Jin Jianguo

According to the United Nations, the global population reached 8 billion on November 15 last year.The emergence of this milestone is attributed to the advancement and development of global public health and nutrition, bringing a long -term life span, but it also brings many challenges to social security and national medical care.As a Chinese who grew up on the mainland, it will naturally have a question of 8 billion people.Population problems have always been accompanied by contemporary Chinese history, and it is actually an upside -down problem in China.

In July 1957, Economist Ma Yinchu published a new population theory, which systematically discussed China's population problem and proposed the proposition of "China's population growth is too fast".He used specific figures to explain the problem of excessive increase in population, and to draw conclusions of implementation.Mao Zedong originally appreciated Ma Yinchu's view of family planning as a part of the planned economy. However, in the context of "anti -rightist movement" and "Great Leap Forward", Ma Yinchu's view of population growth is very different from Mao's "many people and many benefits".

In May 1958, Chen Bo, the theorist of the mainland government, reached Peking University and said: "Ma Lao wants to review." On July 1, Kang Sheng, an alternate member of the Political Bureau of the Central Political Bureau of the mainland government in charge of cultural and educational work, went to Peking University to work."I heard that you have a 'new population theory', and its authors are also surnamed horses."Thomas Malassas was remembered in history with population theory.According to his understanding of the population, the number of people that can support human society depends on living materials, and the number of living materials will be scarce due to the reduction of the marginal income of the land.He proposed to reduce the necessity of population growth in a compulsory way, so he was deducted on anti -society and anti -human hats by future generations.Comparing Ma Yinchu to Marsas, Ma Yinchu's fate in China can be imagined.

After the

The Cultural Revolution was over, the Chinese economy was awake again. At this time, the population problem came.Too much population is the reason why the city cannot achieve full employment. It was thought that Ma Yinchu was wrongly criticized that year."Ma Yinchu, 300 million people" became the consensus of the entire China in the 1980s. It seems that poverty is also because the increased population consumes food and supplies.

In the summer of 1979, Hu Yaobang, then Secretary -General and Organization Minister of the Mainland Government, rehabilitated Ma Yinchu. "Chairman Mao had to listen to Ma Lao's words at that time, how can China's population today exceed the 1 billion level.Ah! Catch a wrong person and increase hundreds of millions of people. We should never make such a mistake. The Communist Party should swear and no longer be allowed to consolidate scientists and intellectuals! "At this time, Ma Yinchu was 98 years old, his lower limbs were paralyzed, and his ears were a bit.Back, he listened to the notice that rehabilitated him on the wheelchair, and only said a faint sentence: "20 years ago, the Chinese population was not many.

In 1980, the mainland government called for 38 million party members to have only one child.At the same time, a series of measures have gradually rolled out, the goal is to reduce the population growth rate to zero by 2000.

Is this goal reasonable?Can it be achieved?Look at Mo Yan's novel frog to see one side of the family planning.The frog has written a history of fertility in rural northern China for nearly 30 years, which is the great history of spiritual changes caused by the implementation of family planning policy. It has real helplessness and historical choices.Those who do everything possible to violate the policy of "superb birth" are for the sake of passing the ancestors and continuing the incense.In the absence of a complete pension and medical security system, these concepts are always endless and cannot be eliminated by policy.

Mo Yan used the novel to observe the family planning policy from micro -individual and family observation, while Yi Fuxian examined the population of the Chinese population in all aspects.He began to study China's population issue since 2000, questioning the rationality of family planning policies, and took the lead in setting off the wave of family planning.In 2007, the big nest written by Yi Fuxian: Chinese family planning was published in Hong Kong, and it was published in the mainland in 2013.From 2007 to 2013, the transformation from the banned book to a circulating book showed that the problem of exposure of family planning policy began to be valued by senior management.

