Chen Luhui

After the DPP ruling in Taiwan in 2022, after the local elections defeated, they immediately opened another important election -the presidential election in 2024.Although Vice President Lai Qingde announced the chairman of the Democratic Progressive Party and becoming the most likely party presidential candidate for the DPP. The trend of other major political parties is currently unclear.

The Kuomintang part is Hou Youyi, the mayor of New Taipei, who has just been elected?Is it representative of other people in the party?This requires negotiation and communication in the party.In particular, Hou Youyi was just elected for re -election. Can't he "do well and do well"?Need the Kuomintang give appropriate explanation.In terms of the people's party, Taipei Mayor Ke Wenzhe, who has just stepped down, has obtained more than 5%of the effective votes of the Presidential Party due to the election of more than 5%of the people's party legislators elections in 2020. Will he run on behalf of the people's party?Or partnership with Guo Taiming, chairman of Hon Hai Group?Or there are other possible arrangements and attract the attention of all parties.Therefore, how the political parties will nominate the results of the election.

We use the most commonly used politicians in the presidential election to review the more likely and evil levels of the three most likely candidates in the minds of the people in order to analyze the possible future development.

Although these three politicians have always attracted much attention, it is rare to continue to observe the degree of evil and evil.We selected the "Taiwan Election and Democratic Survey" in the telephone interview information conducted in December 2020 and December 2021 and September 2022. Because of the continuous tracking of the good and evil level of the above three political figures, it is quite suitable for two or two pairs of duelAnalysis.The special feature of the telephone interview information is that about 40 % of the "only mobile phone" users who only use mobile phones and do not use the phone, so each successful visit to about 1,200 respondents, including about 700 cities (solid lines (solid lines (solid lines (solid lines (solid lines (solid lines (solid linesCalls) Residents and 500 only mobile phones are better to cover the sample.

Investigate the following questions and ask the respondents: "We want to ask you how to feel about several politicians. If 0 means you don't like him very much, 10 means you like him very much.How much is xxx? "

It can be found that in the three surveys, Hou Youyi was the best, from 6.48 points to 7.20 points.Followed by Lai Qingde, from 5.98 points to 6.34 points.As for Ke Wenzhe, the degree of good and evil between the three people was low, and it was about 5.40 points to 5.69 points.Of course, we also found that in December 2020, the public's evaluation scores of Hou Youyi and Lai Qingde were high. In September 2022, maybe because the local elections are imminent, the blue and green camps have confronted various issues, and they have brought three people to make three places.Politicians are affected, so the degree of good evil degree is the lowest.This also shows that with the development of the election, candidates or politicians will inevitably affect the preferences of the public because of related elections to offensive and defensive.

If the information of September 2022 is used, let the three politicians capture the opposite and two comparisons. You can get the following discovery: When comparing the good and evil level of Lai Qingde and Hou Youyi, the public likes Hou Youyi to be better than Lai Qingde than Lai Qingde.The proportion is 40 %, Lai Qing is better than about 20 % of Hou Youyi, and the other two eight pairs of two people are not different.If Lai Qingde compared with Ke Wenzhe, Lai Qingde was better than Ke Wenzhe about 37.4%, and Ke Wenzhe was better than Lai Qingde to 37.1%. The two were similar, and there was no difference in the good and evil of the two.If the difference between Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe, we found that nearly 50 % of the people like Hou Youyi better than Ke Wenzhe. About 1 % of the people like Ke Wenzhe than Hou Youyi, but there is no difference between the two of them.

Of course, there is still a year before the presidential election in January 2024. The competition in Taiwan's party and important events in the international or cross -strait may have an important impact on the results of the election.

In terms of competition in Taiwan in Taiwan, the coexistence between political parties and the integration within political parties will have an impact.For example, Lai Qingde of the Democratic Progressive Party is far less than Ke Wenzhe in the support of voters under the age of 40. If Lai Qingde can find a candidate with the advantage of young votes to serve as deputy, if Lai Qingde has been nominated in the party, it will definitely change the whole situation.Relatively speaking, the current nomination direction of the Kuomintang and the People's Party is relatively uncertain, and after the local elections in 2018, all walks of life may be motionless because of confidence.

Of course, from the above survey information, it can be found that if Hou Youyi is willing to accept the recruitment of the remarks, and Ke Wenzhe is willing to accept "Blue and White" and commit to serving as a deputy, he will have a great help for the development of young tickets.In addition, cross -strait relations have been tight in recent years. Maintles military cranes, military exercises against Taiwan, Taiwan will extend the military service period and the National Defense Authorization Law passed by the United States at the end of last year. The possibilities of the follow -up are worth observing.

Therefore, the "war" and "peace" risks of cross -strait relations, Taiwan's own economic development, and discussions between other society and people's livelihood issues may be an important factor in the 2024 presidential election.

The author is a special researcher at the Election Research Center of Taiwan Politburo

Professor and Director of the Department of Political Science

If Lai Qingde is nominated within the party, he can find a candidate with the advantage of young votes as deputy, and will definitely change the whole situation.Relatively speaking, the current nomination direction of the Kuomintang and the People's Party is relatively uncertain, and after the local elections in 2018, all walks of life may be motionless because of confidence.