Yanchenzhou: Lai Qingde Xu overcomes the ＂three inertia＂ of Taiwans politics

Source: Taiwan Newspaper

Author: Yan Chenzhou

Since Taiwan's direct election in 1996, there are three inertia: First, the current president is successfully re -elected, but the two political parties have rotated after the ruling. There has never been a single party for more than eight consecutive years.Second, after the election, he was a politician of Vice President, and no one could become the president.Third, those who have served as the cabinet also chose the president.These three inertia have their own factors behind them, which has profoundly affected the power change of Taiwan's politics for more than 20 years.

Under the leadership of Cai Yingwen, the DPP government has entered the end of the second term; Lai Qingde, who is preparing to compete for the next president, was the president of the Executive President and the current vice president.A inertia opposite.Under the special constitutional system of Taiwan, these three inertia continues is not accidental. Lai Qingde must overcome the three inertia of Taiwan's political development in the process of campaign in the next year.

inertia one: eight years of political party rotation

In addition to Lee Teng -hui elected the first citizen directly elected the president in 1996, because he had served as two non -civilian presidents and decided not to run for re -election, the President of Bian, Ma, and Cai Cai always gave the current president a chance to re -election.EssenceHowever, in the end of 2008 and 2016, under different political situations, voters preferred to "change the party to do", chose to make the regime rotate, and they also voted against the ruling party before the rotation.Essence

Today, the DPP is about to be in power for eight years. Although Tsai Ing -wen has not been like Chen Shui -bian and Ma Ying -jeou's government, there is a problem of people's trust collapse, but the local elections in 2022 were defeated.Society still has the atmosphere of governing power.Lai Qingde must persuade the people of Taiwan to continue to vote for the DPP led by him instead of giving the Kuomintang a chance?

The inertia of a political party rotation in eight years will be the primary problem of Lai Qingde.It is his ability to excel. Compared with other candidates, he has an absolute advantage, or is the DPP ruling team better than the Kuomintang. Which of the current ruling party is not good at doing, and he will do it if he does not do it in the wild party?Lai Qingde's answer sheet is an important line of defense for Taiwan voters to decide "this 'not' party rotation."

inertia 2: the head of the head of state is silent

Vice President is the head of state. Except for the Constitution, in addition to the "when the president is absent, the vice president is successively served" and "when the president cannot depend on the reason, the vice presidential power is on behalf of his authority", there is no responsibility for the vice president's power and responsibilityFurther regulation has also caused vice presidents to have no role in political practice.This point, from Lien Chan, he also served as the executive president with vice presidential presidents, and caused constitutional disputes to know his operating logic; Lu Xiulian, Xiao Wanchang, Wu Dunyi, and Chen Jianren were rarely focused on politics during their tenure.

The issues of the vice presidential power and responsibility, and the thoughts of the president's choice of vice presidential candidates, often have complementary considerations.But it can be certain that after 1996, except for Lien Chan for twice to run for the president twice, the remaining vice presidents, although it is more than 10,000 people, but even the edge of the party on behalf of the party is not constructedarrive.

Of course, Lai Qingde cannot be compared with the aforementioned vice president.Lai Qingde, who served as Vice President in 2020, knew that the Vice President was difficult to become a focus. Under his tacit understanding with Tsai Ing -wen, he visited the United States as a candidate before taking office.During the term of office, no matter whether to visit AIA and the US Vice President Harris, "happened to meet", or "personal status" to go to Japan to hang up to Abe, it is not difficult to see that Lai Qingde tried to try to highlight his vice presidential power, and he could highlight himself to highlight his own.trace.

In the four major referendums in 2021, Lai Qingde also let him stand on the stage of promoting the "four disagreements".Waiting for the Battle of the Democratic Progressive Party's ruling blueprint.At that time, he and Su Zhenchang and Zheng Wencan arranged the schedule of schedule, which was also the focus of politics.Lai Qingde's desire to play "vice president with sound" is the best portrayal to break through this political inertia.

inertia 3: High weight loss is difficult to take over

Taiwan has been replaced by the president of 17 years from the President's direct election for more than 26 years. The Pavilion is a highly damaged position, which shows it.In the current government system of Taiwan, the president is considered "right and no responsibility", and the executive director is often regarded as the president of the president.Once the political responsibility is responsible for getting off the stage, it is equivalent to suffering the errors and problems of all ruling teams.It is not surprising that there is no Executive President of the President of the President so far.

After the democratization of Taiwan's politics, it also calculated from the direct election of the President in 1996. He served as a politician of the Chief Executive President. Later, he became Vice President., Wu Dunyi, Lai Qingde.The first three were determined to stop at the vice president, and Lai Qingde was challenging the inertia.

Lai Qingde took office in September 2017 and stepped down in January 2019. He was responsible for the total resignation of local elections in just one year and four months.It is inevitable to become a baggage.For Lai Qingde, fortunately, in the 2020 presidential election, as a victorious partner with Tsai Ing -wen, he dulped in the impact of his previous defeat because of the local election defeat.

These three inertia are not independent, but for each other.Historical spots can be examined: Politicians who have served as Pavilion, who wanted to attack the president, because the overall governance results were not consumed, the "fruit" rotated in the next eight years;Rotating the inertia, even as an attempt to serve as Vice President and Pavilion, the political life is ended eight years later, and the rotation of the regime has become "cause" here.

Under various internal conditions and external environment, the DPP has not thought of nominated Lai Qingde to the president of 2024, but Lai Qingde has more difficulties in the face of the above three Taiwan politics inertia.The internal and external challenges.However, even if the trajectory of Taiwan's political and contemporary history does not stand on Lai Qingde, it does not mean that Lai Qingde cannot be the first person to break the inertia.

If Lai Qingde can win the president in 2024, he will be the first president to serve as vice president or executive president.Political appearance will also be rewritten.