countries and a nuclear military country that is developing rapidly, as well as the world's three major economies.One side is American and Asian allies Japan and South Korea, one is China and Russia, and the other is North Korea.

Based on this, Asian countries must be able to maintain strategic determination, manage and control geopolitical risks, and escort the economic recovery.