Gao Jiansheng: Avoiding decline is the biggest expectation of the new year

Gao Jiansheng

There is no national boundary for the New Year, the difference is just the expected content.What kind of expectations should I have in 2023?Ending the Russian and Ukraine War, slowing the spread of epidemic, suppressing global inflation, resolving the supply chain crisis, enhancing the reputation of currency, strengthening global cooperation, and response to extreme climate, I am afraid that they are all in options.However, it should be that countries should do their own economy and avoid recession.

On the first day of 2023, Georkeva, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned in an interview with the United States Broadcasting Corporation that one -third of the global economy will fall into a decline. Even if there is no decline, there is no declineIn the country, hundreds of millions of people feel like a decline.This coincides with a 2.2%answer to World economic growth expectations earlier.At the end of 2021, APEC boldly estimated that the growth rate of global GDP (GDP) in 2022 was 4.5%.During the year, from 4.5%to 2.2%of the prediction changes, it is exactly the same as Georkeva's view of the prospect of world economic development.

Why is 4.5%of the expectations at the end of the year?The supply chain crisis caused by the Russia -Ukraine War, the resurgence of the epidemic, the extreme climate, the supply chain crisis caused by the dispute between China and the United States, the reduction of the trust between the country, and so on.But does the impact of these factors don't know?Or does the difficulty of eliminating these factors do not understand?It doesn't matter.Knowing that it is difficult to resolve contradictions and symptoms, the world in 2022 is to be entangled: deliberately triggering war, refueling fire for conflict, threats to sanctions, etc.Naturally, the economic recession.

American scholar Huntington said: "The legitimacy of the rulers usually depends on their expectations of some key voters for their political achievements."Those will replace them. "This means that economic recession is a disaster for countries. As a direct victim, the general public will use votes to make" a group of new rulers succeed them. "This is an ending that political leaders should absolutely avoid, at least for maintaining basic legitimacy.

But the cause of this ending is not fearless of "losing legitimacy" by politicians who have been in the sofa field.The entanglement of "the nightmare of the" imaginary enemy "that does not exist, and so on.The misalignment and hesitation in guiding ideology makes some people forget that the development of the economy is the first priority for politicians. This is more or less less than a lesson worthy of summary or thinking in the past year.

It is necessary to keep awake in the chaos

In a chaotic phenomenon, some countries are very sober.For example, India, from the outbreak of the world economic crisis in 2008 to the current 13 years, facing the global economic downturn, India's GDP rose from 1.2 trillion US dollars to US $ 3.09 trillion in 2021.8.3%, jumping more than France, ranking sixth in the world's total economy.IMF is expected to grow at a 6.3%growth. India will exceed the United Kingdom throughout the year last year and become the fifth largest economy in the world.

For more than 10 countries in Asia, GDP, GDP from 1.3 trillion US dollars in 2008, by US $ 3.4 trillion in 2021, and exceeding $ 3.2 trillion in 2019 before the epidemic.The total trade volume of Yajia'an in 2021 also exceeded 3 trillion US dollars, which not only became the fourth largest main body of the world in the world, China and the United States, but also attracted foreign direct investment of 175 billion US dollars.Direct investment destination.

Therefore, people are concerned about the victory of the Indian People's Party in 2019, while paying attention to the victory of the Indian People's Party in 2019, and the increasingly improving influence of Asia, whether they have considered the economic growth performance behind them, and have they thought about their efforts to avoid the economy.What about the efforts of the conflict of the big country?In contrast, European countries with an eye -catching degree of public opinion and a high exposure rate have been caused by Russia and Ukraine, which are involved in the war to the early trouble of the world economic recession.The Ukraine War was disturbing Germany, France, and the United Kingdom. It was more than 10 years of economic downturn, which not only dragged down the world economic recovery, but also caused the domestic affairs bureau to be frequent.

In fact, when many countries put their energy and attention on observation or even "more and more confrontation", especially in the past year, the top two economies in the world,Although they are facing many problems, they all value the economic recession.From the economic crisis in 2008 to the present, the two countries have made nearly 70 % of the global GDP incremental increase.In 2008, the total GDP of the world was US $ 6.371 trillion, and in 2021 was about 9.61 trillion US dollars, an increase of about 32 trillion US dollars, of which China increased from 3.3 trillion to $ 14.7 trillion, an increase of 11 trillion.14.7 trillion yuan increased to $ 23 trillion, an increase of 9 trillion.This may tell people what it should be sober.

to make a good economy becomes the biggest expectation

Entering the new year, remembering China 30 years ago, Su Dong's drama, the end of the Cold War, the external environment and political storm, and the price of the price failed, the domestic contradictions have fallen sharply.Attract the contradictions outside the economy.Fortunately, Deng Xiaoping in 1992, "If you do not develop your economy and do not improve people's lives, you can only be a dead end", in exchange for the rapid economic development of 20 years of economy, which has benefited more than 1 billion Chinese people.world.

Still that era.James Kavier, the chief campaign strategy consultant of the Clinton's 1992 election, should respond when asked which topic was asked to give voters: "It's the Economy, Stupid!" (Fool, the key is the economy!).In this sentence, the sword that Clinton finally pierced the time of the then President Bush's re -entered dream, so that the old Bush Carter's rear dust, which had a great reputation due to the success of the Soviet Union's disintegration and desert storm operation at that time.Both were defeated in elections due to the decline of the domestic economy.Conversely, almost every U.S. president who seeks re -election during economic growth can easily win, such as Reagan in 1984, Clinton in 1996, and Bush and Obama in 2004 and 2012.

The truth is the same in all countries.The economy is a rice bowl. Eat more and eat less, eat delicious or bad, so you have to eat.What is the "rice bowl" in the world?To be honest, Georkeva and APEC's pessimistic expectations for the world economic growth in 2023 are the answer.Obviously, the Russian and Ukraine War, geopolitical competition, or the prevention and control of the world's epidemic, disaster prevention, and problems such as food, resources, environment, etc., must develop the "rice bowl" bottom of the economy.

If politicians in different countries are really visually, they should put their energy on the development of domestic economic development. Do not disrupt the vulnerable world economic recovery for self -interest and greedy, let alone give up because of a momentary fever or "face" and "image".The possible compromise and cooperation, like the "fool" that Kavier said, embarked on Deng Xiaoping's "dead road".

Of course, if anyone knows the importance of "rice bowl", but for its own "rice bowl", he has taken the extreme and grabs the "rice bowls" of other people with war, sanctions, blackmail, and threats.Own.

Therefore, from the beginning of 2023, there are less disputes, conflicts, and create less contradictions, so that avoiding recession becomes the greatest expectation."For a group of political leaders at the level, they are all goodDa Yan's benefit.

The author is a professor of Shanxi Academy of Administration