Source: WeChat public account "core plot research"

On January 5th, according to foreign media reports, Dell plans to eliminate all chips produced in China (including chips produced by foreign companies in China) by 2024, and remove 50%of production capacity out of mainland China in 2025.This is the first international terminal company in China, which has a major interest in China, and take the initiative to de -Chineseization measures without clear political pressure.

Dell, a widely influential international terminal company, takes the lead in de -Sinicization, which will inevitably do not respond to the global supply chain chain.China must conscientiously consider, strictly prevent prevention, to prevent other international companies, and the effect of breaking the window.

The harm of the Dell incident

First, Dell's move will trigger the Domino brand effect of foreign companies to de -Sinize.At present, the political pressure suffered by foreign companies in China is gradually increasing. At the same time, the United States and some Western governments have introduced many subsidy policies to encourage international enterprises to de -Chineseization.

According to the supply chain data of CNBC in December 2022, the US manufacturing order in China fell by 40%at the end of 2022.Although the order reduces the impact of the epidemic and the end of the year, Western countries have a leading role in deliberate restrictions on Chinese manufacturing.

According to foreign media reports, after Dell, HP also began to investigate its suppliers to weigh the feasibility of transfers production and assembly from China.The biggest task of an international packaging company in 2023 is to transfer the international orders of the Chinese factory to the Vietnamese factory, and the Vietnamese have been arranged to learn the production process in China later.

At this time, it was the multi -event autumn of China's supply chain. If Dell easily excluded the Chinese supply chain outside, it was applied by the US government to apply powder and dressed as a model of decoupling with red flowers. Other international companies would inevitably be heartbroken.The key is how China should deal with: For companies that can be recovered, they must retain them with a more growing industrial environment; for companies that are obsessed, they must accurately evaluate their dependence on the Chinese market and the Chinese supply chain, so that they will pay for themThe price.

If it is not able to deal with it, there will be a group of international companies to see Dell.Today is the de -Sinicization of American companies. Tomorrow is the de -Sinicization of companies in Japan, South Korea, Europe, and other countries. Today is the PC industry de -Sinicization. Tomorrow is the de -Sinicization of cars and other industries.

Second, the international supply chain will be Chinese, which will close the window for technological progress in China.Relying on strong manufacturing capabilities, China has grown into a world factory with the highest efficiency and largest output.Terminal manufacturing has driven the development of the local supply chain. Chip manufacturing and other high -tech industries have available to high -speed development. This is the underlying logic of China's high -speed progress in China in recent years, especially the growth of the world's largest chip market.At the same time, it is also the current Chinese chip industry, and the Chinese technology industry has against external sanctions.

But now Dell will eliminate the chips made in China, and the second must transfer 50 % of the capacity.If international companies operate this way, China's high -end manufacturing will lose the support of a powerful market, and the underlying logic of China's scientific and technological progress will be completely rewritten.In addition, it is a step -by -step process to go to China. It used to be the terminal manufacturing de -Sinicization, and then the parts and the supply chain were de -Sinicized.

Made in China and Chinese chips can only cultivate relevant talents only by joining the international supply chain and participating in international competition.If it is excluded out of the international market, it is equivalent to closing the window of Chinese chip technology progress.

Third, Dell's radical de -Chinaization has a huge impact on the ecology of the PC industry.PC assembly looks like a relatively low -end industry, with great output value, but the profit of contributions cannot be matched with the scale of output value, and some core chips cannot be manufactured local.However, the PC industry is of great significance to promote the ecology of the high -tech industry. It does not exist in low -end assembly and manufacturing, and high -end chip manufacturing will also be transferred.

Taking CPU and storage as an example, although the chip is not manufactured in local factories, a considerable number of CPUs are encapsulated in China; although Chinese storage companies have been severely damaged, foreign companies have a large amount of memory production capacity in China, such as Hylos Near recentlyHalf of the production capacity is in China. Even under the restrictions of the United States, the Dalian plant is built to expand the production of Wuxi and Chongqing.In fact, in addition to several core chips, most of the PCs are made in China.

