Source: Taiwan China Times
China Times Society
2024 The latest polls of the "Three -foot Governor", Hou Youyi's support decreased by 7.3%from the previous month, Lai Qingde and Ke Wenzhe grew about 5%respectively; if Hou Youyi asked Ding Great, he should be regarded as a major police message.As a result, it will be like South Korea's Yu in 2019. In hesitation, he will be exhausted in high popularity, and finally defeats.
Cross -strait policy must prove that it is not a straw bag
Hou Youyi has been elected as the mayor of New Taipei since 2018. The support of public opinion has always been high. Last year, the nine -in -one election was re -elected with a vote rate of 60 %, becoming the popular champion of the 2024 presidential election.The reason why Hou Youyi is supported by the public is that his 30 years of police career starts from the grassroots, and gradually promotes. He has been trusted by the chief of the blue and green officers, the love of his colleagues and the affirmation of the grassroots.This is what other candidates are difficult to compare.
If you want to negatively list Hou Youyi's reason for "not suitable for running for 2024", one is the current mayor of the mayor directly under the jurisdiction of the president. Whether the voters accept it is not doubt; the other is that although Hou Youyi has been trusted by the society, he has the presidential as president.The ability is a big question mark.The first obstacle problem is not great. After all, when he runs for the re -election of the mayor of New Taipei, he is already the most popular possibility of the 2024 election. Voters have already accepted the fact that he might run for president halfway; the second problem may be really a problem.Xu Xinliang, chairman of the party, pointed out that Hou and South Korea Yu were also straw bags and could not stand the test of the presidential election.
After the Sun Flower Study in 2014, the Cross -Strait policy of the Kuomintang began to be questioned by voters, and Hou Youyi always held Yingbaotai with "far away from political disputes".Although the 2022 Nine -in -1 Election of the DPP was severely frustrated, the Kuomintang won the most seats, but the votes have not increased significantly, because the young ethnic group chose the people's party.The Hou Youyi camp may think that the best strategy to run for 2024 is to be close to the DPP on both sides of the strait. With the "DPP that does not abandon power", it can make dark greens unable to pick up faults.Support can be maximized by voting.
Hou Youyi holding Ying Baotai is really safe for the mayor of the campaign, but the president of the campaign is very dangerous.Xu Xinliang was determined that Hou Youyi lacked a minimum understanding of cross -strait policies and foreign relations. Therefore, he determined that he was a straw bag, not the DPP opponent.But is this the correct judgment?
Cross -strait relations, US -China relations, and Taiwan -US relations have changed dramatically since 2018. Global strategists are worried that Taiwan will become another Ukraine.Fortunately, in the chaotic situation, the two strongs of China and the United States still intended to establish a guardrail relationship, and the two sides of the strait were barely in the "cold" and "hot conflict".Tsai Ing -wen did not accept the 1992 consensus and adhered to "the Republic of China and the People's Republic of China did not belong to each other."In short, Tsai Ing -wen's route is vague to Taiwan independence, and it is also blurred by the "one middle principle".
Historical opportunities believe that you can bear
The "dual fuzzy" strategy is not enough to make mutual benefit exchanges on both sides of the strait, but it has not allowed Beijing to get off the Taiwan.In contrast, Lai Qingde's self -description of "pragmatic Taiwan independence worker" is an irregular bomb.The British Financial Times commented on the eve of Lai Qingde as the Chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party. Although Lai Qingde tried to modify "Taiwan independence" with "pragmatic", "damage has caused".This comment became the "curse of Lai Qingde", suggesting that if he ascended to the big position, the risk of cross -strait war would be higher.For the Kuomintang and the people's party, if you can put forward the claims that can stabilize the people's hearts and persuade voters to support it, you can turn the future of Taiwan and turn in danger. This is a good opportunity to obtain power in the opposition party.
The Kuomintang generally guilty about their cross -strait routes and believes that advocating peace is the weakness of Beijing, and it will be labeled by the DPP as a "selling platform".However, the fierce war of the Taiwan Strait is not alarmist, but a factual description. The 2024 election is "the choice of war and peace".The DPP is more convincing, and the mainland can accept it.
Key issues are "straight -goal duel" and "tell the truth" in order to make people trust.Many people in the wild camp are good at calculation and vague speaking. Their academic experience may be higher than Hou Youyi, but they have never been recognized by mainstream public opinion.Interests.Hou Youyi shouldn't be short, but he must be brave as himself.
"Peace is like air". When I have it, I do n’t feel too much. Once they lose, they cannot survive.History opportunities fell on Hou Youyi's shoulders. Hou Youyi had the conditions to show the dawn of peace on both sides of the strait. The question is whether he believes in himself and believes in the people.
