Chen Gang
At the beginning of the New Year, how to revitalize the economic development of the government in the government's work in the case of the Chinese government's gradual liberalization of the crown disease epidemic control, it has become a top priority for government work.In March of this year, the Chinese government will carry out a five -year reorganization. After the 20th National Congress of the Mainland Government, members of the Politburo, the Standing Committee, and the Central Committee of the Central Committee will hold important leadership positions in the new government.Li Qiang, the second place in the Standing Committee of the Politburo, is generally expected to be the post of Prime Minister of the State Council.After the new government team led by Li Qiang is in place, it will face a serious challenge to develop the economy.
Hidden concerns in China's economic growth
It should be said that even during the three -year epidemic period, the overall growth momentum is still maintained, and indicators such as trade, investment, and inflation have also performed well.However, the large -scale sealing and control experienced in Shanghai and other places in 2022, the impact on the industrial chain, supply chain, and consumer retail industry, and factors such as the Russian and Ukraine War and foreign demand downturn, which ledSet 5.5%growth target.Under such circumstances, the new government needs to adopt a heavy policy to promote the economy at full speed in order to effectively alleviate the pressure of employment, fiscal, and debt that the economic stall may bring.Whether it can achieve the "opening of the door" in the first half of the year will be an important indicator for measuring the new government's governance capabilities.
Economic growth is currently not just the performance of government officials, but also the main means to deal with various domestic issues.In the second half of last year, the increasingly increasing control and nucleic acid testing not only put tremendous pressure on employment and local finances, but also worsened the situation of local debt, and exacerbated the downturn in the real estate and consumer market.At present, the local fiscal gaps in many provinces and cities are large, and new debts are required to pay new debts in the new year.According to official data from China, in the first half of 2022, local government bonds issued 5.25 trillion yuan (RMB, about S $ 1 trillion, the same below), of which 1.33 trillion yuan and special bonds were 3.92 trillion yuan.It is estimated that in the new year, the scale of local debt issuance will be further expanded. To avoid being caught in a fiscal and financial crisis, the central government must find ways to help local governments increase fiscal revenue. The most fundamental way to increase fiscal revenue is to ensure economic growth.Make big cakes.
In addition to local governments and its financing platforms facing huge debt, large real estate developers in China have also faced debt risks for a long time.This risk accelerates deterioration due to the epidemic and deleveraging policies.Many small and medium -sized enterprises and personal debts have risen sharply due to sharp decline in income during the three -year epidemic period, and the liquidity of social capital has shrunk sharply.If these problems cannot be effectively resolved in the new year, the economy will face the risk of stall.
More importantly, the number of colleges and universities in China has exceeded 10 million each year, but this huge army of employment has encountered a difficult economic situation under the epidemic.If there is no sufficient employment in the new year to absorb these young people who have just stepped out of the school, it may cause social turmoil and affect political stability.
Internationally point of view, although China's relaxation of epidemic control has enabled some international exchanges to restore, the relationship between major powers is still not optimistic.In November last year, the heads of state of China and the United States realized the first face -to -face talks after the outbreak of the epidemic in Indonesia, which eased the tension between the two countries to a certain extent, but the resistance was still there.The House of Representatives of the United States Congress just passed a motion to formally establish a "Special Committee for Strategic Competition in the United States and the Chinese Government" to formulate a comprehensive strategy to respond to challenges from China.The "trade war" and "scientific and technological warfare" between the United States and China did not show signs of ease. The United States' layout in China has accelerated the evacuation of the surrounding countries.These have brought quite uncertainty to China's future economic and industrial development.
"New officials have three fires"?
There is a saying in China called "New Officials' Three Fires", which means that new officials often bring some changes at the beginning of their inaugurations to distinguish their predecessors and establish authority.The cabinet team led by Li Qiang, whether it can burn the "three fires" in the New Year and heat the Chinese economy, is worthy of attention.
Although the Chinese economy currently faces many challenges, there is no shortage of opportunities.First of all, with the relaxation of epidemic control, domestic and cross -border personnel have gradually recovered, and investment, consumption and trade will rebound significantly.What people currently lacks most is confidence and expectations for the future, so the government can do their homework on stable expectations and psychologically.Secondly, China did not adopt a large -scale fiscal stimulus policy during the entire epidemic period, as in Western countries, and the inflation rate also remained at a low level, which created conditions for the expansion fiscal and monetary policy when necessary in the future.Third, China still has a huge consumer market, and people's desire to consume is still very strong, but it is suppressed during the epidemic.As long as the government takes tax cuts and other measures to stimulate consumption, consumption upgrades are just around the corner.
In 2022, Chinese resident deposits increased by 17.84 trillion yuan to refresh their historical records.If the policy is proper, some savings can be directed to consumption and investment to promote the healthy development of the economy.The high savings rate of residents is a unique advantage compared to many mature economies. At present, the potential has not yet fully played.
In addition, economic development also requires the cooperation of policies such as diplomacy.Improve international relations, stabilize external needs and foreign investment is an important means to consolidate the status in the global industrial chain and supply chain.Release of goodwill and reducing hostility is the only way to develop and all countries and regions.Today's Chinese economy has been highly integrated into the global economy, and it is unlikely that they have closed their doors to develop again.Therefore, high -quality development and opening up not only depend on the own wishes of the Chinese government, but also affect the cooperation and support of other countries and enterprises.If the new government can create a good diplomatic situation, it will be conducive to economic recovery and industrial upgrading.
The author is the Institute of East Asia, the University of Singapore
Senior researcher and assistant director
Today's Chinese economy has been highly integrated into the global economy, and it is unlikely that the door is closed again to develop.Therefore, high -quality development and opening up not only depend on the own wishes of the Chinese government, but also affect the cooperation and support of other countries and enterprises.