If the PC is de -Sinicized and other terminals follow up, then the few chip manufacturing international companies such as Hynix have not continued to stay on the mainland, and the efforts of Chinese electronic companies to enter the international supply chain will be blocked.The PC industrial cluster gathered in Chongqing and Kunshan will be weakened step by step.

Chongqing's laptop production is the first in the world for 8 consecutive years. In 2021, laptop production exceeds 100 million units, with an output value of more than 400 billion yuan, accounting for 40 % of the global market share.Computers, communications and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries with laptops as the core have accounted for 72%of the total value of Chongqing during the same period, and the number of workers used in electronic information manufacturing reached 490,000.

The industrial ecology that is formed by PC is the same as any ecological environment in nature. It is both delicate and complicated, and it is difficult to recover once it is destroyed.Moreover, in such an economic cold winter, such an important industrial cluster is self -evident.

Dell Rannen's Negative

Dell is an international enterprise. Is it the freedom of the enterprise, or is it illegal to market rules and international morality?

One, Dell violated the public responsibility of the enterprise.Dell has entered China for more than 20 years, and the Chinese market has long been its second largest market.In the third quarter of 2022, Dell ranked second in the Chinese market, accounting for 11.7%.In recent years, as its main manufacturing base, China has produced most computers for Dell. Dell has obtained cheap production capacity from China and has also achieved huge sales in the Chinese market.

But Dell made such a decision to discriminate against the local supply chain without explicit political pressure. It can be said that Dell only wanted to make profits from the Chinese market and did not want to bear the responsibility it should bear.

Enterprise citizens are internationally recognized public responsibilities. The Boston College in the United States is so defined. A corporate citizen is closely related to the health of society and welfare., Supplier and Natural Environment.When enterprises obtain economic benefits, they must return to society in various ways.Dell has a lot of profits in the Chinese market, reward the Chinese market, repays Chinese customers and suppliers, and provides employment opportunities for China. It is the right meaning.

Second, Dell actively politically politically.In recent years, the Dell PC business has gone downhill in global competition. The former PC overlord has retired from the third world in the world.According to Canalys, the PC shipments in the Chinese market in the third quarter of 2022 fell 13%, and Dell's shipments decreased by 21%.But in the US market, Dell's shipments led their peers for the third quarter.Dell ranked among the top in the US PC market with a market share of 26.8%.

The disappearance of the Sino -US market may be that Dell manipulate politics to advertise to de -STD to cater to American politicians and strengthen the "rational" choice in the US market.

Dell's high -profile leading the lead in China has not been under pressure from the US government. It is purely Dell spontaneously provoked.Compared with the US government's pressure on China, the US government's attempts to restore the situation after being pressured by the US government and chip design companies, and the US government has a considerable room for de -Sinicization issues.If Dell respects the Chinese market, even if it is under pressure from the U.S. government, he will try his best to make the U.S. government make a certain resignation.But now Dell has nothing to do, and it is more aggressive and more active than the US government. It can only be said that Dell is in the heartVolunally and strategically abandon the Chinese market.

Three, no country can tolerate Dell's approach.Although the globalization is very loud, it is quite a long time to say that global trade and globalization are still the mainstream international guidelines.An international company actively discriminates against local chips and actively discriminates against the local supply chain. It is an unprecedented anti -globalization vicious incident.

Imagine what kind of punishment will this behavior suffer in any Western market in Europe and the United States?Europe strictly reviews and punishs the US technology giants under the name of digital sovereignty and antitrust. The United States strictly blames Chinese Internet companies in the name of data security.Three -foot waves.If this kind of obvious violations of the principle of free trade and seriously abandoning corporate citizen responsibilities occur in the West, it will definitely be severely punished.

