Han Heyuan

Recently, a Chinese economy published by the author 13 years ago will repeat the same mistakes in Japan?Bookmarks, they knew inexplicably on the Internet platform "fire".A post of "how to evaluate the Chinese economy of Han and Yuan will repeat the same mistakes in Japan?" In fact, it has obtained a view of 2.02 million. Comments and comments and posts may be as high as tens of thousands.One of the most praised comments, the number of rewards is as high as 5700.In addition, many people have made videos, or open a column for this post, and continue to discuss this topic in depth.

This book and such a title are naturally not welcomed by netizens.Although not popular, from these thousands of comments, it can still be divided into two factions.A netizen named "deep love", vividly summarized and summarized this: "God God: China also matches? Pink: Japan also match? This is a non -pleasing way on both sides, it is recommended to rewrite."

"God of God" is a Chinese online population, and often called God friends. In the beginning, it refers, "Jing" Northern Europe.The word was later extended to refer to those who are relatively arrogant and self -proclaimed, and felt that they were smart on the social media platform, and often laughed at the statement and behavior of patriotism."Pink" belongs to the Chinese Internet buzzword. The word originally originated from the literary website Jinjiang Literature City. It was named because the website used pink as the background and the female user ratio was very high.In the early stage, the youth groups represented by overseas students or immigrants in the website began to express patriotism, and they began to be called "Jinjiang worrying girl group" or "pink".After the emoji war and the emperor's expedition, "pink" was generally referred to as Chinese patriotic netizens born after 1990.

According to the definition of this netizen, the author of the highest praise is undoubtedly a typical "god god". His comments are: "I can really repeat the same mistakes in Japan.The GDP with a per capita $ 40,000 is enough for you to look up, and you want to focus on the same mistakes? "His view is quite representative in the comments with similar views.

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The "Pink" camp is obviously not so polite. In their opinion, this book is simply singing China.Different from "God", they are more accustomed to using words to prove that "the Chinese economy will repeat the same mistakes in Japan" is absurd and a complete pseudo -proposition.For example, a netizen named "Yiming Xue News Agency" wrote: "Just now, it is obvious that the realistic pattern has repeated the name of the Chinese economy to the Chinese economy./P>

He said: "The fundamental problem of the world today is whether everyone wants to participate in the global new economic order dominated by China, or continue to hug the US emperor who eats you without spitting bones and cutting your leek without leaving roots.The problem of the older economic order dominated by the world. The current reality is that more and more countries have made choices and have joined the new order established by China (Belt and Road, SCO, RMB settlement), and alsoThere are many countries, on the way to join ... This implies two premises: First, China has now gone out of a completely independent and new economic road. SecondThe influence is still very powerful. "

The netizen did show self -confidence in the Chinese economy and Chinese model.He continued the world economic pattern of the world's economic pattern since the subprime crisis in 2008.But from reality, such as technical sanctions on China, to this day, the world economic structure has not changed. Developed countries represented by the United States are still leading and dominant forces in global economic strength and forces.The real change is just Japan, Japan, Japan, Japan, and China, the second largest economy in the world today.

But whether it is "the god under this post" or "pink", it is highly consistent at one point, that is, most of them have not read this booklet, let alone interestTo understand what the Japanese mistakes referred to?

In this booklet, the author's so -called Japanese mistakes describes the following state: that is, the export -oriented model of the population aging is unable to go, the trade friction is intensified, the long -term low interest rate policy is causedFalse and real estate bubbles finally lead to loss (economic stagnation).

It must be further explained that in this booklet, the author did not say that China would face Japanese -style trouble at the time.It will be caught in the abyss of 'stagnation and expansion', so what I can say is that this argument is wrong. "But as I pointed out in the preface," But in this bookThe current Chinese economy has indeed entered a turning point. It is also true. "

In recent years, the world economic structure has undergone tremendous changes.This change does not show its leap development in terms of big data and artificial intelligence, and also in the field of traditional industries: with the increasing cost of land in China, and the disappearance of the demographic dividend with cheap labor costs, a new round of international internationallyThe trend of industrial transfer has inevitably emerged.

In recent years, South Asian countries such as Vietnam and South Asian countries such as Southeast Asian countries and India are copying China's past successful experience, that is, the production of industrial finished products with low labor costs and land costs.

With the transfer of international industries, China will not be able to enjoy the benefits brought by the development of emerging industries such as Vietnam and India.On the contrary, because emerging industries joined the team, it attracted the fatigue of China's domestic industries.Recently, the Sino -US trade friction has shown that there is still a great gap between China and Western countries including the United States, including the United States.

In other words, with the background of international industrial transfer formed by the rise in China's land cost and labor costs, China will likely face such an embarrassing situation in the future: it cannot be with Vietnam, India and other countries in low -end products.Competition; in terms of high -end products, it is impossible to compete with European and American countries.China is likely to be embarrassed to stuck in the middle.This is the embarrassment of Japan in the past 30 years.

If China does not recognize this, it will still be on the old way in real estate and monetary policy. When it is really stuck in the middle, it will undoubtedly have the same illness with Japan.More importantly, Japan is rich in cards, and the foundation is obviously much thicker than China.

The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist

In the future, China is likely to face such an embarrassing situation: it is impossible to compete with Vietnam, India and other countries in low -end products; and high -end products cannot compete with European and American countries.China is likely to be embarrassed to stuck in the middle.This is the embarrassment of Japan in the past 30 years.