Source: Ming Pao
Author: Yin Ruilin
We may be able to quote the "composite" composed of a variety of negative adverse factors over the foam economy in the bubble economy.Among the adverse factors, the core is that the Chinese real estate bubble economy was crushed and affected. Due to the increasing land price increase, or even retreat, the central and local governments (including local investment and financing platforms) were in a fiscal deficit.Among them, the most significant economic phenomenon also includes real estate and related companies falling into huge debt. Most individuals and families face huge mortgage pressures, and the country, enterprises, families, and individuals instantly lose vitality.For the estimation of the crushing real estate bubble in China, and how it is different from the general economic recession, see the article on February 1, 2019, the article on the title of "Minski Moment" and "Assets Liability Tables"Essence
In addition to the bubble economy, the current Chinese economy also has epidemic conditions, as well as restrictions on markets, technology and funds such as the United States and Japan.Therefore, it is not an exaggeration to describe the word "severe".
Facing this situation, Chinese economists have put forward different countermeasures, relying on various economic theories behind them.When people pay attention to changes in politics, diplomatic, and epidemic, they should also pay attention to these economic countermeasures at the same time.After all, economics, as a social science, is different from natural sciences. It is difficult to experiment and experimental results to determine what plan to adopt; and the direction adjustment after nothing is heavy at cost.
According to personal observations, the attitude of Chinese economists on China's economic development suggestions can be roughly divided into two aspects, that is, relying on China's 1.4 billion population to actively improve the "internal circulation" mechanism, and promote the economy by approximately retreating to promote the economy.Continue to move forward; the other faction is based on deepening market mechanisms and international cooperation, supplemented by state -owned enterprises and social governance reforms, and improving the socialist market economy. The key is to regain confidence in Chinese and foreign investors.
For the former, the author impressed by Yang Shuai and Wen Tiejun, entitled to the currency "anchor": an article on the ecological transformation plan of the new development concept (exploring and contention in 2022 firstExpect).Yang Shuai is an associate professor at the Department of Economics and Social Sciences at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of Beijing University of Science and Technology. Wen Tiejun is a professor at Renmin University of China.The two authors said in the text that under the conditions of over -existent economic dependence in the past, China has relying on "foreign exchange account issuance", which has weakened the central bank's autonomy of regulating currency;Excessive liquidity entering the real estate industry, causing "disconnection to false", becoming an important reason for the bubble economy.
"Forestanding for Foreign Exchange" means that when foreign investment in China, foreign currency, such as the US dollar, converted to RMB through the People's Bank of China, can enter China.In order to exchange exchange, the state needs to invest a large amount of RMB, which has increased the "basic currency" of the banking system. Its financial effect is to increase China's "currency supply" through the loan multiplication effect in the banking system.
Similarly, due to the foreign exchange earned by the trade surplus, when it is returned to China, it is also through this conduction mechanism, resulting in superimposed "currency supply" super -issuing effect.Of course, when a large number of foreign capital withdraws from China and the increase in trade deficit, the circulation of China's RMB will reverse geometric reduction, and the economic volume is instantly contracted. To some extent reflect China's current currency supply.
Based on the above analysis, Yang Shuai and Wen Tiejun suggested: "From the long run, China starts a large domestic cycle, and first of all, it is necessary to find a reliable currency issuance 'anchor' to shedding the cyclical cycle of the currency issuance system of the anchor.risk".
As for the "anchor" of the new currency issuance, their suggestion is to "organize the strategy of rural rejuvenation into a new space for issuing currency and absorbing currency, so as to organically combine sovereign currency issuance and resource value within the scope of sovereignty.Flowing elements, unblocking domestic cycles. "
Under their ideas, as a basis for currency issuance, the value of resource assets held by "collective economic organizations".In terms of specific operations, they recommend operating in a third -level form, that is, the basic ownership relationship of the village collective economic organizations rationalize resources, and forms a first -level market with large -scale transactions; secondlySocial investment, the secondary market for promoting the capitalization of ecological resources; and breeding regional capital markets, and promoting the third -level market for securitization of ecological assets.
They continue to call "especially under the impact of the current global epidemic and the torrent of strategy to curb strategy to curb in China.Use of doctrine monetary theory ".
Of course, some people think that the suggestions of these two economists are too extreme, and China has not returned to the "unified economic" conditions before the reform and opening up.However, it is not necessary to ignore that the supply and marketing cooperatives and state -owned cafeterias in the economic period to reproduce and encourage unemployed workers and college graduates to return to their hometowns to start their own business. Is the conclusion that "China will not go back" is too early?
Another group of scholars in China, we can call it the promoter of the "socialist market economy in the rule of law". The author's recent impression is Wu Jinglian, a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center.The preface to the writing, he said that "" people who advocate the government's leading resource allocation have repeatedly launched an attack on market -oriented reform, and the owner has strengthened the government's direct or indirect control of the resource allocation, which has caused the process of reformPolicies have the opposite trend. "
Another article is worth noting that Wei Jianing, an academic consultant and chief economist of the China Industry Development Promotion Association, published at the 5th China Financial Security Forum on December last year.Speak.He said that China's "long -term economic growth slowdown has become the main reason for threatening national economic security."For some people's proposal, "Even if the international market is not good, we have a huge domestic market, who are we afraid of?" He asked about "demand for payment".What's the use of population scale?He emphasized that after the liberalization of the zero -zero policy, economic work should be centered on the construction of the rule of law, "because the most important business environment at home and abroad is the rule of law."
It can be seen from the above articles that discussions are not limited to academic categories, and they are also closely related to national economic security and current national policy orientation.No matter which direction is walking, the social changes have changed a lot.The Hong Kong economy is closely linked to mainland China, and the development of the two places has affected each other. We should pay greater attention to the current debate, especially when the national economy is facing "compounding" and crisis.Plan, be careful to go back and fit the time.