In October 2015, China has ended for decades of only children's policy, and married couples have been allowed to have two children to reverse the problem of rapid aging labor.Further in May 2021, a couple can have three children.Data in November 2022 show that 13 of the 31 provinces and cities have naturally negatively growing, including economic developed areas such as Jiangsu.The objective reason is that many families are hesitant to fertility, and the public cannot do without the concerns of high housing prices and reduced income.However, China's population has reached a scale of 1.4 billion, which is much more than Ma Yinchu's "now".

How much is the Chinese population?In the 1970s, the population was 800 million, and the growth of family planning policy control must be introduced; the population of 1.4 billion in the 1920s was 1.4 billion, so it should be further increased to control the growth, but the policy of encouraging three children of childbirth should be implemented.If the current policy is correct, the policy of the 1970s was wrong; if the policy was correct at that time, it was wrong now.Why is it in a conflict of contradiction?The philosopher Hegel believes that history is the development of free will and the evolution of the Chinese population problem, that is, the administrative means of the free will of the mainland government to control the performance of the population with the administrative means of planning economy.

Economist Hayek said: Why the planned economy is scared, and the concept of centralized management of economic activities still makes most people feel cold, not only in this task, there is great difficulty, but moreDue to everything, the fear caused by a unique center.When we make every effort and consciously create the future based on some lofty ideals, we actually unknowingly create the opposite result of what we have always struggled for it. Do people still imagine a greater tragedy than this?

Soviets starved millions of Ukrainians

The planned economy and collective farm during the Soviet Union caused millions of Ukrainians to starve to death.This is one of the reasons why the Ukraine nation hates Russia and one of the powerful driving drivers for Ukraine to fight against Russia's invasion.Indian economist Amitia Sen pointed out that in modern history, there have been no major famines in democratic countries.The reason why the planned economy leads to famine in Ukraine is the "deadly self -negative" of the planned economy.

Economist Hayek believes that human rationality is limited. Human confidence and rationality can defeat nature and create a reasonable order.Hayek has strong doubts about this. He believes that most of the results of human civilization are not rational products, including language, morality, law, and so on.

According to the new and old population theory of Marsas and Ma Yinchu, too many population will always have a burden on survival conditions.Does the world's population 8 billion have a bigger and bigger burden on the world?Liu Zhenmin, deputy secretary -general of the United Nations in charge of economic and social affairs, warned in a press release: "The rapid population growth has made it more difficult to eliminate poverty, eliminate hunger and malnutrition, and expand the hygiene and education system."It is essentially the explanation of the population theory of Malassas and Ma Yinchu.

In August 2022, Cato Institute published a book of stories of prosperity of prosperity on the planet with unlimited rich planets by Cato Institute.The book dates back hundreds of products in 1850, including food, metal, minerals, finished products and fuel prices.Studies have found that the opposite of expectations, now resources have become richer, not more scarce.The richness of personal resources increases at a rate of 3.1%per year, turning around every 22.6 years.The richness of global resources increased at a rate of 4.4%, turning around every 16 years.The key reason is that everyone comes to this world and has a pair of hands. More importantly, there is a brain that can intelligently think and create new knowledge.

The view of the book seems to be consistent as Mao Zedong, but in Mao Zedong's vision,No economic and technological development was found on the positive impact of population.Marx and Engels believe that Marcus failed to recognize the key difference between humans and other species.Engels pointed out that in a capitalist society, science and technology "progress is infinite, at least as fast as the population."The emergence and development of the industrial revolution provides a broad space for technological progress, and technological progress provides possibilities for humans to overcome the scarcity of resources.Elon Musk pointed out that the civilization itself would collapse without more babies.Therefore, according to the views of Marxism and Mao Zedong, administrative family planning is definitely unnecessary.

In recent years, China has repeatedly relaxed fertility restrictions, but the number of births and birth rates has continued to decline. The reason is that ordinary people are full of hesitation of child -raising children. To a certain extent, it is related to the current political climate and economic environment.

The author is a commentator in Shanghai, China

When we make every effort and consciously create the future based on some lofty ideals, we actually unconsciously create the opposite of what we have always struggled for it. People also imagine that?