Source: Bloomberg

Author: Saleha Mohsin, Philip Aldrick, Daniel Flatley

The new era of the big country's game is slowly pulling. At the same time that the world economic pattern has been reshaped, the endless new "flashing point" has become a northern needle for business leaders.

The European hot war has not disappeared, the Cold War of China and the United States has been upgraded, and the other parts of the world are facing the pressure of border selection stations.Political leaders adjust the priority of economic priority. On the one hand, they strive to avoid shortage of key commodities such as natural gas and semiconductors. On the other hand, resources can be used as competitive chips.

For the Davos Economic Forum held this week, all this marks that everyone believes that "the world is flat." The era of close global economic connection has gradually drifted. Now there is a bumpy journey under the foot of various countries.

Darwos's discussion topic will be carried out around emerging geopolitical risks.Some people focus on key products or markets. For example, the United States has introduced measures to prohibit China from acquiring high -precision technology from the United States, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has triggered global attention from energy security.Geopolical factors should not be underestimated, especially the risk of conflict between the Taiwan Strait.

Karen Harris, managing director of Bain's macro trend department, said before flying to Davos, "We live in a split world, and the financial system is fragile. One of the things everyone wants to know is: in a oneWhere to invest and how to invest in a multi -polarized world. "

The following is a summary of several potential hot issues this year.

Energy weapons

Energy is the core of the United States and its allies and the Russian economic war.Both sides are seeking weapons of energy, and more turbulence may occur in this field in 2023.

Russian President Putin said that the country participating in the United States and the Seventh -Kingdoms Group (G7) has no right to buy oil from Russia.At present, the price of the United States and G7 is $ 60/barrel (about S $ 79.21 per barrel).This price action has been promoted to the export price of Russian crude oil far lower than the threshold, and Putin's ability to provide funds for the war may be weakened.

Russian crude oil still has buyers, mainly India, China and Türkiye.Moscow can also choose to completely cut off the oil supply, which will cause serious damage to the oil market. Last year, crude oil prices soared and pushed up global inflation.

This is not completely related to crude oil.Similar restrictions on Russian oil products such as diesel will take effect next month, and some Western officials are worried that this may lead to a shortage of supply.

The closure of Russian natural gas pipelines has left a large hole in global supply.Although the warm winter in Europe has eased the severe supply of supply shortage and successfully lowered the price of natural gas and electricity, this year, countries may still fight for lock -in liquefied natural gas.

chip war

Semiconductor is an important part of new technologies for electric vehicles, ballistic missiles, and artificial intelligence, and is becoming one of the most important battlefields in the global economy.

In the past year, the Biden government has used various tools including export control to prevent Chinese purchases or manufacturing the most advanced chips.In addition, the United States has launched a 52 billion US dollar subsidy plan for the domestic chip industry, hoping to bring its manufacturing capabilities back to China.

The United States said that the Chinese chip action aims to limit Beijing officials to use technology for military affairs, and the Chinese government believes that the United States is intended to curb the Chinese economy.In any case, the United States has to pull the allies on the boat to work.The Netherlands and Japan, which have some advanced chip companies, have agreed to form a unified line with the United States.

But this requires a financial price. Companies that produce chips or chip manufacturing equipment may lose China's huge market.At the same time, Beijing is investing funds in the domestic semiconductor industry. Although cutting -edge technology may be difficult to copy, if the United States and allies tighten restrictions, China may implement revenge.

The Taiwan Strait War?

The United States and European leaders are worried that the next frontier of the New Cold War may become a hot battlefield.

Since the Kuomintang retired from Taiwan, the People's Republic of China insisted that Taiwan was an indiscriminate territory.The Pentagon of the United States recently stated that there was no sign of showing that the mainland's attack was about to be.However, it is expected that the United States Speaker Perosi will keep the PLA's local high -voltage trend since its visit to Taiwan.U.S. President Joe Biden has promised that if the mainland attacks Taiwan, the United States will send troops to defend Taiwan, which is different from the attitude of the United States on the Ukrainian issue.

In addition to the obvious risks of the direct outbreak of superpowers, there is still economic impact on the deadlock.As the place where TSMC, the world's largest chip manufacturer,, Taiwan is essential for various global supply chains.Even if the war is upgraded, such as the blockade of the mainland to the Taiwan Strait, it may trigger a huge Domino effect.

Tim Adams, CEO of the Institute of International Financial Research Institute, said that Beijing attacking Taiwan and possible Western responses are unexpected incidents that everyone must guard against.Essence"

"Youkan Outsourcing" and subsidies

Governments of various countries are increasingly willing to use economic means as a way to govern the country. This tool can be attacked or guarded.In terms of attack, it may mean that rejecting competitors enter the commodity or other markets.In terms of perseverance, it means that only reliable allies can be used as a strategic supply chain provider. This concept is called "Youkan Outsourcing".

But AIA may also be centrifugal.This is why countries have provided subsidies for domestic producers, and this transformation has led to friction.

The Biden government spends more than $ 50 billion to support domestic chip manufacturers.In addition, as part of the climate change plan for $ 437 billion, the White House also provides support for the electric vehicle industry.In this regard, the European response was fierce, accusing the allies of adopting unfair trade practices to encourage companies to move to the United States. The European side stated that it might introduce its own financial support measures.

There are risks of the global subsidy competition. The winner is a country with strong financial resources, and the loser is a developing country economy with heavy debt.

The rule of the dollar

More and more countries (not all opponents in the United States) are seeking other currencies outside the US dollar to carry out business because they believe that the United States will use the US dollar as a tool to promote foreign policy goals.

The Bayeng government frozen the central bank's central bank's approximately $ 7 billion reserves, so as not to flow into the Taliban.The United States and the European Union are considering legal confiscation of Russian foreign exchange reserves worth about trillion dollars and use it to rebuild Ukraine.

To replace the US dollar as the status of global reserve assets, even if it can be done, it may take many years to achieve it.In the first few months of the Russian and Ukraine War at the beginning of last year, the status of the US dollar was obvious.From the central bank to the commodity trade, the status of the US dollar in various fields has been ingrained and has no clear alternative.

However, China, Russia, and Iran, as well as India and Gulf Energy States, which have more friendly relations with Washington, are seeking to establish a method of avoiding the establishment of trade in the US dollar.Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Saudi Arabia last month may be a signal.

The risks faced by the United States and its allies are dual.Their sanctions weapon depends on the dominant position of the US dollar. If the US dollar is unstable, sanctions may lose some force.And if the trade agreement reached between non -Western economies will exclude key commodities in the marketIn addition, the United States and its allies may face inflation.