Yu Shiyu
2022 is a year when international conflicts and internal contradictions are continuously intensified.Especially at the beginning of the year, Russian President Putin launched a "special military operation" against Ukraine, becoming the largest military conflict that broke out in Europe since the end of World War II.Former American House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan last August, and the failure of the "one country, two systems" in Hong Kong made the Taiwan Strait War dense.
After the end of the Cold War, American scholar Huntington proposed the theory of civilization conflict, arguing that conflicts between different civilizations replaced the ideological opposition between capitalism and communism, and became the leadership of international contradictions in the future.The terrorism promoted by the extreme forces of Islam and the long -term anti -terrorism war in the United States have provided empirical evidence for civilized conflict theory.
In my opinion, the development of the international situation, especially the 2022 Russia -Ukraine War and the Taiwan Strait crisis, showed the limitations of civilized conflict theory and even misjudgment: in recent years, the focus of serious military conflicts or crisisThey all appear inside the civilization defined by Huntington.Like the Cold War, in the current "Cold War 2.0" version, the political system rather than different civilizations, and once again dominates international conflicts.Because the planned economy system under the communist belief basically does not exist, it may be possible to attribute the "Cold War 2.0" to a conflict between the diversified system of Europe and the United States and the one -ivers of the one -ivers of China and Russia and other countries.
The ending of this political system conflict is unpredictable, especially since the beginning of the new century, the one -piece political system in mainland China has significantly surpassed the world's boss and the United States in terms of economic development.Depending on the comparison of economy and scientific and technological strength.
In terms of administrative efficiency, the uniform system is obviously better than the diversified system.Will this be converted into an advantage in economic competition?It may be possible to quote why the country's masterpiece failed in the theory of political economics (why National Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and POVERTY).) The system, that is, the political system and economic opportunities are open to most ethnic groups and social classes.In terms of allowing different political opinions, the diversified system is better than a uniform system, and it is not necessary to speak.In recent years, the defects of European and American countries have been to keep political opportunities open, and the channels for economic rise are becoming more and more limited to intellectual elites, pushing the blue -collar class to populism.The long -term prospects of Western countries lies in its diversified political system, whether it can correct the problem of inequality of economic opportunities in modern technology.
Just as the researcher of Yale University and former chief economist of Morgan Stanley, Stephen Roach, recently emphasized that in the past few decades of rapid development, in addition to benefiting from globalization, the main driving force is also private enterprises and entrepreneurship.By.With the so -called "national retreat", the tolerance of China's economic opportunities is obviously declining.In addition, China has faced the prospects of the laborer population began to decrease and the total population is about to decline.This population crisis also reflects the inefficiency of decision -making error correction under the high -efficiency administration of the one -scale system.In addition, compared with public social contradictions under the diversified system, social contradictions under the unified system are often unpredictable due to hiddenness.
Due to the failure of ideological beliefs, the unity system has shifted to nationalism.For example, Beijing often promotes the current contradictions between China and Western countries to more than a hundred years ago that China has been extended by the whitening of the "Western powers" of the white "Western powers" more than a hundred years ago.Such a history is compared with the evolution of the "Western powers".
Taking the European White Master British Britain as an example, the Prime Minister is now the second generation of Hindu immigration, while the mayor of London is the second generation of Pakistan Muslim immigrants.In today's Western boss and the United States, white people are about to become a minority of a total population. Among the high -education elite groups, people who have attended the national annual conference of science and technology engineering disciplines in the United States know that white people have long been a minority.This is the trend of "Great Replacement" that has stimulated Western white racism in recent years, no matter what.However, the reality of the evolution of this population further demonstrates the essence of the political system conflict of "Cold War 2.0".
The author is engaged in scientific research in North America
