Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
George Ava, president of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said in an interview at the beginning of the New Year that China, as one of the world engines, economic growth last year may fall for the first time in 40 years or below the global level. Not only that, this yearEconomic development will be more difficult than last year, because economic activities of major economies such as the United States, China, the European Union and Japan will slow down at the same time.
In October 2022, the IMF lowered the global economic prospect of 2023, including: the Russian and Ukraine War, inflation pressure, and high interest rate measures launched by central banks from various countries.At the same time, China gradually loosen the "clear zero" policy and moves towards the road of restarting "coexisting with the virus", but the crown disease diagnosis has surged in a short period of time, resulting in the vigilance of Chinese consumers, even if strict closed control measuresIt has been lifted, but the economic activity and labor market has not seen significantly.
Because of the phenomenon and effects of China's "clearing zero" policy in recent months, the IMF has begun to conservative and negative about the growth of China's economic growth. It has made a judgment that the Chinese economy will be lower than the global level in 40 years.Based on this, George Ava's latest information: Later in January, the IMF will announce the latest economic forecasts when holding the World Economic Forum in Switzerland. At that time, China and global economic prospects may be reduced again.
IMF to the Chinese economy, it is estimated that it will accelerate by 4.4%in 2023 three months ago, but now it has shifted from positive to negative. Such a huge adjustment is mainly based on the adjustment of natural and China's anti -epidemic policy to the economy.The effect of the activity is related.However, the Chinese economy in 2023 can make predictions only from the perspective of anti -epidemic policies and its effects, and we have reserved and willing to put forward the following views.
First of all, at the fourth Bund Financial Summit held a few days ago, Zhang Bin, deputy director of the Institute of Economics and Political Sciences of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, suggested that Chinese policy officials should appropriately raise inflation tolerance to help the economy rebound.Zhang Bin further pointed out that for the current rough estimate of China's economic situation, if the output is to be maintained and controlled the output gap, the lowest economic growth rate will be required throughout the year;To achieve full employment, 6.8%of the economic growth rate is required.Economic work in 2023 should strive for more than 6%of the economic growth goals.
Zhang Bin's analysis theory and suggestions are obviously different from the IMF's observation and research on China's economic growth. We are more inclined to identify the former rather than the latter. There are three main reasons:
One, as IMF said, China's economic growth in 2022 is likely to be the first time in 40 years lower than the global average, which is of course related to adhering to the "clear zero" policy.Now China is rapidly loosening this policy. Although the number of crown diseases seeing the crown disease in the early stage of loosening, the surge in crown disease has caused consumers to be full of alert effects on economic activities. However, it should be a short -term phenomenon.In three years, the asphyxia effect caused by the "clear zero" policy to production activities will be fully liberated due to loosening. Therefore, on the basis of extremely low growth in 2022, the strong rebound in 2023 is a reasonable judgment.
Second, more importantly is the source of power of growth.Under the United States' strong curbing strategy for China, China proposed a dual -cycle strategy internally and outside, but in fact, it focuses more on domestic demand.However, with the development of the Belt and Road Initiative, the start of the RCEP, the expansion of China's leading Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS countries, especially the strengthening of economic and trade relations between China and the Middle East, the situation of domestic demand and foreign demand linkage is emerging. This is emerging.It will undoubtedly greatly reverse the unfavorable situation of China's foreign demand in recent years.
Three, in terms of domestic demand, there is a huge space in both monetary and fiscal policies.For example, monetary policy, as Zhang Bin said, as long as the inflation tolerance is appropriately raised, there is quite a very loose room. This situation is much more beautiful and European advantage. As for the fiscal policy, cooperate with the "common prosperity" administration, and it will also fully mobilize the huge mobilization.Domestic demand potential.
Based on the above analysis, we believe that in March of this year, there are a lot of chances to propose obvious expansion of fiscal policies, and relatively positive monetary policies.Information.
