Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Ye Dehao
Sergey Surovikin, the commander -in -chief of the Russian "Special Military Operation", was just promoted in October last year.(Valery Gerasimov) takes over.Some analysts pointed out that many people who are familiar with Moscow in Russia are surprised by the Vladimir Putin decision, showing that this personnel exchange may be a sudden decision due to the current situation.
There are two major reasons for the reason why Grassimov's decision to replace Surovijin.The first is political reasons, and the second is military reasons.
Full of "Wagner"?
The reason why Surovin was replaced in early October was replaced by the commander of the Ukraine War, and the interpretation of all walks of life believed that this was the two major actions of Putin's two forces outside the Ministry of National Defense.
At that time, the publicity statement of "Halkov Everbright Russia" was still in the ear, and Russia experienced the loss of thousands of square kilometers of land in Kharkiv, which was targeted at Donetsk Ukong Control DistrictThe northern front line was completely disintegrated, and even Lagansk, which had already been in the country, has become the object of the Ukraine counterattack.
Whether it is the local leader of the Ukrainian Russian control zone, or the leader of Chechen Kadyrov, the leader who led the army in Ukraine, and even the Wagner Group (Wagner Group, the Wagner Group of Tens of thousands of soldiers,) Leader Yevgeny Prigozhin has publicly opened fire to Minister of Defense Sergey Shoigu and Gracimov.The words are fierce, and sometimes they invite them to "invite sin".
Surovin is supported by Cadrov and Pleigo.Putin appointed Surovin as the commander of the President of Ukraine, so it is considered to be a decision to unite all domestic security forces.Since then, the Wargner Legion, which is currently the only Russian main attack point Bakhmut at the Donedsk, has obviously received support and cooperation of Surovin.Surovin is also regarded as the final persuading Putin to withdraw from the unsustainable character Kherson.
In the past few months, the news of Shaygur and Grassimov may have been heard from time to time.Some commentators believe that the reason why they can keep their positions are all about Putin's war maintenance consideration.
However, let Pleigin play the role of even more three months after playing the Ukrainian battlefield, but Putin changed his decision again and re -supported the characters supported by the Ministry of Defense to the Ukrainian war.Does Putin have enough foreign military forces such as Chechen armed forces and the Walga Army?If so, why did Putin make two 180 degrees in just three months?
On the other hand, from a military perspective, the performance of Surovijin and Pleigoin and others are not outstanding.
New military deployment?
Surovijin, who had finally obtained the decisive advantage in Syria's air strike tactics in Syria, finally launched a decisive advantage in the decisive advantage. As soon as he took office, he launched a missile and drone attack against energy infrastructure in various parts of Ukraine.Specifies the cold winter when the water is stopped and stopped heating.This tactics turned, and once made European and American countries worry that Ukraine's anti -Russian citizens could not support it, but today, three months later, the poverty of material conditions still failed to dispel the will of the Ukraine. At the same time, the Russian army's attack frequency seemed to have anyThe gradual reduction of the trend may show that the evaluation of the insufficient weapons of its precise weapons in the past few months is not far from the actual situation.
Russia's Bachurut, who has tried to overcome since last summer. Under the fierce attack of Porigo, Russia and Ukraine have suffered heavy injuries, but the unnecessary death of the two sides did not exchange clear results.On January 10, Porigabin announced that it had won Soledar, a small town of less than 10 kilometers away from Bachurut, but then Russia and Ukraine officially did not confirm the news.
It is also true that after the war of Surovijin, Porigo, and others, the Russian side did not lose the land that had been won in large scale, but this stalemate war and Putin's "four places entered Russia" war.The lower limit of the target is far apart, and it is difficult for people to know that this is caused by the muddy weather between autumn and winter, and it is also the result of the effective leadership of Su, Pu and other people.
At the level of military governance, Ukraine attacked a temporary military camp at Makiivka Makiivka on New Year's Day, causing at least 89 people to die because the soldiers used their mobile phones in the camp.Caused by Ukraine's successful positioning -this also shows that Surovijin's leadership has not changed the issue of governing the army at the beginning of the Russian and Ukraine war.
According to the Russian Ministry of National Defense, the chief of staff Grassimov, the chief of staff Grassimov, is to improve the quality and effectiveness of the leadership level and the quality and effectiveness of the Russian military management.The change of Surovin may really be related to the latter's battlefield performance.In recent months, it is rumored that Russia may launch another large -scale offensive in the new year. It may be launched from Lugusk, or it may go south to the south to pick up Kiev.Glacimov's appointment may also be the new wave of attack.
If so, it is worthwhile that Grassimov had participated in it when the Russian and Ukraine War began. As the chief of staff of the armed forces, it was even more responsible for the war at this moment.If he has a high opinion of how to break the deadlock of the Ukraine battlefield (even to reverse the relative disadvantages of Russia), it has long been reflected on the battlefield.Compared to Surovijin, who performed the best Southern Army in Wu before taking office, Glacimov's appointment seemed to be more difficult to bring positive changes to the current situation of the war.
The so -called "before the battle is a taboo for soldiers", whether the decision of the Glacimov is in charge of the Ukrainian war, whether it is because of political factors, war reasons, or both.Putin, who is taboo for soldiers, is indeed very worried about the performance of the Russian -Russian army.