Copy

Dell's move actively responded to the narrow gesture of the United States, and in fact cooperating with the US government's deductive and decourse "plan".It is also Dell's attempt to obtain more commercial interests in the US market by going to the US market. This kind of forgetful behavior is not reasonable anywhere.If Dell does not rationally damage China's interests and does not lose any losses, it will inevitably be followed by other companies.It is hoped that the relevant Chinese departments will be discussed with the industry, and the consequences of the Dell incident will be judged and reacted as soon as possible.

First of all, we still have to see that Dell has a huge impact and contribution in China.Dell has a global service center, production base, R & D center, thousands of R & D personnel, tens of thousands of employees, and Richard Del is worth reserving.We have to give Dell's good communication opportunities, understand its demands, solve difficulties, and understand the reason, persuade it to return to China, and continue to stay in China to develop. China will also create better conditions for foreign companies.

In any case, our first goal is to discourage international enterprises to de -Chineseization and give foot for the opportunity to turn back.Even if there are strong response measures, they should first be courteous to show the world to the world's sincerity, as well as China's open, fair and legal business environment.

Second, if Dell insists on deliberation, then China must resolutely countermeasures.We should not be emotional and populodized by our countermeasures. We must introduce penalties in accordance with the law for international practice.At the same time, the supply chain victims have prosecuted according to law and allowed Dell to pay the cost.

Third, refer to measures to consolidate the local manufacturing industry with reference to the United States Anti -Inflation Act, actively communicate with the international enterprises in China, introduce encouragement measures, improve and consolidate the "medium rate" of end products, use taxes and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures and other measures.Hook.

Fourth, actively maintain globalization, talk about communication with the International Chamber of Commerce, International Economic and Trade Organization, obtain consensus, and formulate anti -globalization bills.The measures that discriminate against the market -oriented supply chain due to political intervention in political intervention and protectism should be punished.

Fifth, encourage Chinese companies to actively participate in international competition and integrate into the international supply chain.In the current environment, it is not necessary to only do advanced businesses, and they are not interested in non -advanced products.At present, the first important thing is to be pragmatic in the international supply chain before it can gradually recover and enhance the contribution of Chinese manufacturing to the global economy.

Sixth, promote Chinese folk forces to communicate and make sense with the Western industry and the press, and Chinese people have the right to employment and improve their lives.At the same time, a China has not improved, the economy has lost prosperity, and the purchasing power is not good for the global economy.

Conclusion

Dell is not irreplaceable. When Dell is ready to de -Sinize, China should also be prepared to go to Dell.Nowadays, it is not time to look at it, because de -Sinicization is not a matter of entering and leaving one or two companies. At present, the international supply chain has consciousness to exclude that Chinese companies have emerged, and the international orders of chip design and foundry have been significantly reduced.Even if there are orders, the orders for new products are not given to Chinese companies.Chip products have one life cycle for three years. If you only make old products, after the old products are withered, Chinese companies will be completely crowded out of the international supply chain.In the long run, it has caused de facto decoupling.

If you do not resolutely intervene at this time, there is no cost to allow the entity that promotes de -Sinicization.It may be difficult for foreign companies to use Chinese chips, but who is not difficult in this world?Everyone's interests are coming. Lobolizing the country's governments and maintaining globalization are the obligations of international enterprises, and they also have room for gaming with the country.We cannot expect all foreign companies to have this consciousness, but at least international companies cannot become a pioneer for active de -Sinicization.

Manufacturing de -Sinicization is a process of smoothing the vine, extending from the downstream of the industrial chain to the upstream, from low -end to mid -end, and finally to high -end.If we do not take strong measures and take effectively, Made in China will slowly extract out the international supply chain and complete the decoupling with Made in China.To stop de -China, China must show the greatest sincerity as much as possible, listen to the demands of enterprises, set up a place for the development of the enterprise to create a more fair, more open, and more competitive business environment.

But if there is still an enterprise obsessed, China must brightly understand the attitude, and the necessary response is indispensable.Of course, when you do n’t have to do it, you still have to be professional restraint.It is also necessary for those international companies that are willing to cooperate with China to create prosperity to see China's willingness and effort to create open, fair and win -win business environment.