Chen Shiming
Republican leader McCarthy was finally elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives after 15 rounds of voting last weekend.During this period, netizens and the media also laughed at the United States' political deadlock. It is expected that the United States will slow down the pace of further difficulties in China.Whether such optimism expectations are reliable, although it needs time to prove, but from the current local public opinion and the latest trends of American companies, the economic and trade relations between China and the United States are not smooth in the future.
The hardships of McCarthy as the Speaker of the House of Representatives are actually not good news for the development of Sino -US relations.The resistance he encountered was not based on his tough stance to China. On the contrary, the opposition he faced was a stronger Republican member with a stronger position; that is, after he succeeded in servingMaintain the existing tough situation, or take a tougher attitude and commitment than it is currently.He has clearly stated that he will visit Taiwan as the Speaker of the Speaker, and it will also set up the Chinese government to have a strong reaction of the Coronary Virus Traceability Committee.
It is foreseeable that during his next term, Sino -US relations may continue to roll up a lot of stormy waves.
Since the preparation of US legislature can play a role in eased Sino -US relations, what is the position of Bayeng's government?In recent years, the tough movements of the Biden government have not been less than China. Whether it is the force display around the mainland of China or the layer of high -tech export control, it can be said that it has been more than the previous Trump administration.It is no better.Nowadays, the doubts in everyone's hearts are inevitable whether the Bayeng government who has two years of term will be more difficult for China.
Based on US President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 last year at the G20 summit last November. Many analysts believe that the two countries are expected to control differentiated and contradictions to ensure that while maintaining mutual competition.As for further deterioration of bilateral relations.However, from the current American public opinion, in the multi -level relationships between the two countries, I am afraid that the management and avoidance of the risk of military conflicts are more progressive, and the deterioration of economic and trade relations may not be effectively controlled.sex.
Although the Biden government has a considerable difference in responding to China's economic and trade policy, from the perspective of the general direction, it will continue to take the route that the US Minister of Commerce Raymond has recently elaborated, that is, the United States "does not seek the economic economy.It will be "decoupled with China's economy", but it will "continue to put pressure on China and require the other party to solve non -market economy behavior that leads to the unfair competition environment."
Whether Biden will tilt to Congress hardline
Will such a general direction change in the next two years, and to a large extent, watching whether Raymond's position can meet the Bayeng government and the new House of Representatives may appear more.Hard requirements.In order to ensure that the military conflict between the two countries can be controlled and controlled, the bilateral economic and trade issues with relatively low risk have to be tilted to the government and Congress within the government and Congress, which will be a large weathervane to pay attention to in the future.
As for the content of the economic and trade demands of the US more hardcore party in China, it can generally be published in the New York Times from the 21st last month.In the comments, you can see the clue.
Leitchizer is disapproved of Raymond's claims that he does not seek to decompose with the Chinese economy.He believes that in terms of US national security or economic development, it is imperative to "strategic decoupling" with the Chinese economy.The specific suggestions of the "strategic decourse" put forward in the comments can be used as a blueprint for the United States to take further tough economic and trade measures in the future, so it is worthy of reference.
First of all, Littichzer does not think that the United States should cancel the current tariffs on imported products in China. Instead, on the contrary, tariffs on products imported to the United States should be gradually imposed until the bilateral trade can reach a rough level of balance.Secondly, the United States should relieve its own technology and the other party's interconnection. Specifically, it is to strengthen export control to China, further restrict the export objects that allow exports to China, and prevent the high -end manufacturing industry from being integrated with local advanced industries in China to integrate with local advanced industries in China.project.It is also necessary for the United States to adopt more tax rewards or control policies that similar chip bills to ensure that advanced technologies continue to stay in the United States or allies.
In the end, it may also be a suggestion that attracted greater attention in the region. It is that the United States should further restrict investment in China and China's investment in the United States.Leitchizer believes that the investment in the United States has strengthened China's economic and military forces, and from time to time, the key supply chain is from the United States to the other party, and China's investment in the United States often causes the loss of American technology and sensitive data.
Mutual benefit is no longer the mainstream of public opinion
Obviously, the proposal of Littichzer reflects the fact that the United States is currently increasingly zero -sum game instead of the mainstream from the perspective of mutual benefit, to look at the public opinion reality of Sino -US economic and trade relations.His view is believed to not only obtain the recognition of politicians with a stronger position in China, but also seems to echo the position of some members in the Biden government.The current trade representative Dai Qi has resolutely opposed the cancellation of existing tariffs on imports in China; National Security Consultant Sha Liwen also said last year that the sanctions industry on China should not stop in the semiconductor chip industry, and specifically pointed out that Chinese biotechnology and clean energy sourcesIt should be included, and at the time, it also caused the shocks of these industry stocks.Whether their position on China has further affected Biden in the next two years, and will greatly determine whether the United States will take more tough economic and trade measures to China.
In fact, in the face of a future full of uncertainty, American companies with business exchanges with China have also adopted various risk aversion measures in advance. This is like "Self-Fulfilling"PROPHECY), like, has made bilateral economic and trade relations move towards decoupling, further and more facts.Nikkei News reported last week that Dell Technology plans to stop using Chinese chips by next year, and has told suppliers to reduce the number of Chinese manufacturing components; another peer Hewlett -Packard, it is said that they have also started researching and assembling production and assembly to transfer from China and feasible.sex.
In short, so far, there is no sign of the tension between China and the United States, and it may be possible to ease due to the political deadlock in the United States.As the negativeization of American public opinion on China and even the demonization of China have been solidified, the bilateral economic and trade relations are undergoing public opinion.The twists and turns have troubled the relationship between the two countries.
The author is a local freelance writer
In fact, in the face of a future full of uncertainty, American companies with business exchanges with China have also adopted various risk aversion measures in advance.The bilateral economic and trade relations are decoupled towards the decourse, and it is more and more facts.
