Source: Bloomberg

The world economy is slightly happy at the beginning of the New Year, but whether this year can be fully concluded at all.

As far as its advantages are concerned, a variety of favorable factors are spoke. For example, the Chinese economy is reopen than expected, and Europe, which is suffering from the energy crisis, ushered in a warm winter, and the inflation rate in the United States has continued to decline.The haze of the financial market allows people to optimize the world to avoid decline.

But in view of the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and several other central banks are still advancing the interest rate hike process. The risk of economic landslides will not be eliminated later this year.This is even more so expected to go to the central bank.

"The road to soft landing is narrow," Jan Hatzius, chief economist of Goldman Sachs Group, said at a network seminar hosted by the Atlantic Council on January 11."Decision makers are difficult to accurately adjust the constraints."

His view is that the decision makers will succeed, and so is investors.Emerging market stocks are trending sharply, and corporate bond prices have risen. People hope that the world economy will get rid of the most terrible inflation in the past decades without falling into decline.

We have reason to be cautious and optimistic.The global price pressure is alleviating, part of the reason is that global economic growth has slowed, and the bottlenecks of supply chain bottlenecks caused by the crown disease epidemic and the Russian and Ukraine War are gradually relieved.In December, consumer prices in the United States rose 6.5%year -on -year, and fell from 9.1%in June.

Inflation will enhance the purchasing power of consumers. Don't forget that in the past year, they are deeply damaged by price increases, especially the necessary expenditures such as energy, food and rent.The central bank will also slow down the pace of interest rate hikes, reducing investors' concerns about decision makers and destruction in the market.

From the perspective of the federal fund interest rate futures market, investors expect the Fed Chairman Jerom Powell and his colleagues to decide to reduce the file rate hikes by 25 basis points at a meeting from January 31 to February 1.Earlier in December, they raised interest rates 50 basis points, and then 75 basis points each raised interest rates 4 times.

The Fed of Matsuo has led to a sharp rise in the US dollar, which relieves the pressure of other central banks to follow the Fed's interest rate hikes.

"We see the strong dollar that has been touched," said Megan Green, chief global economist at Kroll Institute.

Euras District

Thanks to the mild in the winter during the winter, countries work together to make up for the loss of Russia's energy supply, making the economic performance of the euro zone better than expected: Germany's industrial output value in November has increased slightly, although the country has seriously relied on Russian energy supply.

"As far as we see, the European economy has completely collapsed, and the risk of industrial dedication has been avoided," it has been avoided, "" German Economic Minister Robert Habeck said earlier this month.

Germany will also abandon China's "dynamic clearance" policies and benefit from the re -open economy. China is a major destination for Germany exports.

China

After liberalization in China, Wall Street economists are busy raising their predictions on China's economic growth.Barclays raised the growth forecast of GDP in 2023 from 3.8%to 4.8%, because the re -opening rate was faster than expected.Morgan Stanley is now expected to increase by 5.7%, and 4.4%was previously expected.

Although China's economic recovery is still obstacles, the real estate market is moving down, and the government has increased support, which means that the economic prospects are better than many people's expectations at the end of the year.

"We are now expected to be similar to the V recovery, just like many other economies that are closed due to the new crown epidemic," said Hatzius of Goldman Sachs.

However, the restart in China may also lead to the needs of oil and other commodities, as well as rising prices, which complicate the global inflation situation.

The United States

In December, the US Employment Report boosted people's hope, and it is optimistic that the Fed can curb inflation without allowing the economy to fall into the prospects of decline.The report shows that the growth of wages has slowed down, and the unemployment rate has dropped to a low of decades.

"It looks more like a soft landing," said Torsten Slok, chief economist of Apollo Global Management.

Despite the sprouting of optimism, the World Bank has greatly reduced the forecast of economic growth in most countries and regions this week, and warned that the new impact may still lead to economic recession.

Bruce Kasman, chief economist of JP Morgan Chase, said that although the risk of global economic recession has weakened recently, 70%of the possibility of 70%later this year or 2024.He said that for the Fed and the European Central Bank, prices and cost pressures may still be too long -lasting and too high, resulting in the possibility of global expansion.

"In the future, it is more likely to have economic recession," he said.